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Using fuzzy logic to generate conditional probabilities in Bayesian belief networks: a case study of ecological assessment

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Abstract

The survival of rare animals is an important concern in an environmental impact assessment. However, it is very difficult to quantitatively predict the possible effect that a development project has on rare animals, and there is a heavy reliance on expert knowledge and judgment. In order to improve the credibility of expert judgment, this study uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to visually represent expert knowledge and to clearly explain the inference process. For the case study, the primary difficulty is in determining a large amount of conditional probabilities in the BBN, because there is a lack of sufficient data concerning rare animals. Therefore, a new method that uses fuzzy logic to systematically generate these probabilities is proposed. The combination of the BBN and the fuzzy logic system is used to assess the possible future population status of the Pheasant-tailed jacana and the associated probabilities, which have been affected by the construction of the Taiwan High-Speed Rail. The analysis shows that a restoration program would successfully preserve the species, because in the restoration area, the BBN model predicts that there is a 75.49 % probability that the species will flourish in the future.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the National Science Council of the Republic of China (Taiwan) for financially supporting this research under Contract NSC 99-2221-E-131-010-MY2. The author also appreciates the editorial assistance provided by Dr. Michael McGarrigle.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Safety, Health and Environmental Engineering, Ming Chi University of Technology, New Taipei, 24301, Taiwan, Taiwan

    K. F.-R. Liu

  2. Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Taipei University of Technology, Taipei, 10608, Taiwan, Taiwan

    J.-Y. Kuo

  3. Department of Construction Science and Technology, De-Lin Institute of Technology, New Taipei, 23654, Taiwan, Taiwan

    K. Yeh

  4. Institute of Maritime Information and Technology, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, 80543, Taiwan, Taiwan

    C.-W. Chen

  5. Department of Architecture, National United University, Miaoli, 36003, Taiwan, Taiwan

    H.-H. Liang

  6. Institute of Wildlife Conservation, National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, Pingtung, 91201, Taiwan, Taiwan

    Y.-H. Sun

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  1. K. F.-R. Liu
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Liu, K.FR., Kuo, JY., Yeh, K. et al. Using fuzzy logic to generate conditional probabilities in Bayesian belief networks: a case study of ecological assessment. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 12, 871–884 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-013-0459-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-013-0459-x

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