Identifying the main contributors of air pollution in Beijing

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Abstract

Air pollution has become an emerging environmental issue in developing countries like China in the last two decades. Sulphur dioxide (SO2) is one of the major air pollutants that poses significant risks in many areas undergoing a process of industrialization such as Beijing. Realizing the main factor causing environmental quality changes is the key to solving this problem. By using an extended version of IPAT model, this paper aims to identify the main contributors of air pollution in Beijing from 1989 to 2012. The result shows that the most influential factors affecting air pollution in Beijing are affluence and emission intensity. From analyzing the historical background, we conclude that the air pollution change in Beijing is heavily policy-driven.

Introduction

Air pollution is one of the most serious environmental issues in many developing countries (Kanada et al., 2013). Indoor air pollution produced by the combustion of biomass fuels as well as coal in poorly ventilated heating and cooking environments causes significant mortality and morbidity from respiratory diseases, particularly among children. Globally, urban air pollution is responsible for significant mortality every year, mostly as a result of heart and lung diseases (Bolund and Hunhammar, 1999). Another effect of urban air pollution is that it might induce biodiversity loss which may be irreversible (Bolund and Hunhammar, 1999). For example, it has been discovered long ago that air pollution has an influence on forest ecosystems throughout the temperate regions of the world. If the effect of air pollution exposure on some components of the ecosystem biota is inimical then a Class II relationship1 is established (Smith, 1974). Although most recent attentions have been focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, due to concerns on global climate change, local air pollution is still a critical issue that poses an acute threat to both public health and natural ecosystems (BP, 2012, Chen et al., 2012, Chung et al., 2011, Kan et al., 2012, Lu et al., 2010, Smith et al., 2011, Streets and Waldhoff, 2000, Tang et al., 2010). Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is one of the major air pollutants that poses significant risks in many developing countries undergoing a process of industrialization. Many studies have found that SO2 pollution causes severe respiratory problems and significant ecosystem degradation due to acid rain formation (Guttikunda et al., 2003, Su et al., 2011).

Currently, air quality in China is becoming a world-concerning issue. Not only has it contributed to regional environment degradation, but also severely affected local residents' living quality. Especially, the air quality in Beijing and other megacities has become an urgent challenge to the Chinese government. The Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection Data Center reports that out of the thirty one provinces and municipalities, Beijing is among the worst air quality provinces, ranked second to last (Liu, 2013). Realizing the main factor causing air quality changes is the key to solve this problem. Hao et al.’s study showed the high SO2 emission induced a significant impact on the urban area (Hao et al., 2007). SO2 reduction plays an increasingly significant role in improvement of air pollution in China due to its popular appearances in pollution abatement methods (Liu and Wang, 2013). To improve air quality, Beijing government has formulated plans to reform air-related administrative management systems and increase administrative efficiency. Beijing's twelfth five-year plan set the goal to have 80% of days achieving national Grade II or better air quality in Beijing (Jiang, 2014). The goal is to reduce major pollutant SO2 by 8% by 2015 (KPMG, 2011). Control measures such as fuel substitution, flue gas desulfurization, dust control improvement and flue gas denitration has greatly mitigated the SO2 and PM10 pollution, especially alleviating the pressure on the urban area to reach the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (Hao et al., 2007).

Air quality is closely associated with human activities (Pehoiu, 2008). Up to now there have been many different approaches to measure the effects of human activities to the environment. Some researchers used both CO2 and SO2 as indicators of climate change and air pollution in Britain to measure environmental quality changes using a temperature matrix to perform a number of parallel analyses (Balling and Idso, 1992), others use IPAT (I = Impact, P = Population, A = Affluence, and T = Technology) model to analyze how different drivers (including economic development, income levels, urbanization and other socio-economic drivers) contribute to the growth of CO2 emissions in China (Feng et al., 2009). Furthermore, Wang et al. (2013) has examined the impact factors of population, economic level, technology level, urbanization level, industrialization level, service level, energy consumption structure and foreign trade degree on the energy-related CO2 emissions in Guangdong Province, China from 1980 to 2010 using an extended STIRPAT model which is a stochastic model of IPAT using regression on population, Affluence and Technology. Amongst the current approaches utilized by researchers, IPAT has become a popular tool to identify drivers of air pollution impacts due to its simplicity, transparency, and demand of less data.

Through applying an extended IPAT model, this paper aims to identify the main contributors of environmental quality changes in Beijing. In this research, sulphur dioxide (SO2) is used as the indicator of air pollution.

Section snippets

Data and method

Population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP by industries and energy consumption data are collected from Beijing Statistical Yearbooks, and SO2 emission data are obtained from Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau.

The IPAT identity is a widely recognized formula for analyzing the effects of human activities on the environment (York et al., 2003). The IPAT equation could be used to determine which single variable is the most damaging to the environment, as well as recognizing that

Results/interpretation

The results of this research are classified into six time frames: 1989–1995 (the relaxed immigration policy after Open-Door Policy), 1995–1999 (Asia economic crisis), 1999–2003 (after the economic crisis and closing of small factories), 2005–2008 (pre-Olympics), 2009–2012 (post Olympics). There are three visual representations. One is the variation in percentage in relation to its previous year (Fig. 1). Another is the trend of each variable and how it changes overtime (Fig. 2a–f). The third

Relaxed immigration policy after open-door policy 1989–1995

From 1989 to 1995 population and affluence contributed the most to air pollution, being 264% and 367%, while the economic structure and emission intensity had ameliorated this by 284% and 219%. Thus, the overall impact in this period decreased by 9%.

The economic openness of China began in the provinces of the South-East. The creation of “Special Economic Zones” and of “Open Economic Zones” was the master piece of the open-door policy. During 1989 to 1995, migrants tended to concentrate in three

The East Asian financial crisis 1995–1999

During this period, although affluence was the only factor that contributed to air pollution impact, the rate has slowed down significantly by 279%. Therefore, emission intensity became dominant factor (120% of the change in SO2 emissions) for the change in SO2 emissions which overwhelmed the effects of affluence and led to a net decrease in emissions by 39% over this time frame.

While the economy in Beijing kept increasing overall in this time period, the growth rate has dropped sharply.

After economic crisis and closing small factories 1999–2003

During this time, there was an overall reduction in pollution which resulted in a 22% decrease in air pollution impact. Affluence had impacted the environment by 150% but this was balanced by energy intensity and emission intensity which contributed −115% and −171% to the change in SO2 emissions.

During this period, the environment kept on improving. One of the causes was that the Capital Steel Corp6

Reopening small factories 2003–2005

During this period, emission intensity continued to contribute to the improvement of environmental quality but was overwhelmed by affluence which degraded the environment by 443%.

At the beginning of the 10th Five-Year Plan, SO2 emissions were declining. Though successful in general, the rate of improvement had slowed in these years (Figure c, d, e). In the latter part of the 10th Five-Year Plan, energy efficiency was seriously underfunded, and the Chinese government emphasized economic growth

Pre-Olympics 2005–2008

During this period, there was a significant reduce in pollution of 35%. Population, affluence and energy intensity had contributed to the increase in pollution but they have small magnitudes. The most significant one is population. The contributing factor to environmental quality improvement was emission intensity being 131%.

The most dramatic reduction in pollution was from 2007 to 2008. This was due to the Olympics game held in 2008. To prepare for the 2008 Olympic Games, China adopted a

Post Olympics 2009–2012

Although population and affluence had contributed to the increase in SO2 emissions, emission intensity's further decline by 147% had brought down the overall emissions to −24%. However, the rate dropped from −35% to −24%, showing a noticeable reduction in rate of improvement. The emission standard had relaxed but the changes in population and affluence was very little as well.

After stringent removal of industrial companies and harsh regulations to reduce pollution, the economy had paid the

Discussion and conclusion

To identify the major driver that contributed to air quality changes in Beijing during its rapid growth, our study examined the impact of population, affluence, economic structure, energy intensity and emission intensity over the most recent two decades (1989–2012) using an extended IPAT approach. Emission intensity was the most influential factor to impact on improvement of air pollution in Beijing out of all five factors. Results indicate although that the population and affluence increase

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