Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Review of quantitative methods to assess impacts of changing climate and socioeconomic conditions on Arctic transportation systems

  • Frozen Infrastructures
  • Published:
Ambio Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Rapid climate and socioeconomic changes are transforming Arctic human–earth systems. An integral part of these systems is mobility, which encompasses the transport of humans and goods into, out of, and between Arctic regions. Impacts of climate and socioeconomic drivers on Arctic mobility are heterogenous. Methodologies are needed to quantify these impacts in measures that can be linked with broader socioeconomic systems. This article reviews existing methods and organizes them into a conceptual framework to understand trends and gaps in the literature. We found methods quantifying impacts of a range of climate drivers on most transportation modes present in the Arctic, but few methods focused on socioeconomic drivers. In addition, underrepresented were methods explicitly considering adaptive capacity of transportation systems. We provide insight into the data and relationships relevant to understanding impacts of Arctic change on transportation systems, laying a foundation for future work that investigates how these impacts fit into broader human–arth systems.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aksenov, Y., E.E. Popova, A. Yool, A.J.G. Nurser, T.D. Williams, L. Bertino, and J. Bergh. 2017. On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice. Marine Policy 75: 300–317.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • AMAP. 2017a. Adaptation actions for a changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Barents area. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, Oslo, Norway.

  • AMAP. 2017b. Adaptation actions for a changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Region. Oslo: Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Oslo.

    Google Scholar 

  • AMAP. 2018. Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic: Perspectives from the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait Region. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, Oslo, Norway.

  • Andrews, J., D. Babb, and D. G. Barber. 2017. Climate change and sea ice: Shipping accessibility on the marine transportation corridor through Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait (1980–2014). Elementa 5.

  • Andrews, J., D. Babb, and D. G. Barber. 2018. Climate change and sea ice: Shipping in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, and Foxe Basin (1980–2016). Elementa 6.

  • Arkhipov, A., E. Grigoriev, and M. Sinitsyn. 2020. The Northern sea route: a retrospective, strategic solutions and prospects of development. Topical Problems of Green Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering 2019.

  • Bardal, K.G. 2017. Impacts of adverse weather on Arctic road transport. Journal of Transport Geography 59: 49–58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barjouei, A. S., O. T. Gudmestad, and J. Barabady. 2020. Road transportation challenges in the Arctic. WIT Transactions on Engineering Sciences 129.

  • Barrette, P. D. 2018. The Canadian winter road infrastructure and climate change adaptation: prospective solutions through R&D. National Research Council of Canada. Ocean, Coastal, and River Engineering, Report OCRE-TR-2018–004, https://nrc-publications.canada.ca/eng/view/ft/?id=46ba2a4c-b74f-4ca0-9562-fd56bb870a46.

  • Bartsch, A., G. Pointner, I. Nitze, A. Efimova, D. Jakober, S. Ley, E. Högström, G. Grosse, et al. 2021. Expanding infrastructure and growing anthropogenic impacts along Arctic coasts. Environmental Research Letters 16.

  • Bell, T., R. Briggs, R. Bachmayer, and S. Li. 2015. Augmenting Inuit knowledge for safe sea-ice travel - The SmartICE information system. in OCEANS. IEEE, St. John's, NL, Canada.

  • Bennett, M.M. 2018. From state-initiated to Indigenous-driven infrastructure: The Inuvialuit and Canada’s first highway to the Arctic Ocean. World Development 109: 134–148.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bennett, M. M., S. R. Stephenson, K. Yang, M. T. Bravo, and B. De Jonghe. 2020. The opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, geopolitical, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts. Marine Policy 121.

  • Berman, M. 2013. Remoteness and Mobility: Transportation Routes, Technologies, and Sustainability in Arctic Communities. in Arctic Urban Sustainability Conference, George Washington University.

  • Biskaborn, B.K., S.L. Smith, J. Noetzli, H. Matthes, G. Vieira, D.A. Streletskiy, P. Schoeneich, V.E. Romanovsky, et al. 2019. Permafrost is warming at a global scale. Nature Communications 10: 264.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Box, J. E., W. T. Colgan, T. R. Christensen, N. M. Schmidt, M. Lund, F. J. W. Parmentier, R. Brown, U. S. Bhatt, et al. 2019. Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017. Environmental Research Letters 14.

  • Brooks, M.R., and J.D. Frost. 2012. Providing freight services to remote arctic communities: Are there lessons for practitioners from services to Greenland and Canada’s northeast? Research in Transportation Business and Management 4: 69–78.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brooks, N. 2003. Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual framework. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.

  • Cold, H. S., T. J. Brinkman, C. L. Brown, T. N. Hollingsworth, D. R. N. Brown, and K. M. Heeringa. 2020. Assessing vulnerability of subsistence travel to effects of environmental change in interior Alaska. Ecology and Society 25.

  • Cooley, S.W., J.C. Ryan, L.C. Smith, C. Horvat, B. Pearson, B. Dale, and A.H. Lynch. 2020. Coldest Canadian Arctic communities face greatest reductions in shorefast sea ice. Nature Climate Change 10: 533–538.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Debortoli, N.S., D.G. Clark, J.D. Ford, J.S. Sayles, and E.P. Diaconescu. 2019. An integrative climate change vulnerability index for Arctic aviation and marine transportation. Nature Communications 10: 1–15.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Debortoli, N.S., J.S. Sayles, D.G. Clark, and J.D. Ford. 2018. A systems network approach for climate change vulnerability assessment. Environmental Research Letters 13: 104019.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dimayuga, P. I., T. Galloway, M. J. Widener, and S. Saxe. 2021. Air transportation as a central component of remote community resilience in northern Ontario, Canada. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure.

  • Ding, W., Y. Wang, L. Dai, and H. Hu. 2020. Does a carbon tax affect the feasibility of Arctic shipping? Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 80: 102257.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drobot, S.D., J.A. Maslanik, and M.R. Anderson. 2009. Interannual variations in the opening date of the Prudhoe Bay shipping season: Links to atmospheric and surface conditions. International Journal of Climatology 29: 197–203.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ehrich, D., A.E. Thuestad, H. Tømmervik, P. Fauchald, and V.H. Hausner. 2019. Local land use associated with socio-economic development in six arctic regions. Ambio 48: 649–660. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-018-1095-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ford, J., D. Clark, T. Pearce, L. Berrang-Ford, L. Copland, J. Dawson, M. New, and S. Harper. 2019. Changing access to ice, land and water in Arctic communities. Nature Climate Change 9: 335–339.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ford, J.D., and C. Goldhar. 2012. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in resource dependent communities: A case study from West Greenland. Climate Research 54: 181–196.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gädeke, A., M. Langer, J. Boike, E.J. Burke, J. Chang, M. Head, C.P. Reyer, S. Schaphoff, et al. 2021. Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios. Environmental Research Letters 16: 024049.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gearheard, S., C. Aporta, G. Aipellee, and K. O’Keefe. 2011. The Igliniit project: Inuit hunters document life on the trail to map and monitor arctic change. The Canadian Geographer/Le Géographe Canadien 55: 42–55.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton, L.C., J. Wirsing, and K. Saito. 2018. Demographic variation and change in the Inuit Arctic. Environmental Research Letters 13: 115007.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hori, Y., V.Y. Cheng, W.A. Gough, J.Y. Jien, and L.J. Tsuji. 2018a. Implications of projected climate change on winter road systems in Ontario’s Far North, Canada. Climatic Change 148: 109–122.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hori, Y., W.A. Gough, B. Tam, and L.J.S. Tsuji. 2018b. Community vulnerability to changes in the winter road viability and longevity in the western James Bay region of Ontario’s Far North. Regional Environmental Change 18: 1753–1763.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC. 2021. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

  • Khan, B., F. Khan, B. Veitch, and M. Yang. 2018. An operational risk analysis tool to analyze marine transportation in Arctic waters. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 169: 485–502.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khon, V.C., I.I. Mokhov, and V.A. Semenov. 2017. Transit navigation through northern sea route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations. Environmental Research Letters 12: 024010.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khoreva, O.G., R. Konchakov, C.S. Leonard, A. Tamitskiy, and K. Zaikov. 2018. Attracting skilled labour to the North: Migration loss and policy implications across Russia’s diverse Arctic regions. Polar Record 54: 324–338.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiani, S., M. Irannezhad, A.K. Ronkanen, H. Moradkhani, and B. Kløve. 2018. Effects of recent temperature variability and warming on the Oulu-Hailuoto ice road season in the northern Baltic Sea. Cold Regions Science and Technology 151: 1–8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuloglu, T. Z., V. J. Lieffers, and A. E. Anderson. 2019. Impact of Shortened Winter Road Access on Costs of Forest Operations. Forests.

  • Kwok, R. 2018. Arctic sea ice thickness, volume, and multiyear ice coverage: Losses and coupled variability (1958–2018). Environmental Research Letters 13: 105005.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Larsen, J.N., and G. Fondahl. 2015. Arctic human development report: Regional processes and global linkages. Copenhagen: Nordic Council of Ministers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lasserre, F. 2019. Arctic shipping: A contrasted expansion of a largely destinational market. In The global Arctic handbook, ed. M. Finger and L. Heininen, 83–100. Cham: Springer International Publishing.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Lasserre, F., and P.L. Têtu. 2015. The cruise tourism industry in the Canadian Arctic: Analysis of activities and perceptions of cruise ship operators. Polar Record 51: 24–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu, C., F. Lian, and Z. Yang. 2021. Comparing the minimal costs of Arctic container shipping between China and Europe: A network schemes perspective. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 153: 102423.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCartan, S.and T. Kent. 2011. On thin ice- Hovercraft as an alternative logistics platform for the ice roads of Northwest Canada. International Conference on Marine Design. The Royal Institution of Naval Architects, Coventry, UK.

  • McGregor, R. V., M. Hassan, and D. Hayley. 2008. Climate change impacts and adaptation: case studies of roads in Northern Canada. Annual Conference of the Transportation Association of Canada. EBA Engineering Consultants Ltd., Toronto, Ontario.

  • Melvin, A.M., P. Larsen, B. Boehlert, J.E. Neumann, P. Chinowsky, X. Espinet, J. Martinich, M.S. Baumann, et al. 2017. Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 114: E122–E131.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Mudryk, L.R., J. Dawson, S.E.L. Howell, C. Derksen, T.A. Zagon, and M. Brady. 2021. Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming on ship navigation in the Canadian Arctic. Nature Climate Change 11: 673–679.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mudryk, L.R., C. Derksen, C. Howell, F. Laliberté, C. Thackeray, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, V. Vionnet, P.J. Kushner, et al. 2018. Canadian snow and sea ice: Historical trends and projections. The Cryosphere 12: 1157–1176.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mullan, D., G. Swindles, T. Patterson, J. Galloway, A. Macumber, H. Falck, L. Crossley, J. Chen, et al. 2017. Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 129: 1089–1108.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mullan, D. J., I. D. Barr, R. P. Flood, J. M. Galloway, A. M. W. Newton, and G. T. Swindles. 2021. Examining the viability of the world's busiest winter road to climate change using a process-based lake model. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102.

  • National Research Council. 2008. Potential impacts of climate change on US transportation. Transportation Research Board, Report 290.

  • Oh, J.H., S. Woo, and S.I. Yang. 2017. Ship accessibility predictions for the Arctic Ocean based on IPCC CO2 emission scenarios. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 53: 43–50.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olsen, J., M. Nenasheva, and G.K. Hovelsrud. 2021. ‘Road of life’: Changing navigation seasons and the adaptation of island communities in the Russian Arctic. Polar Geography 44: 1–19.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • PAME. 2020. The increase in Arctic shippin 2013–2019: Arctic shipping status report (ASSR) # 1. Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME).

  • Pearce, T., B. Smit, F. Duerden, J.D. Ford, A. Goose, and F. Kataoyak. 2010. Inuit vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change in Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, Canada. Polar Record 46: 157–177.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Porfiriev, B.N., D.O. Eliseev, and D.A. Streletskiy. 2019. Economic assessment of permafrost degradation effects on road infrastructure sustainability under climate change in the Russian Arctic. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences 89: 567–576.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Povoroznyuk, O., W. F. Vincent, P. Schweitzer, R. Laptander, M. Bennett, F. Calmels, D. Sergeev, C. Arp, et al. 2022. Arctic roads and railways: social and environmental consequences of transport infrastructure in the circumpolar North. Arctic Science.

  • Prowse, T.D., C. Furgal, R. Chouinard, H. Melling, D. Milburn, and S.L. Smith. 2009. Implications of climate change for economic development in Northern Canada: Energy, resource, and transportation sectors. Ambio 38: 272–281. https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-38.5.272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rantanen, M., A.Y. Karpechko, A. Lipponen, K. Nordling, O. Hyvärinen, K. Ruosteenoja, T. Vihma, and A. Laaksonen. 2022. The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979. Communications Earth & Environment 3: 168.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rawlins, M.A., M. Steele, M.M. Holland, J.C. Adam, J.E. Cherry, J.A. Francis, P.Y. Groisman, L.D. Hinzman, et al. 2010. Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations. Journal of Climate 23: 5715–5737.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodnina, N. V. 2022. On food security of the Northern and Arctic regions of Russia (using the example of the Republic of Sakha Yakutia). IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 988.

  • Rolph, R.J., A.R. Mahoney, J. Walsh, and P.A. Loring. 2018. Impacts of a lengthening open water season on Alaskan coastal communities: Deriving locally relevant indices from large-scale datasets and community observations. The Cryosphere 12: 1779–1790.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheepers, H., J. Wang, T.Y. Gan, and C.C. Kuo. 2018. The impact of climate change on inland waterway transport: Effects of low water levels on the Mackenzie River. Journal of Hydrology 566: 285–298.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmidt, J.I., M. Aanesen, K.B. Klokov, S. Khrutschev, and V.H. Hausner. 2015. Demographic and economic disparities among Arctic regions. Polar Geography 38: 251–270.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shojae Ghias, M., R. Therrien, J. Molson, and J.M. Lemieux. 2017. Controls on permafrost thaw in a coupled groundwater-flow and heat-transport system: Iqaluit Airport, Nunavut, Canada. Hydrogeology Journal 25: 657–673.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, L.C., and S.R. Stephenson. 2013. New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110: E1191–E1195.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Steiro, V.D., J.C. Ryan, S.W. Cooley, L.C. Smith, B. Dale, A.H. Lynch, and S. Veland. 2021. Changes in sea ice travel conditions in Uummannaq Fjord, Greenland (1985–2019) assessed through remote sensing and transportation accessibility modeling. Polar Geography 44: 282–296.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stephen, K. 2018. Societal impacts of a rapidly changing Arctic. Current Climate Change Reports 4: 223–237.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stephenson, S.R., L.C. Smith, and J.A. Agnew. 2011. Divergent long-term trajectories of human access to the Arctic. Nature Climate Change 1: 156–160.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stephenson, S.R., L.C. Smith, L.W. Brigham, and J.A. Agnew. 2013. Projected 21st-century changes to Arctic marine access. Climatic Change 118: 885–899.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stockton, E.J., C.R. Burn, and J. Humphries. 2021. Transport Canada’s Northern Transportation Adaptation Initiative (NTAI) 2011–2021. Ottowa, ON: Carleton University.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Streletskiy, D.A., L.J. Suter, N.I. Shiklomanov, B.N. Porfiriev, and D.O. Eliseev. 2019. Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost. Environmental Research Letters 14: 025003.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Szymoniak, N., G. Fay, and A.V. Melendez. 2010. Components of Alaska fuel costs: An analysis of the market factors and characteristics that influence rural fuel prices. Alaska: University of Alaska Anchorage Institute of Social and Economic Research.

    Google Scholar 

  • Transport Canada. 2018. Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System (AIRSS). https://tc.canada.ca/en/marine-transportation/arctic-shipping/arctic-ice-regime-shipping-system-airss.

  • Tretheway, M., R. Andriulaitis, J. Kositsky, and G. Tretheway. 2021. Northern and Arctic air connectivity in Canada, International Transport Forum Discussion Paper, No.2021/03. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), International Transport Forum, Paris.

  • van Lanen, J.M. 2018. Foraging and motorised mobility in contemporary Alaska: A twenty-first century ‘hunter-gatherer situation.’ Hunter Gatherer Research 3: 253–288.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vincent, W.F., M. Lemay, and M. Allard. 2017. Arctic permafrost landscapes in transition: Towards and integrated Earth system approach. Arctic Science 3: 39–64.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wei, T., Q. Yan, W. Qi, M. Ding, and C. Wang. 2020. Projections of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping routes in the twenty-first century using CMIP6 forcing scenarios. Environmental Research Letters 15: 104079.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Widener, M.J., S. Saxe, and T. Galloway. 2017. The relationship between airport infrastructure and flight arrivals in remote Northern Canadian communities. Arctic 70: 249–258.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeng, Q., T. Lu, K.-C. Lin, K.F. Yuen, and K.X. Li. 2020. The competitiveness of Arctic shipping over Suez Canal and China-Europe railway. Transport Policy 86: 34–43.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Y., Q. Meng, and S.H. Ng. 2016. Shipping efficiency comparison between Northern Sea Route and the conventional Asia-Europe shipping route via Suez Canal. Journal of Transport Geography 57: 241–249.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zheng, Y., and A.M. Kim. 2017. Rethinking business-as-usual: Mackenzie River freight transport in the context of climate change impacts in northern Canada. Transportation Research Part d: Transport and Environment 53: 276–289.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This research was funded as part of the Interdisciplinary Research for Arctic Coastal Environments (InteRFACE) project through the Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Earth and Environment Systems Sciences Division MultiSector Dynamics program. Awarded under contract grant # 89233218CNA000001 to Triad National Security, LLC (“Triad”).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD, 20740, USA

    Taryn Waite, Meredydd Evans, Nazar Kholod & Nina Blahut

  2. Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA

    Joel Rowland

Authors
  1. Taryn Waite
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Meredydd Evans
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Nazar Kholod
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Nina Blahut
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Joel Rowland
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Taryn Waite.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest with this work.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (PDF 693 kb)

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Waite, T., Evans, M., Kholod, N. et al. Review of quantitative methods to assess impacts of changing climate and socioeconomic conditions on Arctic transportation systems. Ambio 52, 1155–1169 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-023-01853-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-023-01853-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation