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Monte Carlo simulation-aided analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for flood susceptibility mapping in Gabes Basin (southeastern Tunisia)

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Abstract

Flash floods are among the most severe hazards which have disastrous environmental, human, and economic impacts. This study is interested in the characterization of flood hazard in Gabes Catchment (southeastern Tunisia), considered as an important step for flood management in the region. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information system are applied to delineate and characterize flood areas. A spatial database was developed based on geological map, digital elevation model, land use, and rainfall data in order to evaluate the different factors susceptible to affect flood analysis. However, the uncertainties that are associated with AHP techniques may significantly impact the results. Flood susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation and Global sensitivity analysis. AHP and MC–AHP models gave similar results. However, compared to AHP approach, MC–AHP confidence intervals (95%) of the overall scores had small overlaps. Results obtained were validated by remote sensing data for the zones that showed very high flood hazard during the extreme rainfall event of June 2014 that hit the study basin.

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Acknowledgements

This work was funded by the Ministry of High Education and Scientific Research in Tunisia. The authors would like to thank the reviewers and editors for their valuable comments and improvements of the manuscript.

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  1. GEOMODELE Laboratory, Faculty of Sciences, University of Sfax, BP 1171, 3000, Sfax, Tunisia

    Noura Dahri & Habib Abida

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  1. Noura Dahri
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Correspondence to Noura Dahri.

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Dahri, N., Abida, H. Monte Carlo simulation-aided analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for flood susceptibility mapping in Gabes Basin (southeastern Tunisia). Environ Earth Sci 76, 302 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-017-6619-4

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