Original article
When factors of risk perception are an obstacle to risk representation: Earthquakes in Southern FranceQuand les facteurs de perception d’un risque constituent un obstacle à la représentation de ce même risque: le risque sismique dans le sud de la France

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erap.2018.12.001Get rights and content

Abstract

Introduction

More and more, researchers are turning to social representations to explore social thinking about risks, but this may not always be the best option. In particular, low to moderate risks possess inherent characteristics that can potentially constitute an obstacle to sociorepresentational processes, such as translating as “zero risk” in the eyes of the general public.

Objective

With this in mind, we conducted a study on the social representation of earthquakes in Southern France in order to better understand if low to moderate risks can be objects of social representation.

Method

After first exploring data available in the region on risk perception in relation to factors that condition the emergence of a social representation, we analysed the structure of the social representation of earthquakes in Southern France among earthquake-exposed inhabitants (n = 94), using three methods designed within the structural approach: prototypical analysis, similitude analysis and the Test of Context Independence.

Results

We identified an essentially descriptive representation with no practical orientation, leading us to discuss social representations in relation to collective representations.

Conclusion

We propose a clearer distinction between the two as well as arguments in favour of a standardised technique for verifying the existence of a social representation. We then attempt to situate both concepts within the Architecture of Social Thought model.

Résumé

Introduction

De plus en plus, les chercheurs se tournent vers les représentations sociales pour explorer la pensée sociale à propos des risques, mais ce n’est pas toujours forcément la meilleure option. En particulier, les risques faibles à modérés possèdent des caractéristiques inhérentes qui peuvent potentiellement constituer un obstacle aux processus socioreprésentationnels, comme par exemple se traduire par « risque zéro » aux yeux du grand public.

Objectif

Sur la base de ces considérations, nous avons conduit une étude sur la représentation sociale des séismes dans le sud de la France, dans le but de mieux comprendre si les risques faibles à modérés peuvent être objets de représentation sociale.

Méthode

Après avoir exploré des données disponibles dans la région en lien avec les conditions d’émergence d’une représentation sociale, nous avons analysé la structure de la représentation sociale des tremblements de terre dans le sud de la France auprès d’habitants de zones sismiques (n = 94), et cela à l’aide de trois méthodes développées dans le cadre de l’approche structurale : l’analyse prototypique, l’analyse de similitude et le test d’indépendance au contexte.

Résultats

Nous avons identifié une représentation essentiellement descriptive, sans aucune orientation pratique, ce qui nous mène à questionner les représentations sociales en relation avec les représentations collectives.

Conclusion

Nous proposons une distinction plus claire entre ces deux concepts, en essayant de les situer dans le modèle de l’architecture de la pensée sociale.

Introduction

Certain areas of Metropolitan France are exposed to earthquake risk, not least of which is the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA) region. In 1909, for example, a 6.21 magnitude earthquake hit the small town of Lambesc, killing nearly 50 people, injuring hundreds more and leaving many homeless. Several villages were partially or completely destroyed, making it one of the most destructive earthquakes ever to hit Metropolitan France. Of course, compared to other countries and even some French islands (such as Martinique or Guadeloupe), seismic activity in Metropolitan France is moderate, but preparedness is no less essential in these areas given that earthquakes are unpredictable (Geller, Jackson, Kagan, & Mulargia, 1997). Even though low to moderate risks are less dangerous than high risks, they do bring about various psychosocial factors that can blur risk perception, hinder mitigation and hence increase vulnerability.

For example, low to moderate earthquake risk can translate as “no risk” in the eyes of the general public (McClure, Johnston, Henrich, Milfont, & Becker, 2015), meaning that the terms used objectively by experts are interpreted subjectively and negatively impact preparedness. Indeed, why would individuals prepare for a hazard if they doubt its very existence? Similarly, low impact tremors, far more common than destructive earthquakes in low to moderate seismic areas, can induce a false sense of security and convince at-risk populations that they are not in danger (Becker et al., 2013, Mileti and O’Brien, 1993). Moreover, perceptible, damaging earthquakes are rare, implying a lack of practice, which in turn hinders preparation (Beck, André-Povaud, Paule-Annick, Chardonnel, & Lutoff, 2012).

In light of these observations, we conducted a study to determine if the specificities of low to moderate seismic areas can influence the emergence of a social representation of earthquakes. After exploring available data on the perception of earthquakes in Southern France, particularly in relation to the indicators of a social representation of earthquakes, we conducted a structural study on the social representation of earthquakes in the PACA region.

Section snippets

Theory

In general, understanding and favouring hazard preparation necessarily implies exploring how the hazard in question is perceived (Slovic, 1987). Indeed, risk perception has been linked to preparation in several studies on numerous risks (e.g. McClure et al., 1999, Becker et al., 2013, Palm and Carroll, 1998 on earthquake risk; Bourque et al., 2012 on terrorism; Stein, Buzcu-Guven, Dueñas-Osorio, Subramanian, & Kahle, 2013 on hurricanes). Thus, beyond understanding how laypeople think about

Method

For this study, conducted in 2014 in the PACA region, we adopted the structural approach to social representations (Abric, 1993, Abric, 2001). Within this approach, a social representation is defined as an “organised set of information, opinions, attitudes and beliefs about a given object” (Abric, 2003, p. 59). Through his Central Core Theory, Abric, 1993, Abric, 2001 accounts for a representation's structure by defining two types of representational elements: central elements (that form the

Prototypical analysis

Before performing prototypical analysis on verbal associations, Flament and Rouquette (2003) recommend simultaneously considering diversity and rarity indexes as exploratory indicators of the existence of a structured social representation. The diversity index is obtained by dividing the number of different associations by the total number of associations. The rarity index is the percentage of hapaxes in the overall corpus (i.e., associations that only appear once). In our case, the diversity

Discussion

Our main aim was to determine if a social representation of earthquakes can emerge in regions where earthquake risk perception is low. We first considered data available on earthquake risk perception in the PACA region (Marchand et al., 2011, Lopez et al., 2015) in relation to criteria defined as conditioning the emergence of a social representation (Moliner, 1993, Flament and Rouquette, 2003). This led to ambivalent conclusions as some factors supported the existence of a social representation

Conclusion

Risk research through the scope of SRT is becoming more and more popular among researchers (Weiss et al., 2011). Recently, numerous studies on a diversity of risk-related topics have relied heavily on SRT to explore social thinking about risks (Baggio and Colliard, 2007, Baggio and Rouquette, 2006, Breakwell, 2001, Ernst-Vintila, 2009, Gruev-Vintila and Rouquette, 2007). To our knowledge, very few, if any of these studies has sought to verify beforehand that SRT is truly the most pertinent

Disclosure of interest

The authors declare that they have no competing interest.

Acknowledgements

This research was funded by a doctoral grant from the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region (France) from 2011 to 2014.

The authors sincerely thank Elsa Causse and Serge Caparos (CHROME Lab, E.A. 7352, Nîmes University, France) for their feedback on the initial draft of this paper, and Grégory Lo Monaco (Laboratory of Social Psychology, E.A. 849, Aix-Marseille University, France) for his contribution to the theory.

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