Assessing the policy impacts on non-ferrous metals industry's CO2 reduction: Evidence from China

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.05.015

Journal of Cleaner Production

Volume 192, 10 August 2018, Pages 252-261

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.05.015 Get rights and content

Highlights

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We model the policy impacts on non-ferrous metals industry (NMI) ’s CO2 reduction based on decomposition method.
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Direct and indirect CO2 emission are considered in the study.
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CO2 emission of Chinese NMI is very likely to peak before 2030 under current policies.
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Chinese energy efficiency policies of NMI should be updated.

Abstract

The nonferrous metals industry (NMI) consumes a great amount of energy, and is a typical high CO₂ emission sector. The NMI is one of the eight most concerning industries in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. In this study, we summarized policies that impact Chinese NMI's development and grouped them into three types: energy structure policies, energy efficiency improving policies and production-scale policies. Based on those quantitative policy goals, a bottom-up model has been developed to study the CO₂ emissions of five NMI's major sub-sectors from 2010 to 2030. The results showed that if China's central government could stick to the CO₂ reduction policy strength of 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020), then the copper, lead and zinc industries can reach their emissions peak before 2030. Furthermore, if the Chinese government restricts the production of primary aluminum of 46.2 million tons in 2025, then the CO₂ emissions of China's non-ferrous industry could reach the peak in that year, when the CO₂ emissions peak is 297 million tons. Having benefited from the effective CO₂ reduction policies of NMI, China may reach its ambitious CO₂ peaking goals more easily.

Introduction

The nonferrous metals industry (NMI) is a typical energy intensive, high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission industry (Wei et al., 2011). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report lists the NMI as one of the eight most concerning industries (Fischedick et al., 2014). In 2016, the world's NMI produced 1.06 billion tons CO₂ and was responsible for 3% of global CO₂ emission(Janssens-Maenhout et al., 2017). China is world's largest producer and consumer of non-ferrous metals products, in particular, China's total production of aluminum, copper, lead, zinc and magnesium accounts for 49% of the world in 2016 (Wei et al., 2016). Due to the rapid growth in production, the CO₂ emissions of the Chinese NMI increased significantly. The annual growth rate of NMI's CO₂ emission was 9.4% during 2010–2015(CNMIA, 2009–2017). Under these conditions, the proportion of NMI's CO₂ emission of China's total CO₂ emission increased from 1.8% to 2.6% during 2010–2015(NBS, 2009–2016). China announced that its CO₂ emissions will peak by 2030, but the rapid growth of NMI's CO₂ emission brought huge challenges to China's ambitious goals. Hence, the Chinese central government introduced a series of policies and measures to control the growth in the 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period (2016–2020) (Mi et al., 2017c). It now becomes necessary to evaluate whether the current policies can meet the requirement of China's 2030 CO₂ peaking goal(Mi et al., 2017a). In this study, we group NMI-related CO₂ reduction policies into three categories and extract the quantitative policy goals from them. Based on historical data and policy goals, a bottom-up model is developed to calculate the annual CO₂ emission of the NMI from 2010 to 2030. By analyzing the results of our evaluation, we can identify which NMI-related CO₂ reduction policies are effective and can recommend how to improve the insufficient ones.

This evaluation is based on real policy goals and historical data. Policy makers could measure the strength of current polices and find quantitative solutions through this(Mi et al., 2017b). The earlier the deficiencies are found, the easier it will be for the government to improve these policies. The frame of this study is universal to all kind of industries and can be applied to various policy evaluations.

Section snippets

Literature review

Research on the CO₂ reduction of the NMI has been abundant. Generally, there are four highly emphasized subjects.

1) Calculations of the energy saving and CO₂ reduction potentials of the NMI. Lin and Zhang used a cointegration model to estimate electricity intensity of Chinese NMI, and to predict the future electricity saving potential in 2020 (Lin and Zhang, 2013). Wen and Li developed a technology system within a LEAP model to estimate energy conservation and CO₂ emissions reduction potentials

Methodology

Base on the research review above, it is clearly that studies of policy impact are insufficient. In order to assess the policy impacts on NMI's CO₂ reduction, we build the following framework to instruct this study.

Results and discussions

Based on the methodologies mentioned above, we can estimate the CO₂ intensity of thermal power generation by using ordinary least squares methods. Next, CO₂ intensity, production scale and energy efficiency of NMI's sub-sectors can be calculated based on the quantitative policy goals we summarized. With the annual calculation results from 2016 to 2030, we can evaluate the comprehensive CO₂ reduction effects produced by current policies.

Conclusions and policy implications

In this paper, using the idea of Kaya Identity, we summarize the national policies, standards, codes and measures related to NMI, and group the quantitative policies into three types: energy structure policies, energy efficiency improving policies and production scale policies. Based on the historical data and national policies, we estimate the CO₂ emissions of five NMI's major sub-sectors in 2010–2030.

Through the assessment of energy structure policy, we can find that NMI's CO₂ reduction

Acknowledgement

The authors gratefully acknowledge the support from the National Key R & D Program (Grant No. 2016YFA0602603), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71521002, 71642004, 71673026). The paper also benefitted from the participants at a seminar at Beijing Institute of Technology.

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Assessing the policy impacts on non-ferrous metals industry's CO2 reduction: Evidence from China

Highlights

Abstract

Introduction

Section snippets

Literature review

Methodology

Results and discussions

Conclusions and policy implications

Acknowledgement

Energy

Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev.

Energy Pol.

Energy Pol.

J. Clean. Prod.

Energy Pol.

J. Environ. Manag.

Resour. Pol.

J. Clean. Prod.

J. Clean. Prod.

J. Clean. Prod.

Inter. J. Greenhouse Gas Control

J. Clean. Prod.

The Yearbook of Nonferrous Metals Industry of China

Assessing the policy impacts on non-ferrous metals industry's CO₂ reduction: Evidence from China