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A comparative evaluation of heuristic and bivariate statistical modelling for landslide susceptibility mappings in Ghurmi–Dhad Khola, east Nepal

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Abstract

Landslides are one of the major natural disasters that occur in the Himalayan range with recurring frequency, causing enormous loss of life and property every year. Preparation of landslide inventory maps and landslide susceptibility zonation maps are the important tasks to be taken into account initially for safe mitigation measures. The present paper focuses on landslide susceptibility maps of the Ghurmi–Dhad Khola area, east Nepal, using Geographic Information System. For this purpose, the landslide susceptibility maps are prepared by using the heuristic and bivariate statistical methods. The parameters considered for the study are slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, distance from drainage, geology, land cover, rock and soil type, and distance from faults and folds. The landslide susceptibility zonation map produced from the heuristic method shows that 42.59 % of the observed landslide falls under the very high susceptible zone and 33.00 % under the high susceptible zone. Likewise, the landslide susceptibility zonation map produced from the bivariate method depicts that 44.19 % of the observed landslide falls under the very high susceptible zone and 31.59 % under the high susceptible zone. Both the landslide susceptibility zonation maps are identical, and success rates of both the maps are above 80 %. While comparing the landslide susceptibility maps obtained from two different methods, about 78 % of the study area falls in the identical susceptible zones. Special attention should be taken into consideration for the construction works in the areas which have been spatially agreed as very high and high susceptible zones from both techniques. Moreover, these maps can be used for slope management, land use planning, disaster management planning, etc., by the concerned authorities.

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Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge Dr. Kamala Kanta Acharya and Mr. Baburam Gyawali for their valuable support at all stages of this study. The authors also thank the Department of Survey, Government of Nepal, for providing the digital data; the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology for providing the rainfall and temperature data. The authors also like to acknowledge Prof. Dr. C. Gokceoglu and one anonymous reviewer for constructive suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Central Department of Geology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal

    Subeg Man Bijukchhen & Megh Raj Dhital

  2. Mountain Risk Engineering Unit, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal

    Prabin Kayastha & Megh Raj Dhital

  3. Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050, Brussels, Belgium

    Prabin Kayastha

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  1. Subeg Man Bijukchhen
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  2. Prabin Kayastha
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  3. Megh Raj Dhital
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Correspondence to Prabin Kayastha.

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Bijukchhen, S.M., Kayastha, P. & Dhital, M.R. A comparative evaluation of heuristic and bivariate statistical modelling for landslide susceptibility mappings in Ghurmi–Dhad Khola, east Nepal. Arab J Geosci 6, 2727–2743 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-012-0569-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-012-0569-7

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