Elsevier

Decision Support Systems

Volume 1, Issue 4, December 1985, Pages 333-340
Decision Support Systems

A general purpose computer aid to judgemental forecasting: Rationale and procedures

https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-9236(85)90173-3Get rights and content

Abstract

Here we describe the rationale, procedures and use of a general purpose computer aid to judgemental forecasting. First, we review empirical studies of unaided judgemental forecasting and we identify suboptimalities in such probabilistic judgements. Next we present a description of ‘Forecast’, illustrating how the program's procedures aid judgemental forecasting by enabling the forecaster to produce coherent and consistent probabilities. The program aids three types of forecasting: first, of the time period or date when a specified event may happen, e.g. the value of UK £1.00 falling below US$1.30; second, the possible outcomes of an event when these can be expressed in numerical terms as outcomes on a single continuous scale, e.g. company profits; third, the possible outcomes of an event when these can be expressed as discrete or discontinuous outcomes, e.g. the winner of a horse race.

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