Does urbanization always lead to rural hollowing? Assessing the spatio-temporal variations in this relationship at the county level in China 2000–2015

Highlights

• Assess the spatio-temporal variations in the relationship between urbanization and RHI.

• Analyse the coupling coordination degree between urbanization and RHI.

• Inverted U-shaped curve was found between urbanization and RHI.

Abstract

The assessment of the spatial and temporal variations in the relationship between rural hollowing and urbanization is necessary for policy-making related to coordinating urban-rural development in counties with different levels and modes of urbanization. Based on county-level data in China from 2000 to 2015, this paper measured the urbanization rates and the rural hollowing index of counties and investigated the spatial and temporal variations in this relationship by spatial autocorrelation analysis and a coupling coordination degree model. The results show that (1) Positive correlations between urbanization and rural hollowing were found in overall, however, from the different stages of urbanization, differences were observed between this correlation. (2) Rural hollowing was positively spatially correlated with urbanization globally, but from a local perspective, four distinct patterns of local correlations existed between urbanization and rural hollowing. (3) The relationship between urbanization and rural hollowing changed from a slightly imbalanced coupling to a moderately balanced coupling, and specific spatial variations were identified. In particular, the degree of seriously imbalanced coupling is still increasing in the eastern and central inter-provincial border areas. (4) The dynamic relationship between urbanization and rural hollowing in China is illustrated by an inverted U-shaped curve due to the variations in the spatial distributions and temporal variances. Considering that most counties appear on the left side of the curve and are confronted with challenges that accelerate urbanization and rural hollowing in an urban-biased way, we suggest that decision makers incorporate suitable urbanization modes and comprehensive rural consolidation tools to boost urban-rural coordinated development.

Introduction

Urban and rural coordinated development is one of the goals of sustainable development (Kassiola, 2017; Li et al., 2018). Currently, the world is undergoing a continuous process of urbanization (United Nations, 2014), and urban areas are receiving more attention regarding economic improvement for concentrating the population, manufacturers and business activities, while rural areas are gradually in decline and hollowing (Wirth et al., 2016). The gap between urban and rural areas has seriously hindered the coordinated development of urban and rural areas (Afshar, 1998). Investigating the relationship between urbanization and rural hollowing is of great importance to the coordinated development of urban and rural areas (Zhang, 2016).

There seems to be a close relationship between urbanization and rural decline. In the early 19th century, Western European countries experienced the phenomenon of rural migration and depopulation due to urbanization and industrial development (Drudy, 1978). By the middle of the 20th century, almost all developed countries saw populations migrate from low-income rural areas to high-income urban areas. In the late 20th century, this phenomenon spread to developing countries such as Asia, Africa and Latin America (Berdegue et al., 2015; Cobbinah et al., 2015). Rural-urban migration significantly improved urbanization rates (Hsieh, 2014); however, as young labourers leave, rural areas experience shortages of agricultural producers, land abandonment and social and economic depression—the rural decline, which is often described as an inevitable process associated with urbanization (Markey et al., 2008).

Similar to the meaning of rural decline, rural hollowing is a widespread phenomenon in many developing countries (Carr and Kefalas, 2009; Li et al., 2018). The outward migration of rural population has resulted in many hollowing villages (Long et al., 2009), which were described as “outward expansion while inside hollowing, one family of more houses, building new houses without dismantling the old one, deserted new houses” (Liu et al., 2014). As for the vast rural areas, it is called “rural hollowing”, which refers to the phenomenon of vacant and ruined residential buildings in the inner villages (Liu et al., 2010), and in a comprehensive sight, which also refers to the recession of the population, spatial arrangement, and infrastructure of villages, as well as the socio-economic functions of villages (Li et al., 2016).

Rural hollowing is caused by various factors, including economic, socio-cultural, institutional-managerial and environmental factors (Long et al., 2009), such as loose approval for residential lot, disorderly expansion caused by lack of constructive planning, as well as environmental worsening of inner villages due to lack of investment in rural infrastructure. The driving forces behind rural hollowing are identified as the pull of urban and push of rural areas. Industrialization and urbanization create employment opportunities in urban areas, which “pull” the youthful labor forces out of rural areas, where are left aged and weaken rural management entities and aggravated rural hollowing (Liu et al., 2010, 2014).

Many studies have been carried out on the issue of urbanization, including the relevant theories (Harris and Todaro, 1970; Henderson, 2003; Lipton, 1993), spatio-temporal pattern (Bounoua et al., 2018; Wu et al., 2011), driving mechanisms (Antrop, 2004; Seto, 2011), modes (Yeh et al., 2017; Zhou et al., 2018) and environmental effects (Li et al., 2017; Sadorsky, 2014), and these studies have formed a systematic research system. On the issue of rural hollowing, researchers have focused on the definition, characteristics, causes, effects, response, and regularity of rural hollowing. Zhu et al. (2010) researched and investigated the degree of hollowing on a village scale. On a large scale, rural hollowing can be measured by multiple variables (Yang et al., 2012; Liu et al., 2013). Long et al. (2009) analysed the dynamics, stage characteristics, and driving mechanisms of rural hollowing. Li et al. (2014) proposed that hollowed villages have a life-cycle and conducted theoretical and empirical studies on the regulation of hollowed villages. Several studies have analysed a diverse array policies and measures used to address rural hollowing, including strategic planning (Tietjen and Jørgensen, 2016), bottom-up rural initiatives and revival (Li et al., 2016), and the restructuring of dispersed settlement patterns by land consolidation (Li et al., 2014; Pašakarnis and Maliene, 2010).

Current studies mostly focus on the issue of urbanization or rural hollowing separately; however, the relationship between urbanization and rural hollowing is still questioned. When studies use traditional analytical frameworks, the difference between regional development phases and natural socio-economic backgrounds are not well considered. Due to the differences in the stages of urbanization and regional conditions (Liu et al., 2017), the relationship between urbanization and rural hollowing may not be the same for all locations. However, prior studies have not conducted a quantitative assessment of the spatio-temporal variations in this relationship, especially at the county level. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between urbanization and rural hollowing to provide hard evidence to indicate whether urbanization always leads to rural hollowing.

As the largest developing country in the world, China has made great advances in urbanization since the reform and opening-up policy was released in 1978. The urbanization rate of the resident population is over 56% (NBS of PRC, 2016), with the majority of the contribution from rural out-migration. It is estimated that by 2050, China will experience the fastest urbanization and the largest reduction in its rural population (United Nations, 2014). However, due to the long-term “urban-bias" policy (Chen et al., 2013; Xing and Zhang, 2017), the urban-rural dual structure and the further strengthening of the urban-rural development gap have made China's rural hollowing problem more complicated than that of other countries (Yang and Liu, 2012).

The aims of this paper are to quantify the spatio-temporal variations in the relationship between urbanization and rural hollowing, and to reveal whether a region's urbanization will always lead to rural hollowing at different urbanization stages and socio-economic conditions. Based on a theoretical analysis of the association mechanism of urbanization and rural hollowing, this paper measured the urbanization rate and rural hollowing index in China at the county level and used spatial analysis methods to quantify the spatial and temporal variations in this relationship. This study would contribute to the literature by identifying the current situation of urbanization and rural hollowing in counties in China, by examining the constraints of and potential for the coordinated development of urban and rural areas in different regions and by proposing some practical suggestions.