Power outages and economic growth in Africa
Highlights
► We estimate the total effect of power outages on economic growth in Africa. ► We find a substantial impact. ► Solving Africa's power crisis is important.
Introduction
Since the mid-1990s Sub-Saharan Africa has, for the first time in three decades, started growing at about the same rate as the rest of the world (World Bank, 2008). There is even econometric evidence that finds that a structural break in the rate of African GDP per capita growth occurred in 1995 (Arbache and Page, 2009). Average growth in per capita GDP, from 1995 until the outbreak of the crisis, was about 3% per year (Penn World Tables, 7.0). Yet the observed variation in growth performance is equally astonishing; across Sub-Saharan Africa the standard deviation in growth is about 5%. What accounts for this variation?
Power problems could be a culprit, as it is widely acknowledged that Sub-Saharan Africa is in the midst of a power crisis (Eberhard et al., 2008, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, 2007).2 Outages are not just frequent and long but also erratic. According to the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys, pertaining to the years 2006–2010, the average number of power outages during a typical month is 10.5, while the average length of an outage is 6.6 h. Unsurprisingly, more than 50% of African businesses surveyed cite inadequate power supply as a major business constraint.3 Overall, there is no doubt that a deficient power infrastructure dampens economic growth (Eberhard et al., 2008; International Monetary Fund, 2008, Chapter IV; Jones, 2011). But how large is the effect? This paper provides an estimate.
Our paper is related to a large literature investigating the importance of infrastructure for growth and development. In a recent contribution, Dinkelman (2011) estimates the impact of household electrification on employment growth in rural communities by analyzing rural electrification roll-out in post-apartheid South Africa. While Dinkelman contributes to what we know about the microeconomic effects of the quantity of physical infrastructure in developing countries, we focus on the macroeconomic effects of the quality of physical infrastructure.4 The 1994 version of the World Development Report, which was devoted to “Infrastructure for Development”, also made the distinction between the quantity and the quality of infrastructure services. The tradition in the macroeconomics literature has been to estimate quantity effects of public infrastructure on total factor productivity using time-series data, with Aschauer (1989) being a classic reference. The Jimenez (1995) and World Bank (2008) provide overviews relevant for developing countries. This paper departs from the macroeconomic tradition in three ways. First we focus exclusively on the quality of infrastructure. Secondly, we estimate the total effect of infrastructure as opposed to a partial effect. Thirdly, using IV estimation and adjusted data, we pay more attention to the intricacies of obtaining identification.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. The next section discusses the empirical specification, identification and data. Section 3 presents and discusses the main results, while Section 4 concludes.
Section snippets
Specification
Consider the following parsimonious regression model:where g is the average annual growth rate of real income per capita over the period 1995–2007; the pre-crisis period in which Sub-Saharan Africa evidently witnessed something of a growth revival. Interest centers on retrieving a consistent estimate of α1, i.e., the impact of power outages on economic growth.
In order to appreciate this parsimonious specification, note that power supply is a general-purpose technology,
Results
Table 1 reports regression output from estimation of Eq. (1). Column 1 reports OLS estimates, which are expected to be biased. The OLS estimate implies that a one log point change in the number of outages during a typical month is associated with on average 0.4 percentage points lower growth in GDP per capita. The outlier robust LAD (median) estimator provides a roughly similar estimate, cf. column 2. Turning to the IV estimate in column 3, where outages are instrumented by lightning density,
Conclusion
In this paper we ask by how much power outages have affected Africa's recent growth experience. We believe our estimates show that the economic impact is likely to have been substantial.
One way to appreciate the economic significance of the results is to view them through the lens of a neoclassical growth model (e.g., Solow, 1956). In the context of the Solow model, where the long-run growth rate is exogenously given, changes in OUTRAGES will have long-run levels effects. How big is the implied
Acknowledgments
We thank Nikolaj Malchow-Møller, Peter Sandholt Jensen and two referees for useful comments.
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