The relation between motor vehicle accident deaths and economic activity

doi:10.1016/0001-4575(84)90014-9

Accident Analysis & Prevention

Volume 16, Issue 3, June 1984, Pages 207-210

https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(84)90014-9 Get rights and content

Abstract

Relations between annual changes in motor vehicle deaths and changes in the index of industrial production were studied for the period 1930–1982. It was found that the relation was present during the entire period, and has changed relatively little since 1950. Changes in vehicle miles of travel do not explain the relation between motor vehicle deaths and economic activity.

References (7)

H.C. Joksch et al.
Estimating the effects of crash phase injury countermeasures II. The fatality trend and its modification by countermeasures
Accid. Anal. Prev.
(1973)
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
Decline in Auto Crash Fatalities Tied to Economy
The Highway Loss Reduction Status Report
(1983)
H.C. Joksch
An Accident Trend Model
Report DOT-HS-801420
(1975)

There are more references available in the full text version of this article.

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Problem: Electronic Stability Control (ESC) is believed to be among the most efficient vehicle safety interventions with reported effects around 50% for fatal single and rollover crashes. However, such estimates have used sample data, which have not controlled for the possibilities of self-selection, behavioral adaptation, increased access to the technology by less safe drivers, and the calculation of effects on very specific categories of crashes. Effects of ESC in the population can therefore be expected to be smaller than is currently believed. Method: National U.S. data for fatal crashes, driving exposure and other control factors, and market penetration of ESC over 1991–2021 were used to calculate whether the trends in fatalities over time in crash rates for singles, rollovers, and fatal crashes in general matched projections from estimates of effectiveness. Results: It was found that downward trends in the relevant crash types were generally present before ESC was introduced, and that the trends thereafter were weaker. Although some trends were consistent with effects of ESC, they were markedly smaller than the projected ones, and could be explained by other factors such as the number of vehicles per capita. At best, the effect for rollovers could be up to two-thirds of previous estimates, no effect was detected for singles, while for all fatal crashes results depended upon the type of analysis performed. These results conflict with conclusions in all published ESC crash sample studies, which have compared vehicles with and without ESC. This discrepancy can be explained by methodological errors in the previous studies using induced exposure methods and self-selected samples. Practical applications: Traffic safety may not be as much improved by technological interventions as believed. Alternative approaches to traffic safety are needed, which do not rely on technology that interferes with driver behavior.
Road safety and road infrastructure expenditure: A bivariate analysis
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A considerable body of earlier literature has analysed the determinants of road safety outcomes at the aggregate level. A sub-set of that literature has sought to assess the effect of road expenditure, both investment and maintenance spending, on road safety. The results have been inconclusive and, in part, counterintuitive. To clarify that relationship, this paper undertakes a bivariate analysis using European panel data. Three main results emerge. First, there is only limited evidence of longer-term relationships (common stochastic trends) among different measures of the variables. Second, causality tests on stationary variables suggest that the direction of causality depends on how the variables are measured. Third, unrestricted Vector Autoregression (VAR) analyses suggest that there is a positive relationship from some measures of road safety outcomes to road infrastructure investment, and that an increase in one real measure of road infrastructure investment reduces fatalities permanently, if with a lag. While not modelling the true and complex data generating processes, these bivariate analyses help address the salient empirical issues emerging from earlier literature, and the results provide a detailed description of the relationship between road safety and infrastructure expenditure.
How did the economic recession (2008–2010) influence traffic fatalities in OECD-countries?
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This paper presents analyses of how the economic recession that started in 2008 has influenced the number of traffic fatalities in OECD countries. Previous studies of the relationship between economic recessions and changes in the number of traffic fatalities are reviewed. Based on these studies, a causal diagram of the relationship between changes of the business cycle and changes in the number of traffic fatalities is proposed. This causal model is tested empirically by means of multivariate analyses and analyses of accident statistics for Great Britain and Sweden. Economic recession, as indicated both by slower growth of, or decline of gross national product, and by increased unemployment is associated with an accelerated decline in the number of traffic fatalities, i.e. a larger decline than the long-term trend that is normal in OECD countries. The principal mechanisms bringing this about are a disproportionate reduction of driving among high-risk drivers, in particular young drivers and a reduction of fatality rate per kilometre of travel, probably attributable to changes in road user behaviour that are only partly observable. The total number of vehicle kilometres of travel did not change very much as a result of the recession. The paper is based on an ITF-report that presents the analyses in greater detail.
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Citation Excerpt :
The authors have shown that the number of accidents and traffic accident victims share a common cycle with the index of industrial production in Spain for the 1975–2005 period. The scientific literature shows also a positive link between economic growth and some traffic safety indicators (Joksch, 1984; Wagenaar, 1984; Garg and Hyder, 2006; García‐ferrer et al., 2007; Yannis et al., 2014). Economic growth is associated with more traffic injuries, while economic recession improves the traffic safety situation.
The aim of this contribution is to estimate the impact of road economic conditions and mobility on traffic accidents for the case of Algeria. Using the cointegration approach and vector error correction model (VECM), we will examine simultaneously short term and long-term impacts between the number of traffic accidents, fuel consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) per capital, over the period 1970–2013. The main results of the estimation show that the number of traffic accidents in Algeria is positively influenced by the GDP per capita in the short and long term. It implies that a higher economic development worsens the road safety situation. However, the new traffic rules adopted in 2009 have an impact on the forecast trend of traffic accidents, meaning efficient public policy could improve the situation. This result calls for a strong political commitment with effective countermeasures for avoiding the further deterioration of road safety record in Algeria.
What affects annual changes in traffic safety? A macroscopic perspective in Virginia
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Citation Excerpt :
Wagenaar (1984) found that an unemployment rate was associated with traffic crashes yet its impact on reduction in traffic crashes was small. Joksch (1984) reported a nearly linear relationship between changes in the industrial production indices and traffic fatalities using national data from 1950 through 1972. Kopits and Cropper (2005) linked per capita income to traffic fatalities.
Virginia saw a 20% reduction in traffic fatalities in 2008, an unprecedented annual reduction since 1950, and safety stakeholders in Virginia were intrigued about what caused such large a reduction and more generally what affects traffic safety from a macroscopic perspective.
This study attempted to find factors associated with such a reduction using historical data of Virginia. Specifically, the study related 18 factors to seven traffic safety measures.
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Annual changes in the CPI and unemployment rate account for about half of the annual changes in total and fatal crash counts, respectively. On average, a 1 point increase in CPI and a 1% increase in the unemployment rate are associated with about 2,500 fewer traffic crashes and about 40 fewer fatal crashes annually in Virginia, respectively.

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The relation between motor vehicle accident deaths and economic activity

Abstract

Accid. Anal. Prev.

Decline in Auto Crash Fatalities Tied to Economy

The Highway Loss Reduction Status Report

An Accident Trend Model

Report DOT-HS-801420