Elsevier

Advances in Water Resources

Volume 110, December 2017, Pages 562-578
Advances in Water Resources

A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.08.003Get rights and content

Highlights

  • A methodology to assess risk of water scarcity on irrigated agriculture is proposed.

  • Hazard, exposure and vulnerability are assessed by combining multiple indicators.

  • Different risk levels against climate change projections are estimated in Puglia.

  • Outcomes can be used to promote optimal knowledge-based adaptation strategies.

Abstract

In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, raising frequency, duration and intensity of drought events, mainly driven by climate change dynamics, are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, limiting crop development and yield especially where agriculture largely depends on irrigation. The achievement of an affordable and sustainable equilibrium between available water resources and irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. The present study proposed a state-of-the art conceptual framework and computational methodology to assess the potential water scarcity risk, due to changes in climate trends and variability, on irrigated croplands. The model has been tested over the irrigated agriculture of Puglia Region, a semi-arid territory with the largest agricultural production in Southern Italy. The methodology, based on the Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, has been applied within a scenario-based hazard framework. Regional climate projections, under alternative greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and for two different timeframes, 2021–2050 and 2041–2070 compared to the baseline 1976–2005 period, have been used to drive hydrological simulations of river inflow to the most important reservoirs serving irrigation purposes in Puglia. The novelty of the proposed RRA-based approach does not simply rely on the concept of risk as combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, but rather elaborates detailed (scientific and conceptual) framing and computational description of these factors, to produce risk spatial pattern maps and related statistics distinguishing the most critical areas (risk hot spots).. The application supported the identification of the most affected areas (i.e. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia under RCP8.5 2041–2070 scenario), crops (fruit trees and vineyards), and, finally, the vulnerability pattern of irrigation systems and networks. The implemented assessment singled out future perspectives of water scarcity risk levels for irrigated agriculture by the administrative extent where individual bodies are in charge of the coordination of public and private irrigation activities (i.e. Reclamation Consortia). Based on the outcomes of the proposed methodology, tailored and knowledge-based adaptation strategies and related actions can be developed, to reduce the risk at both agronomic level (i.e. preferring crops with low vulnerability score, as olive groves) and at structural level (i.e. differentiating the water stocks and supplies and reducing losses and inefficiencies).

Introduction

Over the past 60 years increasing water demand, population growth, urban expansion, and intensive agricultural practices in many areas have exacerbated the impact of water scarcity and droughts for irrigation purposes (Qadir and Oster, 2014, Dai, 2010; Mishra and Singh, 2011, Sheffield et al., 2012, Flörke et al., 2011, Wada and Bierkens, 2014). Although approximately only 17–25% of the world's croplands are irrigated, they produce between one third and one half of the food and fiber harvested throughout the globe, respectively (Hillel, 2000) and are expected to spread in the future to meet food security (Fuss et al., 2015, Mishra and Singh, 2011, Mancosu et al., 2015, Wada et al., 2012, Wada and Bierkens, 2014). Generally, the progressive increase of irrigation practices causes concern for the long-term sustainability of water resources at multiple scales, with social, environmental and economic implications for the population, and threats for the regular availability of water for other uses, like domestic, industrial and energy, within an integrated water–energy–food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus perspective (Lionello et al., 2008a, Iglesias et al., 2007, Mancosu et al., 2015, Wada et al., 2013; SEI 2014, Vanham, 2016). Moreover, the increase in frequency, duration and magnitude of droughts with regard to long-term imbalances of water demand and water availability is indisputably due to changes in climatic regimes (EU 21553, 2005, Vicente-Serrano et al., 2014) with different spatial and geographical patterns (IPCC 2013, IPCC 2014a, IPCC 2014b). Although the Europe is somehow considered as having adequate water resources; long term imbalances where water demand exceed available water stocks are no longer uncommon (Gosling and Arnell, 2016, Van Lanen et al., 2013). In the last 20 years Europe experienced more than 80% of its driest winters since the last Century (Hoerling et al., 2012), and between 1976 and 2006 the number of areas and people affected by droughts went up by almost 20%, with damages estimated to more than 100 billion Euro, peaking up to 8.7 billion Euro only due to the 2003 drought (Mishra and Singh, 2011). Currently, few river basins can be considered under water stress all year round. Although during summer months’ water scarcity is markedly pronounced in Southern Europe (Alkama et al., 2013), it is becoming important also in Northern basins (European Commission, 2012, Forzieri et al., 2014). The European Commission and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agree on expecting further deterioration of the water situation in Europe if temperatures keep rising as a result of climate change, where projected (spatial and temporal) trends of drought events (IPCC 2013, Schneider et al., 2013, Spinoni et al., 2015, Vicente-Serrano et al., 2014) are likely to have significant impacts on both agriculture and other water-dependent sectors over the next few decades (IPCC, 2014b). Such a situation can be further enhanced by socio-economic factors (need of larger crop production and technology development) (Schaldach et al., 2012), while by 2030 half of the European river basins are expected to be affected by water scarcity (European Commission, 2012).

In the drought-affected regions of Mediterranean basin (i.e. Spain, Malta, Italy, Greece, Turkey), several studies show that the impacts of climate change on water yields are already happening (García-Ruiz et al., 2011, López-Moreno et al., 2010, Ludwig et al., 2011, Estrela and Pérez-Martin, 2012, Sen et al., 2012; Koutroulis et al., 2013, Preziosi et al., 2013). For example, in the Iberian Peninsula, the demand for water in different watersheds ranges between 55% and 224% of the corresponding water supply and, at the sub-basin scale, the supply is very often negatively correlated to the water demand (Sabater et al., 2009; Boithias et al., 2014). In Puglia Region, hot and dry climate with increasing variability of the rainfall patterns and intensity (heavy rains during the fall/winter period and severe droughts in summer) pose serious problemsto the (competitive) use of water resources (Lionello et al., 2014, Vanino et al., 2015). In fact, the limitation of the available water stocks for the competitive scenario of users from different sectors (industrial, energy, domestic, agricultural) could trigger severe limitation on productivity (Giglio et al., 2010; Lionello et al., 2014) but also worsen water quality.

Currently, many studies have proposed different models that mostly quantify the hazard of water scarcity and drought phenomena caused by climate change (i.e. Barthel et al., 2008, Flörke et al., 2011, García-Ruiz et al., 2011, Falloon and Betts, 2009, Ferrise et al., 2013, Giglio et al., 2010). Despite these efforts, we still remark the need of further (more) integrated studies where the hazard is combined with exposure patterns and vulnerability assessment to provide a complete risk evaluation, at both quantitative and spatial level on a regional scale, in order to support stakeholders in developing adaptation and mitigation (best) practices to limit losses and damages.

The Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) paradigm developed by Landis (2005) provides a quantitative and systematic approach to estimate and compare the impacts of environmental problems that affect large geographic areas (Hunsaker et al., 1990), by considering the presence of multiple habitats, and taking into account multiple stressors impacting multiple endpoints (Landis, 2005). The RRA approach has been successfully tested in a variety of cases across the world, including marine coastal areas, fjords and hydrographic basins’ habitats (Landis and Wiegers, 1997). Recently, RRA has been extensively applied to inform complex decision-making processes related to environmental management and climate change adaptation (Pasini et al., 2012, Ronco et al., 2016). This approach supports the identification and ranking of hotspots and targets at risk over wide areas, in order to drive the development of appropriate strategies and actions for mitigation, prevention and adaptation purposes.

With the long-term perspective of supporting the development of regional adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of a drying climate in already semi-dry areas, the present study proposes a tailored RRA application in Puglia Region in Southern Italy. The case study has been selected in the framework of the ORIENTGATE project (http://www.orientgateproject.org), in order toassess the risk due to water scarcity induced by climate change on the local irrigation compartment and evaluate if (and what) adaptation strategies (and practices) can be useful to address or minimize the likely reduced water availability and agricultural productivity.

After a description of the case study area (Section 2.1) and of the underlying risk conceptual framework (Section 2.2), the paper introduces the core of the study that stands with the conceptual and computational algorithms and indicators to characterize the risk pattern and its application to the case study area (Section 3), producing maps and synthesis information (statistics, graphs etc.) with the potential of guiding the definition of adaptation strategies (Section 4).

Section snippets

Case study area: issues and constraints

The Puglia region, located in the southeast of Italy (between 41°53′N–39°48′N and 14°49′E–18°35′E) comprises an area of 19,345 km2 and has a population of about 4 million people (density of 210 inhabitants/km2) (ISTAT, 2014a). The climate of Puglia Region is purely Mediterranean, with mild wet winters and hot dry summers (the coldest month is January and the warmest is July). Summer season presents semi-desert features where rains may be missing for more than two or three consecutive months.

Methodology

There is a vast literature about the different approaches and theories that shape the concept of risk, where authors proposed different methodologies, theoretical frameworks and specific algorithms to estimate the risk for a wide range of contexts. Here the characterization of the risk pattern is based on the evaluation of its three main components: hazard, exposure and vulnerability (IPCC, 2014b). Moreover, it is worth to notice that the risk of water scarcity (long term water scarcity or

Results and discussion

The RRA methodology described and presented in Section 3 was applied to assess the impact of water scarcity due to climate change on a large irrigated agricultural area in Puglia Region, Italy. Results are presented and discussed in the following paragraphs.

Conclusions

The present study assessed the impact of water scarcity due to climate change on the irrigated agriculture. A state-of-the-art methodology, RRA based, has been developed upon a consolidated conceptual framework shaped by four pillars, namely hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk, where the outcome of the first three affects the latter. Each tier of analysis has been designed to represent the physical characteristics of the natural phenomena (rainfall-runoff driven by climatic change with

Acknowledgements

This study was developed within the ORIENTGATE Project (co-funded by South East Europe Transnational Cooperation Programme and coordinated by the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change Foundation; http://www.orientgateproject.org/). The Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Foundation (CMCC), with technical and advisory support of ORIENTGATE-SEE partners, coordinated data collection, performed climate projections modelling and downscaling, as well as handling relationships with

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    Currently at: Joint Research Centre, EU Commission, Water and Marine Resources, TP121, 21027 Ispra (VA) Italy.

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