Energy and CO2 implications of decarbonization strategies for China beyond efficiency: Modeling 2050 maximum renewable resources and accelerated electrification impacts
Introduction
In support of the Paris Agreement, China has committed to peak its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2030 or earlier and to reduce its CO2 per unit of GDP intensity by 60–65% from 2005 levels by 2030 [1]. China’s 13th Five-Year Plan for 2016 to 2020 includes an energy intensity per unit of GDP reduction target of 15% and CO2 intensity reduction target of 18% by 2020 [2]. These recent targets follow years of government-driven efforts to improve energy efficiency across all demand-side sectors while attempting to decarbonize the power sector. While China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP declined by 37% from 2005 to 2016, total primary energy consumption increased by 167% over the same time period and coal consumption is still 62% of primary energy consumption in 2016 [3]. Although coal consumption’s share of total energy consumption has declined significantly over the last decade, other significant near-terms actions beyond energy efficiency are needed to help China achieve its 2020 and 2030 targets and contribute to global efforts to limit the average global temperature increase to 2 °C or lower.
Two near-term strategies that are currently being pursued in China beyond energy efficiency include promoting the adoption of renewable sources, particularly in the power sector, and electrification. Renewable installed capacity targets for 2020 were laid out in the Strategic Energy Action Plan (2014–2020) and updated under the 13th Five Year Plan for 2016 to 2020 along with target of 15% non-fossil share of primary energy consumption [4], [5]. In January 2017, the National Energy Administration announced that China is planning to spend at least 2.5 trillion yuan on renewable energy in the 13th Five Year Plan period [6]. Significant policy focus has also been placed on power sector reform, in order to increase renewable energy utilization by addressing overcapacity and reducing curtailment [7]. China is also pursuing greater electrification through sectoral policies including increasing the use of electric vehicles in the transport sector, electrification of rural households and industrial processes, and promoting the adoption of more efficient, end-use equipment such as heat pump technology in Chinese buildings. The indirect push for electrification coincides with the emergence of the concept of environmentally beneficial electrification in the United States (U.S.) and Europe, or “electrification of energy end uses that have been powered by fossil fuels in order reduce greenhouse gas emissions” [8], [9], [10]. While U.S. electricity and energy consumption have remained fairly stagnant since 2013, favorable conditions for a future shift towards environmentally beneficial electrification have emerged, including: recent public policy goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, declines in power sector’s CO2 intensity due to technological advancements, fuel switching, cost reductions for renewable power, increased efficiency of electric end-use equipment, and growing need for flexible loads to help integrate intermittent renewable energy into the electric grid [9]. For China, environmentally beneficial electrification will likely gain more traction in the near future as China has already adopted policy goals aimed at reducing CO2 emissions and decarbonizing its power sector.
This paper focuses on the feasibility for further lowering China’s future CO2 emissions by accelerating electrification in parallel with power sector decarbonization and maximizing demand-side utilization of renewable technologies. We use a bottom-up national end-use model that integrates energy supply and demand systems and conduct scenario analysis to evaluate even lower CO2 emissions strategies and subsequent pathways for China to go beyond cost-effective efficiency and fuel switching. We developed individual scenarios of low carbon strategies including energy efficiency, fossil fuel switch, demand and supply-side renewables, and accelerated electrification (with maximized technically feasible electrification rates for selected end-uses) to evaluate the potential energy and CO2 impacts of these key strategies. By comparing these alternative technology scenarios against a Reference scenario of existing policies, we are able to assess alternative CO2 pathways if China is able to rapidly decarbonize its power sector while accelerating electrification, and the additional opportunity from maximizing the use of biomass and low temperature renewable heat in industry, and solar heating, cooling and water heating technologies in buildings.
This study contributes to the existing body of energy modeling literature focused on China in several different ways. From a methodological perspective, we use a bottom-up end-use model built using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software that is able to differentiate nuances at the level of end-uses and individual technologies beyond macroeconomic modeling approaches in existing Chinese modeling studies [11], [12], [13], [14], [15]. Our study further contributes to the bottom-up energy modeling field by evaluating newer, multi-sectoral strategies beyond cost-effective efficiency improvements and fuel switching strategies typically considered in the few existing bottom-up China modeling studies [16], and with longer time frame out to 2050 [17], [18], [19]. Compared to other existing LEAP-based 2050 China models [20], [21], our model is distinct in the level of complexity and detail in modeling the building sector [22] and in using physical drivers such as building floorspace and infrastructure needs for projecting heavy industrial production that captures saturation points [23]. Other China modeling studies have evaluated the potential impacts of accelerated electrification, but most focused on transport without consideration for industry or commercial buildings, two dominant and rapidly growing sectors in China’s energy system [12], [24], [25], [26]. Most other studies also do not explicitly model the linkage between electrification and power sector decarbonization [27], or have done so only for other regions [28], [29], [30], [31] or only for selected sectors [24], [32], [33]. Other studies have estimated economy-wide electrification rates through historical extrapolation and regression analysis focused on per capita electricity consumption [34], [35]. But these often result in relatively high forecasts that overlook longer term changes such as saturation effects in equipment stock or autonomous efficiency improvements that are considered in bottom-up projections.
While several earlier studies have considered pathways of high renewable penetration for China [20], [36], [37], and combined pathways of efficiency improvement, fuel switching and electrification [19], [21], we add to these existing outlooks by evaluating and comparing the individual contributions of demand-side utilization of newer renewable technologies to efficiency, fossil fuel switching, and accelerated electrification. More specifically, we considered technologies such as low temperature renewable heat and solar thermal heating and cooling technologies that have only been deployed in some European countries as discussed later in Section 3.3, but not yet considered in most future renewable scenario outlooks for China [33], [38]. By also considering the combined and separate impacts of efficiency, electrification and adoption of non-conventional renewable resources such as renewable heat on China’s total energy-related CO2 emissions through 2050, we fill a key research gap in existing modeling studies of China’s climate change mitigation strategies and pathways. Through a cursory comparison of our scenarios with two recent outlooks for China [19], [21], our scenario results distinctly highlight a possible pathway of lower CO2 emissions and peak in electricity demand before 2050 with the concurrent adoption of efficiency, electrification and non-conventional renewable resources.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Section 2 reviews the LEAP modeling framework, data validation and projection methodology; Section 3 details the specific storylines and key assumptions for our five different scenarios; Section 4 presents the energy and CO2 emissions results by sector with overall CO2 outlook for each scenario; and Section 5 provides an overall discussion of results and policy implications.
Section snippets
Modeling framework
The China 2050 Demand Resources Energy Analysis Model (DREAM) was used to evaluate China’s future energy and CO2 emissions trajectories and the potential impacts beyond cost-effective efficiency. The foundation for the China 2050 DREAM model is an accounting framework of China’s energy and economic structure using the LEAP software platform developed by Stockholm Environment Institute. LEAP is a medium to long-term integrated modelling platform that can be used to track energy consumption,
Scenarios and assumptions
Five main scenarios are developed to evaluate the potential CO2 reductions if China is able to rapidly decarbonize its power sector while accelerating electrification across all sectors and the additional opportunity from maximizing biomass and emerging renewable technologies in industry and building sectors. The scenarios developed are not driven by climate end-point such as the international goals of keeping global temperature increases to 1.5 °C or 2 °C or intended to reflect certain policy
Results
We present our results in two ways: first in terms of the energy impacts of the two key strategies of maximizing supply and demand-side renewable deployment and accelerating electrification, and then by comparing the CO2 results of different scenarios modeled to understand the CO2 implications of different low carbon strategies.
Discussion
Our results show that there are several different strategies for China to achieve its target of peaking its CO2 emissions by 2030 or earlier, and a combination of all strategies including accelerated electrification can help significantly reduce China’s future CO2 emissions by as much as 62% annually by 2050 when compared to a Reference Scenario of no new policies. While China’s CO2 emissions can peak as early as 2025 by only pursuing cost-effective efficiency measures and fuel switching to
Acknowledgments
The work described in this study was funded by Energy Foundation China under Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.
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