A comprehensive decision-making model for risk management of supply chain
Research highlights
► Four risk clusters and their dynamic relation are identified in the SC. ► Main clue based on dual cycles promotes the stability of decision-making processes. ► Bilateral, unilateral and inter-circulative relationship are built into the model. ► The model improves the pertinence of risk management measures.
Introduction
With the logic integration of numerous risk managerial factors in an SC risk system, we commit to a comprehensive risk decision-making model to improve stability of decision-making process and pertinence of risk measurements selected. We explore an analysis path for the framework based on the operational process cycle (OPC) and the product life cycle (PLC), as well as SC organizational performance factors (OPF) and available risk operational practice (ROP). According to the dual-cycle’ role as a main clue of the decision-making process, the relationship of relevant risk managerial clusters is studied logically as well as ones among SC’s performance criteria and dual-cycle. Feature more we build the influence and correlation between OPC and PLC into the decision-making process. Thereafter, we design a decision-making model and selecting methodology for the model based on ANP theory. It would provide a deeper insight on SC risk management for practitioners involved.
Various factors contribute to the complexity of an SC risk system (Copra & Sodhi, 2004). Too many suppliers may make it very difficult to maintain a stable relationship. Cross-production processes increase complexity and uncertainty. A long logistics cycle affects availability and increases the risk of inventory obsolescence. Expanded product catalogues make service supporting system more complex and hence increase the cost and undermine its responsiveness.
There has been much research in the literature on the uncertainty and risks in SC management. Lin, Chang, Hung, and Pai (in press) developed a fuzzy system to simulate vendor managed inventory (VMI) that represents dynamic relationship in SC deeply. Alex (2007) provided a novel approach to model the uncertainties involved in the supply chain management using the fuzzy point estimation.
The work of Riddalls and Bennet (2002) generates generic conclusions about the dynamics of characteristic supply chains and promotes an awareness of the dynamical nature of supply chains and their drivers in broad terms. Particularly, they demonstrated how stock-outs in lower echelons can create a vicious circle of unstable influences in the supply chain. Copra and Sodhi’s (2004) research also highlights managers have to tailor their balanced and effective risk reduction strategic while encountering various category of risk in SC.
Tang (2006) suggested that robust strategies for mitigating supply chain disruptions and highlighted that these strategies not only can manage the inherent fluctuations efficiently regardless of the occurrence of major disruptions but also lead to a more resilient supply chain in the face of major disruptions.
Huchzermeier and Cohen (1996) showed that global coordination, logistics and postponement can enhance operational flexibility and reduce the system risk effectively. Thonemann and Bradley (2002) found that changes in manufacturing processes and in the SC structure can improve SC performance. Nagurney, Cruz, and Matsypura (2003) developed a model for the modelling, analysis and computation of solutions to global supply chains.
On the other hand, Kouvelis and Rosenblatt (2002) demonstrated the pervasive effects of financing, tariffs and taxation on shaping the manufacturing and distribution network of global firms. Goh, Lim, and Meng (2007) developed a model, based on the Moreau–Yosida regularization, to optimize the trade-off between profit and risk for a multi-stage global supply chain network.
While it is good to have an increasing number of choices for risk management methods and tools in practice (Huchzermeier, 2000), how to tailor them with their various functionalities and features is still a big challenge. In this paper, we respond to this challenge by proposing a decision-making model and a methodology for SC risk management.
The paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, various risk forms in SC management are considered in terms of performance. Possible reasons of their fluctuation and tactics are also analyzed based on SC operational processes, which include procurement, production, marketing, logistics and service. We are led to questions of how to incorporate an operational process into a product life cycle and what SC risk management methods should be chosen. In Section 3, we explore a basic dual-cycle model of SC risk management based on its operational process cycle (OPC) and product life cycle (PLC). With the basic decision-making model, in Section 4, we analyze some interactive mechanisms between the OPC and the PLC. Different value-added activities in SC operational processes have different risk features and influences at a special period of PLC. At the same time, the intrinsic features of each product life stage also affect the OPC and its value-added activities. In Section 5, based on the notion of an analytic network process (ANP) (Saaty, 1996), we design an analytic model for selection of an optimal combination of risk management methods. With this model, we carry out a quantitative analysis of the aforementioned mutual and multilateral influences among different risk clusters and elements. In Section 6, we make some concluding remarks on the strengths and limitations of our proposed decision-making model.
Section snippets
Supply chain risk forms
Grey and Shi, 2001, Smith and Huchzermeier, 2003 showed that a clear recognition of risk features is the very beginning of effective SC risk management, as illustrated in Fig. 1. By keeping a clear map in mind on the variety and inter-connectedness of SC risk, managers can tailor their operational tactics for the companies (Copra & Sodhi, 2004). Risk features may vary along SC operation processes. However, there are several ultimate forms of SC risks: quantity, cost, quality and time. These
A basic dual-cycle model
The performance of SC risk management is affected by many factors as mentioned above. We can classify these factors into four clusters: PLC including introduction, growth, maturity and decline, supported by an SC; OPC consisting of five value-added activities from procurement to service; organizational performance factors (OPF) indicating the strategic orientation of organization; and available risk operational practice (ROP). Each of these clusters has its own relevant risk managerial
Analysis of product life cycle (PLC)
As a very important strategic risk managerial factor in an SC, a PLC is usual divided into four stages. They are introduction stage, in which the orientation of investment and new product development are decided, growth stage with an increasing production competence and a built-up logistics network, mature stage with a high efficiency-cost ratio and decline stage to collect the remaining value of a product. All of these stages influence the SC risk level.
At the introduction stage of a PLC, a
Decision-making paths and methodology design
The analysis above has shown that among SC risk management clusters and elements, there are complex relationships, and they decide decision-making paths and computing methodology. These relationships are not only unilateral, but also bilateral, and even internally circulative. A supporting and cause-effect relationship is unilateral. For example, the goal of improving SC risk management competence is supported and decided by the four risk managerial clusters (A). There is a strong bilateral
Discussion and conclusions
The dynamic nature of an SC risk system means that the decision model for risk management should reflect the interaction and relationship among risk managerial factors and elements.
In this paper, we introduce a strategic model of a SC risk management decision-making system with operational process cycle (OPC) and product life cycle (PLC), which is subject to two assumptions. Ultimately, the risk is due to show in relevant forms including quantity, cost, quality and time, and available risk
Acknowledgment
The research work started while the first author was a Visiting Fellow at Warwick Business School, University of Warwick.
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