Elsevier

Ecological Economics

Volume 155, January 2019, Pages 88-104
Ecological Economics

Analysis
Pathways to a Resource-Efficient and Low-Carbon Europe

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.07.014Get rights and content

Abstract

Various environmental footprint concepts have already been developed and applied in sustainability research. However, these analyses tend to remain restricted to historical observation samples. At least in comparison with related research activities in other environmental policy domains (like, e.g., climate policy), it seems that applications of integrated assessment tools represent rather seldom exceptions within the resource policy domain.

Our paper is, therefore, intended to strengthen the related evidence base. We present recent projections from the dynamic Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) simulation model GINFORS (Global Inter-Industry Forecasting System), which provide an outlook on global development trends until the year 2050. Our detailed material footprint and climate policy assessment indicates that a global agreement on a policy mix will allow a clear turnaround towards climate protection and a sustainable use of natural resources without deteriorating economic performance. If the EU decides unilaterally to lead the way, then this turnaround could also be achieved for the EU while the EU would also benefit economically from this pioneering role. A third pathway towards a resource efficient and low-carbon Europe quantifies the environmental and economic impacts of a strong transitional change induced by European citizens' commitments to far-reaching sufficiency objectives.

Introduction

Looking at twentieth century development patterns, economic historians have compiled broad scientific evidence of unprecedented growth in global per capita production activities in this period (see, e.g., Bolt and van Zanden, 2014, Maddison, 2001, De Long, 1998). Following Krausmann et al. (2009) and UNEP (2017), the quadruplication of global population levels over the twentieth century was accompanied by a 19–24 fold increase of global GDP. The implied rise of average global per capita GDP by a factor of about five to six was, however, unequally distributed across the world's regions. Referring to the upper left panel of Fig. 1, we can assert that traditional industrialised regions notably experienced lasting increases in per capita GDP within the last few decades. Several historical analyses have already documented that the metabolic profiles of such highly industrialised economies differ tremendously from those of developing economies (see, e.g., Schaffartzik et al., 2014a, Krausmann et al., 2008, Schandl and Schulz, 2002).

In the upper right panel of Fig. 1 the globally used resource extractions of the 1980–2013 period have been decomposed to material categories. With an average percentage increase of about 1.5% p.a., global biomass extractions seem to feature dampened growth dynamics within this observation sample. Yet, it is interesting to note that these most recent average growth rates equal the historical peak rates reported for this material category by Krausmann et al. (2009) for the post World War II period. Thus, compared to their individual growth histories, the extraction activities of other material categories have been rather slow-growing in the 1980s and 1990s but they exhibit some striking alterations with the beginning of the new millennium. The global use of fossil energy carriers grew by only about 1.1% p.a., ore extractions increased by about 2.5% p.a. and the extraction of non-metallic minerals grew by 2.7% p.a. in the first decades of the new century. For the years 2000 to 2013, these average yearly growth rates increased significantly by up to 2.9% (fossil fuels), 4.4% (ores) and 5.5% (non-metallic minerals).

The graph in the lower right panel of Fig. 1 plots time series of global material productivity (defined as the ratio of global GDP to global extractions used) per material category. Overall, global material productivity remained almost constant between 1980 and 2013 as increases until the year 2001 have been virtually offset by a subsequent decline (yellow line). Whereas biomass featured a persistent increase in global resource productivity since 1980, all of the other material categories feature stagnating (fossil energy carriers) or even declining productivity trends over the most recent past.

According to UNEP (2017), recent declines in global material productivity can be attributed to multinational outsourcing trends favouring production shifts from world regions with high material productivity to regions with lower material productivity. Between 1980 and the early 1990s, the average share of imported goods and service in global GDP rose only gradually from 15% to 17%. The surging globalisation trends of the following decade boosted this share to a level of 29% in 2008. After a significant decline following the global year 2009 recession, this level seems to have been re-established and maintained by the global economy until today.

From an upstream perspective, these salient globalisation trends tended to decouple national production activities from domestic resource extractions. Globally evolving supply chains advanced a spatial separation of resource extractions (and induced environmental pressures) from further processing activities, as well as a spatial separation of production activities from final demand across countries.1 Therefore, the current raw material consumption levels of individual nations or regions cannot be reliably assessed by a sole inspection of domestic extraction figures.

Such assessments rather demand for applications of so-called “environmental footprint” concepts. Various footprint concepts have been developed and applied in sustainability research during the past two decades (see, e.g., Hoekstra and Wiedmann, 2014 for a literature review). Generally they might be understood as accounting routines which are intended to accumulate all direct and indirect environmental pressures which emerge from the global supply chains of regional consumption activities.

Methodologically, these concepts are usually based on life cycle assessment techniques or Environmentally Extended Input–Output (EEIO) frameworks (or hybrid combinations of both methodologies). Considering global material footprint analyses, it seems that applications of EEIO techniques to Multi Region Input–Output (MRIO) databases are widely recognised as the most advanced approaches for consumption-based analyses of global material flows. See, for example, Ivanova et al. (2016), Giljum et al. (2015), Wiedmann et al. (2015), Bruckner et al. (2012) or Wiebe et al. (2012) for relevant references in this regard.2 These historical analyses have provided ample proof of developed countries offshoring the extraction activities induced by their material needs to emerging economies via international trade.

Furthermore, pronounced inequalities in regional material consumption patterns have been documented. See, for example, Bruckner et al. (2012), who (i.a.) found that per capita material footprint levels of OECD members differ from respective figures of non-OECD Member States (roughly) by a factor of about four.3 These contemporary inequalities imply that a catching up of emerging economies to per capita raw material consumption levels of traditional Western industrialised nations would, ceteris paribus, drive global extraction activities to hardly conceivable levels. Simple rule of thumb calculus indicates that globally used extractions might level at around 180 billion tonnes in the year 2050 in such a scenario (Dittrich et al., 2012).4 This boost in global extraction activities will inevitably increase social as well as environmental pressures (Bringezu, 2015). Given that diverse planetary boundaries for resource use and emissions might already have been crossed (Steffen et al., 2015, Rockström et al., 2009),5 policy makers have thus identified the decoupling of affluence levels from resource consumption and environmental impacts as one of the key challenges of the twenty-first century in order to promote social equity by a fair sharing of resources among countries (see, e.g., UNEP, 2017, UNEP, 2014, UNEP, 2011a, European Commission, 2011).

Accordingly, we assert increasing necessities for comprehensive assessments of the prospects of different policy measures triggering economy-wide improvements in resource efficiency as well as the implied socio-economic effects of alternative transformation scenarios evolving from the application of these policy measures. However, until now, researchers do not seem to have acted on these necessities by extensively applying dynamic simulation models mapping the overall economic as well as environmental consequences of future decoupling scenarios in a systemic way. As a matter of fact, all of the previously mentioned applications of MRIO frameworks have remained limited to historical observation periods. Thus, they did neither provide guidance about the potential pathways towards increased resource efficiency nor were they intended to provide a dynamic mapping of the complex interdependencies and dynamic feedbacks between physical metabolic systems and macroeconomic developments. Apparently, integrated dynamic assessment frameworks are needed to fulfil this task. Referring to Hoekstra and Wiedmann (2014) we thus confirm that (at least with regards to the material consumption of national economies) “work remains to be done also in embedding EFA [environmental footprint assessment] in dynamic, integrated assessment models to better understand how complex processes of global change ultimately affect the natural environment and human development” (Hoekstra and Wiedmann, 2014, 1117).

Our paper is intended to advance this research assignment by presenting key scenario insights from the global simulation model GINFORS. We present some selected results from three alternative transformation pathways, which have been parametrised following the narrative of a “vision for a resource efficient Europe” (O'Brien et al., 2014). Our findings indicate (i.a.) that joint efforts of European Union Member States could suffice to achieve an absolute decoupling of the Member States' material footprint from economic growth, even if other world regions maintained traditional development patterns. However, strong European commitments in favour of an implementation of a comprehensive policy mix represent a basic requisite for this outcome.

The presentation of our results is structured as follows: Section 2 introduces our modelling framework, comments on distinguished methodological features with regards to the most recent related simulation studies and it provides a self-contained overview of the parametrised scenarios. Section 3 summarises our key results and completes these findings by conducting a more detailed discussion of the main underlying causalities. Section 4 concludes this paper.

Section snippets

GINFORS

The impacts of environmental policy issues can be assessed with various modelling tools. However, given that the impressive stock of generally available models evolved from distinguished research communities targeting different research questions,6 any model prioritises selected thematic issues and features discrete individual advantages in doing so. This subsection provides a short

Results and Discussion

Our discussion of the results begins with key insights from the Business As Usual scenario (Section 3.1) and proceeds with an analysis of key impacts of the three parametrised transition scenarios (Section 3.2). Apart from aggregated findings concerning macroeconomic developments, CO2 emissions and resource extractions, the impacts on sectoral value added and employment are also presented. (See Table 2.)

We would like to note that all of the results presented within this paper have been

Conclusions and Outlook on Further Research

The scenario projections presented in this paper rest on an established multi-regional dynamic simulation framework that features a systemic account for international socio-economic rebound effects induced by regional or global economy-wide transformative actions. See, for example, Giljum et al. (2008) or Lutz and Meyer (2009) for previous model applications in this tradition.

Miscellaneous global environmental challenges might be addressed. In this regard, our analysis merges insights which

Acknowledgements

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement n° 308371.

References (57)

  • H. Schandl et al.

    Decoupling global environmental pressure and economic growth: scenarios for energy use, materials use and carbon emissions

    J. Clean. Prod.

    (2016)
  • S. Sorrell et al.

    The rebound effect: microeconomic definitions, limitations and extensions

    Ecol. Econ.

    (2008)
  • S. Sorrell et al.

    Empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect: a review

    Energ Policy

    (2009)
  • T. Wiedmann et al.

    Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities—part 2: review of input–output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade

    Ecol. Econ.

    (2007)
  • T. Beringer et al.

    Bioenergy production potential of global biomass plantations under environmental and agricultural constraints

    GCB Bioenergy

    (2011)
  • C. Böhringer et al.

    The Circular Economy: An Economic Impact Assessment. Report to SUN-IZA

  • J. Bolt et al.

    The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts

    Econ. Hist. Rev.

    (2014)
  • S. Bringezu

    Possible target corridor for sustainable use of global material resources

    Resources

    (2015)
  • T. Bulavskaya et al.

    EXIOMOD 2.0: EXtended Input-Output MODel. A full description and applications

  • CE and BioIS

    Study on modelling of the economic and environmental impacts of raw material consumption. Brussels: European Commission technical report 2014–2478

  • J.B. De Long

    Estimates of world GDP, one million B.C.–present

  • E. Dietzenbacher et al.

    The construction of world input-output tables in the WIOD project

    Econ. Syst. Res.

    (2013)
  • M. Dittrich et al.

    Green Economies Around the World? Implications of Resource use for Development and the Environment

    (2012)
  • European Commission

    A roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050

  • T. Fishman et al.

    Stochastic analysis and forecasts of the patterns of speed, acceleration, and levels of material stock accumulation in society

    Environ. Sci. Technol.

    (2016)
  • S. Giljum et al.

    Material footprint assessment in a global input-output framework

    J. Ind. Ecol.

    (2015)
  • M. Grassini

    Rowing along the computable general equilibrium modelling mainstream

    Stud. Note Econ.

    (2007)
  • A. Hoekstra et al.

    Humanity's unsustainable environmental footprint

    Science

    (2014)
  • Cited by (0)

    This paper derives from a project that received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308371.

    View full text