Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Spatial and Temporal Trends in the Yields of Three Major Crops: Wheat, Rice and Maize in India

  • Research
  • Published:
International Journal of Plant Production Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

India is one of the largest landmasses under crop cultivation with staple consumption of food security crops. Post green revolution (since 1967), there has been a steady March towards self-sustainability in food production. Though the general trends speak of an increase in crop yields, the detailed study on decade wise trends and fast approaching state of stagnation in crop yields is largely missing. The present manuscript is the first study examining the crop yield trends of three major food crops—wheat, rice, and maize across Indian states. The four types of regression models were fitted on the annual yield data from all the 29 Indian states over the period 1967–2017. The best-fit statistical models were chosen using the Akaike information criterion. Our results suggest that (1) Wheat yields in 13 Indian states, rice yields in eleven Indian states, and maize yields in six Indian states are now not improving. (2) The yields in ~ 76% of wheat harvested area (~ 18.5 million hectares), ~ 47% of rice harvested area (~ 19.5 million hectares), and ~ 18% of maize harvested area (~ 1.2 million hectares) are not improving for the recent decade. The detailed mapping of current crop yield trends across Indian states is the first step towards achieving a bigger goal of identifying the responsible factors affecting current crop yield trends and then identifying and recommending appropriate mitigation strategies.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aggarwal, P. K. (2008). Global climate change and Indian agriculture: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences,78(11), 0019–5022.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aggarwal, P. K., & Mall, R. K. (2002). Climate change and rice yields in diverse agro-environments of India. II. Effect of uncertainties in scenarios and crop models on impact assessment. Climatic Change,52(3), 331–343.

    Google Scholar 

  • Akaike, H. (1974). A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control,19(6), 716–723.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alexandratos, N. (1999). World food and agriculture: Outlook for the medium and longer term. Proceedings of the National academy of Sciences of the United States of America,96(11), 5908–5914.

    CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Asseng, S., Foster, I., & Turner, N. C. (2011). The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields. Global Change Biology,17(2), 997–1012.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhatt, R., Kukal, S., Busari, M. A., Arora, S., & Yadav, M. (2016). Sustainability issues on rice–wheat cropping system. International Soil and Water Conservation Research,4(1), 64–74.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brisson, N., Gate, P., Gouache, D., Charmet, G., Oury, F.-X., & Huard, F. (2010). Why are wheat yields stagnating in Europe? A comprehensive data analysis for France. Field Crops Research,119(1), 201–212.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cassman, K. G. (1999). Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: Yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture. Proceedings of the National academy of Sciences of the United States of America,96(11), 5952–5959.

    CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Erenstein, O. (2012). Resource scarcity gradients and agricultural technologies. Outlook on Agriculture,41(2), 87–95.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fan, S., & Chan-Kang, C. (2005). Is small beautiful? Farm size, productivity, and poverty in Asian agriculture. Agricultural Economics,32(s1), 135–146.

    Google Scholar 

  • FAOSTAT, 2017. FAOSTAT Agricultural data 2017. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/. Accessed 7 Feb 2019.

  • Finger, R. (2010). Evidence of slowing yield growth—the example of Swiss cereal yields. Food Policy,35(2), 175–182.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleeson, T., Wada, Y., Bierkens, M. F. P., & van Beek, L. P. H. (2012). Water balance of global aquifers revealed by groundwater footprint. Nature,488(7410), 197–200.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Godfray, H. C. J., Beddington, J. R., Crute, I. R., Haddad, L., Lawrence, D., Muir, J. F., et al. (2010). Food Security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science,327(5967), 812–818.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Grewal, S., & Goel, S. (2015). Current research status and future challenges to wheat production in India. Indian Journal of Biotechnology, 14, 445–454. http://nopr.niscair.res.in/handle/123456789/33991. Accessed 15 Feb 2019.

  • Hirel, B., Tétu, T., Lea, P. J., & Dubois, F. (2011). Improving nitrogen use efficiency in crops for sustainable agriculture. Sustainability,3(9), 1452–1485.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hirel, B., et al. (2001). Towards a better understanding of the genetic and physiological basis for nitrogen use efficiency in maize. Plant Physiology,125(3), 1258–1270.

    CAS  PubMed  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Humphreys, E., Kukal, S. S., Christen, E. W., Hira, G. S., Balwinder-Singh, Sudhir-Yadav, & Sharma, R. K. (2010). Halting the groundwater decline in north-west India—which crop technologies will be winners? Advances in Agronomy,109, 155–217.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalra, N., Chakraborty, D., Sharma, A., Rai, H. K., Jolly, M., Chander, S., et al. (2008). Effect of increasing temperature on yield of some winter crops in northwest India. Current Science,94, 82–88.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar, R. (2005). Constraints facing indian agriculture: Need for policy intervention. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 60(1). https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/204386/2/07-Ranjana Kumar.pdf. Accessed 7 Feb 2019.

  • Ladha, J., Dawe, D., Pathak, H., Padre, A., Yadav, R., Singh, B., et al. (2003). How extensive are yield declines in long-term rice-wheat experiments in Asia? Field Crops Research,81, 159–180.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lal, M., Singh, K. K., Rathore, L. S., Srinivasan, G., & Saseendran, S. A. (1998). Vulnerability of rice and wheat yields in NW India to future changes in climate. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,89(2), 101–114.

    Google Scholar 

  • Licker, R., Johnston, M., Foley, J. A., Barford, C., Kucharik, C. J., Monfreda, C., et al. (2010). Mind the gap: How do climate and agricultural management explain the ‘yield gap’ of croplands around the world? Global Ecology and Biogeography,19(6), 769–782.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lin, M., & Huybers, P. (2012). Reckoning wheat yield trends. Environmental Research Letters,7(2), 024016.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lobell, D. B., Sibley, A., & Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, J. (2012). Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nature Climate Change,2, 29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Naresh Kumar, S., Aggarwal, P., Swaroopa Rani, D., Saxena, R., Chauhan, N., & Jain, S. (2014). Vulnerability of wheat production to climate change in India. Climate Research,59(3), 173–187.

    Google Scholar 

  • Noor, M. A. et al. (2020). Small farmers and sustainable N and P management: Implications and potential under changing climate. Carbon and nitrogen cycling in soil, Springer, Singapore, 185–219. http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-981-13-7264-3_6. Accessed 6 Oct 2019.

  • Ortiz, R., Sayre, K. D., Govaerts, B., Gupta, R., Subbarao, G. V., Ban, T., et al. (2008). Climate change: Can wheat beat the heat? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,126, 46–58.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peltonen-Sainio, P., Jauhiainen, L., & Laurila, I. P. (2009). Cereal yield trends in northern European conditions: Changes in yield potential and its realisation. Field Crops Research,110(1), 85–90.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peng, S., Huang, J., Sheehy, J. E., Laza, R. C., Visperas, R. M., Zhong, X., et al. (2004). Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,101(27), 9971–9975.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ray, D. K., Ramankutty, N., Mueller, N. D., West, P. C., & Foley, J. A. (2012). Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nature Communications,3(1), 1293.

    PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Shah, T., Roy, A. D., Qureshi, A. S., & Wang, J. (2003). Sustaining Asia’s groundwater boom: An overview of issues and evidence. Natural Resources Forum,27(2), 130–141.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh, M. (2011). Yield gap and production constraints in rice-wheat system: Scenario from eastern Uttar Pradesh. Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Research,36(4), 623–632.

    Google Scholar 

  • Soora, N. K., Aggarwal, P. K., Saxena, R., Rani, S., Jain, S., & Chauhan, N. (2013). An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India. Climatic Change,118, 683–699.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tilman, D., Balzer, C., Hill, J., & Befort, B. L. (2011). Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,108(50), 20260–20264.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Tilman, D., Cassman, K. G., Matson, P. A., Naylor, R., & Polasky, S. (2002). Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Nature,418(6898), 671–677.

    CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Timsina, J., & Connor, D. (2001). Productivity and management of rice–wheat cropping systems: Issues and challenges. Field Crops Research,69(2), 93–132.

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Population Division, 2015. World population prospects the 2015 revision. Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York. https://doi.org/10.1128/AAC.03728-14

Download references

Acknowledgements

Anand Madhukar sincerely thank IIT Delhi for providing a research fellowship. Authors declare no conflict of interest or finance.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016, India

    Anand Madhukar, Vivek Kumar & Kavya Dashora

Authors
  1. Anand Madhukar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Vivek Kumar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Kavya Dashora
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kavya Dashora.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 761 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Madhukar, A., Kumar, V. & Dashora, K. Spatial and Temporal Trends in the Yields of Three Major Crops: Wheat, Rice and Maize in India. Int. J. Plant Prod. 14, 187–207 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42106-019-00078-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42106-019-00078-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation