Elsevier

Atmospheric Research

Volume 224, 1 August 2019, Pages 52-64
Atmospheric Research

Evidence of climate variability from rainfall and temperature fluctuations in semi-arid region of the tropics

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.023Get rights and content

Highlights

  • Detecting trends and variations in rainfall and temperature series is crucial in the determination of the presence of climate variability

  • Climate variability is manifested in rainfall and temperature irregularities and in the occurrence of extreme weather events.

  • The noticeable increase in the rainfall in the area create hope for the socio-economic activities e.g. agriculture and water supply.

  • Increased in the rainfall and temperature series with the occasional extreme observations are corroborative evidences of increased climate variability.

Abstract

The pattern of rainfall and temperature behaviour in the Hadejia River Basin (HRB) has been assessed. The behaviour of rainfall and temperature have been used as proxies in detecting the presence of climate variability. Historical rainfall and temperature monthly data spanning thirty-six years (1980–2015) obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) was used in this study. ANOVA and Mann-Kendall trend test was used for the data analysis. The ANOVA results showed significant variation in rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature between the stations. The Mann-Kendall trend test result shows an increasing trend in both rainfall and temperature in annual statistics, though statistically insignificant. However, the monthly trends result showed mixed results of both significant and insignificant as well as increasing and decreasing trends. The mean, standard deviation and the coefficient of variation were spatially interpolated using inverse distance weightage technique for easy comprehension. Even though the annual increasing trends result was statistically insignificant except for two out of the ten stations, it is still crucial for planning water-related activities and programs considering the sensitivity and fragility of the region to minor climatic variations.

Introduction

The impact of climate change and variability have been studied and reported worldwide, (Hoque et al., 2016; Li et al., 2016; Wen et al., 2017), and more studies are currently ongoing. The changes and variability in climate occur at all spatial scales (Elsanabary and Gan, 2015). However, in recent time interest have shifted to regional and basin scales studies, which provides more details and crucial information for the management and planning of local economic and societal activities (Elsanabary and Gan, 2015), and for the prudent environmental protection and management Rainfall and temperature dynamics have been used as proxies to investigate climate change and variability “e.g.” rainfall was used by; (Mohammed et al., 2015; Huang et al., 2018; Karki et al., 2018); temperature by (Iqbal et al., 2016; Salman et al., 2018) and both were used by (Kusangaya et al., 2014; Nayak et al., 2018).

Besides rainfall and temperature fluctuation, increasing occurrence of extreme events such as droughts, floods and heavy storms in Africa has been cited as important characteristics of climate variability (Ogungbenro and Morakinyo, 2014; Suleiman and Ifabiyi, 2015). These extreme weather events are associated with the increased frequency of to anthropogenically motivated rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and land use changes (Reason, 2007) and their consequences are the intensifications of global warming and hydrological cycle (Huntington, 2006).

The manifestation of that was in the increased spatiotemporal variability of the basic climate parameters (rainfall and temperature) which has been reported to increase in West particularly with regard to rainfall anomalies (De Longueville et al., 2016). However, many studies have demonstrated rainfall recovery in recent years (De Longueville et al., 2016; Awotwi et al., 2015; Sanogo et al., 2015). The recovery is echoed both in more rainy days linked with a long wet spell.

duration and more extreme rainfall events. Moreover, in the entire Sahelian region, the largest rainfall recovery is displayed in the August–October period. The trend in the rainfall behaviour also shows larger inter-annual rainfall variability especially along the Coast of Guinea (e.g. in Nigeria and Ghana) (Sanogo et al., 2015).

In the semi-arid region of Nigeria, increased fluctuation in rainfall and temperature possesses the potential of worsening the already existing environmental degradation and water scarcity (Ogungbenro and Morakinyo, 2014; Balogun et al., 2016), which have been projected to affects food security, human health, environmental flow, economic development (Balogun et al., 2016) and communal conflicts (Roma, 2008; Audu, 2013; Umar and Ankidawa, 2016).

The pattern of rainfall behaviour and the increased inter-annual rainfall variability in the area has long been associated with climate change and variability (Adakayi, 2012; Mohammed et al., 2015). In this region, freshwater availability is the major future challenge to sustainable development (Global International Water Assessment (GIWA), 2004; Sobowale et al., 2010; Umar and Ankidawa, 2016), and is largely attributed to climate change and variability (Olagunju, 2015; Sawa et al., 2015).

Thus, the current study is aimed at assessing the spatiotemporal dynamics and presence of a trend in rainfall and temperature time series as the basis of establishing the presence of climate change and variability in Hadejia River Basin (HRB).

Section snippets

Study area

Hadejia River Basin is sub-catchment of the Lake Chad Basin. It has a total spatial extent of about 24,680 km2 (Adakayi, 2012). The area is climatically control by two air masses, the South West (SW) and the North East (NE) trade winds. The SW trade winds bring moisture all over the North from the Atlantic Ocean with high temperature (summer) between the months of May to September. The NE trade wind, on the other hand, comes along with dry cold winds from the Sahara Desert between Octobers to

Descriptive statistics

The descriptive summaries revealed that both rainfall mean and maximum values were higher at Doguwa station and were both lowest at Hadejia station (Fig. 3a). However, the highest and lowest minimum rainfall was recorded at Challawa and Hadejia stations respectively (Fig. 3a). Meanwhile, highest rainfall range and SD were at Doguwa station and the lowest at Hadejia station (Fig. 3a and 4b), but the rainfall CV was higher at Tiga station and lower at Kano and Challawa stations (Fig. 4c). The

Discussion

The spatiotemporal dynamics and presence of a trend in rainfall and temperature time series were assessed aiming at establishing the presence of climate change and variability in Hadejia River Basin (HRB), northern Nigeria.

The overall findings were that rainfall and temperature varied significantly over space and time. However, the spatial variation in temperature is more visible than that of rainfall. On the other hand, temporal changes are more discernible in rainfall series than in the

Conclusion

Rainfall and temperature series has been used to assess the presence and increased climate variability in the Hadejia river basin. Generally, the annual trends of both rainfall and temperatures in all the studied stations showed an increasing trend with a statistically significant trend in rainfall series at two (Doguwa and Rano) out of ten stations considered. These two stations were located at the high relief areas in the southern part of the basin. However, the monthly trends produced mixed

Conflict of interest

None.

Acknowledgement

Profound gratitude to the management of Federal University Dutse (FUD), Dutse Nigeria and the Hadejia-Jama'are River Basin Development Authority (HJRBDA) for their unquantifiable support.

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