Abstract
Declining reef-building corals around the world is a pressing issue. Infectious diseases are known to be a major cause of mass coral mortality. Vibrio coralliilyticus, a bacterial species, has gained increasing focus as an etiological agent of white syndrome in corals. The present study used nine types of model algorithms accomplished in the Species Distribution Modelling package, Biomod2, in the R statistical software to develop an ensemble global current prediction map of the coral pathogen, V. coralliilyticus. Based on the worldwide occurrence data, the pseudo-absences created using random strategy in the modelling package, and the data of nine environmental predictors, we generated a global ensemble model for predicting the susceptibility of hard corals to the pathogen. The ensemble model outperformed individual models with a True Skill Statistic (TSS) value of 0.987 and a Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) value of 0.998. Mean bathymetry is the most influencing environmental variable, followed by mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST). A high probability of the species was observed in the Hawaiian group of islands, the southern reefs of the Coral Triangle, and the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The prediction results can aid in the epidemiological management of V. coralliilyticus infections in reef systems.
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Data Availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Dr. A. Gopalakrishnan, Director, CMFRI, Kochi, for the support and encouragement during this study. We acknowledge the Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT) and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) for the facilitated support for the study. Special gratitude to the Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR), New Delhi, and University Grants Commission, respectively, for the Senior Research Fellowship (SRF), provided for the first author (No. 09/1135(0019)/2019-EMR-I) and the Junior Research Fellowship (JRF) provided for the third author.
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This research received no specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. This work was undertaken as part of the doctoral programme of the first author under the Council of Scientific & Industrial Research Senior Research Fellowship (CSIR NET-SRF).
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S. M. S Krishnaveny: Data collection, Methodology, Modelling, Writing—Original Draft. Shana S. S.: Data collection, Modelling. Mohamed Nisin K. M. N: Visualisation, Manuscript preparation. Sreenath K. R.: Conceptualisation, Validation, Supervision.
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Krishnaveny, S.M.S., S., S.S., N., M.N.K.M. et al. Global Distribution of Hard Coral Pathogen Vibrio coralliilyticus; an Ensemble Modelling Approach. Thalassas 40, 423–434 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41208-023-00612-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41208-023-00612-y