Multi-criteria sustainability analysis of thermal power plant Kolubara-A Unit 2
Introduction
The concept of sustainable development became a leading principle in economic and environmental policy in social organizations starting from the international and the state level to the local level. Sustainability or sustainable development appears as an essential prerequisite and as the end aim of efficient organization of numerous human activities on the Earth. Today, there is wide consensus that the concept of sustainable development brings the hope of renaissance of our planet, but also that the next ten years are critical for the implementation of this concept [1]. The current economic crisis influenced people to feel that it is necessary to react to a number of unsustainable trends in production, consumption, social relations and habits. The foundation of sustainable development consists of three components: economy, society and environment. The EU energy system shows a form of unsustainable development that is characterized by increasing use of imported fossil fuels, and increasing energy consumption and CO2 emissions. In order to preserve the equilibrium of ecosystems and to encourage economic development, mitigation and changes of these negative developments that effect the sustainability of the energy system becomes a real challenge [2]. The accomplishment of the EU sustainable development policy is based on two documents: the Lisbon Strategy, which adopted an ambitious economic plan and social reforms, and the Gothenburg strategy, which defines sustainable development as the main direction of the development process, which has to ensure the prosperity and improvement of living conditions for present and future generations [3], [4].
Hitherto, the research completed with respect to sustainable development of energy systems include reducing greenhouse gas emissions and emissions of polluting gases, improving energy efficiency, increasing the use of renewable energy, and increasing the reliability of energy supply and improving the quality of people's life. Research projects should have a multidisciplinary approach that includes the social-economic impact of future decisions and the impact on markets and customers to the introduction of energy technologies [2], [5], [6]. Solutions must take into account all aspects of sustainable development [7]. There have been a number of studies on sustainability assessment of electricity generation options. Edgar Santoyo-Castelazo and Adisa Azapagic [8] described a new methodological framework and decision-support for a sustainability assessment of the energy system in Mexico, considering the country's key energy drivers and climate change until 2050. The framework comprised scenario analysis by Multiple-criteria decision making (MCDM), which is used to identify the ‘most sustainable’ energy options. Paper [9] also provides a tool for the decision-makers to evaluate ten power plants using the Preference Ranking Organization Method of Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE II), which outranked the multi-criteria method. Twelve criteria, infinite customized probability assessed the weight scenarios and probability assessment of weighting factors, were introduced. Decision support systems do not provide a definite solution for every case. However, they provide estimations to be used by the decision makers. Renewable energy types of power plant outperform by far fossil fuels and nuclear power plants with regards to their impact on the living standard. A case study in Vietnam showed sustainability assessment of solar and wind power plants by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) [10]. The study [11] considered and built a MCDM framework for the selection decision of site for offshore wind farms by the outranking method The Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE III). Insightful information was proposed for managers to analyze and select the optimal site for offshore wind farms, which is a critical step towards a successful wind project. This process concerned conflicting criteria involving offshore wind resources, the environment, sea area planning, power grid access lines, economy, society, etc. A study of Begic and Naim Afgan [12] presented results of a multi-criteria assessment of the options of the selected energy power system of the Public Enterprise of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Resource, environmental, social and economic indicators were defined. Applying the ASPID method provided a chance to investigate the effects of different constraints among the indicators on the final rating of the options.
The Electric Power Industry of Serbia (EPS) is the biggest enterprise in the Republic of Serbia. The installed power capable of producing electric energy is 8359 MW. 34,509 GWh was produced in the thermal power plants run by EPS in 2014. The Company TPP NT is the largest producer of electric energy in South–East Europe and it is an integral part of the EPS. It has fourteen units of installed power of 3288 MW and produces more than 50% of the total Serbian production per year [13].
This paper illustrates a multi-criteria method for estimating the quality of the considered TPP “Kolubara”-A Unit No. 2. When the different dimensions of the introduced sustainable development are taken into consideration, the index of sustainability was determined using the ASPID multi-criteria method, which aids policy makers, investors and analysts in the decision making process. A ranking of the options is given and the selection the ‘most appropriate’ technology was performed in accordance with a set of evaluation criteria.
Section snippets
Options for the analysis of the sustainability of Unit 2 of TPP “Kolubara”-A
TPP “Kolubara”-A is the oldest active plant within the EPS. Within this thermo-energetic facility are five units with a total installed power of 270 MW. The EPS management's plan is to shut down certain blocks due to their age and low energy efficiency. Among these units is A2 TPP “Kolubara” power 32 MW. Shutting down this unit would cause a fall in production of electric energy and loss of jobs. To extend the life-time of this unit by 20 years, seven options of its possible status have been
Indicators of sustainability of Unit 2 of TPP “Kolubara”-A
The issues of the development and sustainability have been catching the attention of mankind since dawn of time but only from the second half of the twentieth century have they become more important due to the growth of the population and the fast rise in the economy. The world economy doubles every twenty years, and the world population doubles every 40–50 years. Unlike the economy and population, the earth's resources used by mankind cannot grow [26]. For these data to be used for an
Multi-criteria assessment of the chosen sustainability options using the ASPID method
Applying ASPID (Analysis and Synthesis of Parameters under Information Deficiency) methods, the options, which were considered from the aspect of sustainability, were ranked by multi-criteria analyzes.
In this process, priorities are defined by the decision-maker in order that their interests and needs are met by weight coefficients that represent a share in the final result [30].
This method is used to evaluate options in situations when there are incomplete, non-countable or interval
Conclusions
As any other complex system, the energy system is defined by limits that include its function, technology, ownership and capacity. In accordance with Europe and World trends, EPS needs to develop and apply a methodology of sustainable development. Making business decision and making decision in general are among the most important and most delicate human activities. Most models designed for making decisions that can be found in the literature are based on one criterion, which becomes
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to express their appreciation for the efforts of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia in supporting and promoting this work through scientific projects referenced III42010 and TR33050.
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