Impact of autonomous vehicles on household relocation: An agent-based simulation

Highlights

• Simulation of autonomous vehicles in an integrated land use/transport model

• Accounts for parking needs of vehicles for mode choice and household relocation

• Value of time is modified to accept traveling longer distances in autonomous vehicles

• A simulation model provides year-by-year impacts on household relocation

Abstract

The agent-based land use/transport model SILO/MITO/MATSim is adapted to simulate the impact of AVs on household relocation. The revised model accounts for the fact that households who own conventional cars are sensitive to parking availability at their dwelling. As AVs could park themselves anywhere, this sensitivity to parking is reduced for households who own AVs. Distance to work, which serves as a hard constraint for household relocation with conventional cars, becomes less critical for households who use an AV to commute as they may perform other activities while commuting. The induced demand of travel by AV is represented and leads to increased congestion.

Several scenarios were designed to analyze the effects of reduced value of time for AV travel, parking restrictions and increase of congestion. The simulation shows that AVs will compete with transit and reduce transit ridership by three quarters. The average commute distance is expected to double, and the vehicle-kilometers traveled will increase by one third. The impact of AVs on the distribution of population, however, is marginal. The urban sprawl caused by less burdensome commuting is largely compensated by the increased attractiveness of core cities in the absence of parking issues for AVs.