Abstract
We compare five models of mast seeding: the well-established resource-based model of Isagi et al. (J Theor Biol 187:231–239, 1997) and Satake and Iwasa (J Theor Biol 203:63–84, 2000), the regression based model of Masaka and Maguchi (Ann Bot 88:1049–1055, 2001), the more recent Delta temperature (ΔT) model of Kelly et al. (Ecol Lett 16:90–98, 2013), the resource model of Pearse et al. (Oikos 123:179–184, 2014) and the long-used temperature model. We discuss fitting methods for each model and compare the theoretical overlap between the models. Population level data from 28 seed sets and corresponding mean summer temperature are used and the error of each model is compared. On average, the ΔT model provides a better fit than the other models tested.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ballantyne F, Kerkhoff AJ (2005) Synchronous reproduction and mean-variance scaling in model forest stands. J Theor Biol 235:373–380
Crone EE, Polansky L, Lesica P (2005) Empirical models of pollen limitation, resource acquisition, and mast seeding by a bee-pollinated wildflower. Am Nat 166:396–408
Crone EE, Mille E, Sala A (2009) How do plants know when other plants are flowering? Resource depletion, pollen limitation and mast-seeding in a perennial wildflower. Ecol Lett 12:1119–1126
Ichie T, Nakagawa M (2013) Dynamics of mineral nutrient storage for mast reproduction in the tropical emergent tree Dryobalanops aromatica. Ecol Res 28:151–158
Isagi Y, Sugimura K, Sumida A, Ito H (1997) How does masting happen and synchronize? J Theor Biol 187:231–239. doi:10.1006/jtbi.1997.0442
Kelly D (1994) The evolutionary ecology of mast seeding. Trends Ecol Evol 9:465–470. doi:10.1016/0169-5347(94)90310-7
Kelly D et al (2013) Of mast and mean: differential-temperature cue makes mast seeding insensitive to climate change. Ecol Lett 16:90–98. doi:10.1111/ele.12020
Kelly D, Sork VL (2002) Mast seeding in perennial plants: why, how, where? Annu Rev Ecol Syst 33:427–447. doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.33.020602.095433
Koenig WD, Knops JM, Carmen WJ, Stanback MT, Mumme RL (1996) Acorn production by oaks in central coastal California: influence of weather at three levels. Can J For Res 26:1677–1683
Krebs CJ, LaMontagne JM, Kenney AJ, Boutin S (2012) Climatic determinants of white spruce cone crops in the boreal forest of southwestern. Yukon Bot Bot 90:113–119. doi:10.1139/b11-088
Lyles D, Rosenstock TS, Hastings A, Brown PH (2009) The role of large environmental noise in masting: general model and example from pistachio trees. J Theor Biol 259:701–713. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.04.015
Masaka K, Maguchi S (2001) Modelling the masting behaviour of Betula platyphylla var. japonica using the resource budget model. Ann Bot 88:1049–1055. doi:10.1006/anbo.2001.1547
Monks A, Kelly D (2006) Testing the resource-matching hypothesis in the mast seeding tree Nothofagus truncata (Fagaceae). Austral Ecol 31:366–375. doi:10.1111/j.1442=9993.2006.01565.x
Pearse IS, Koenig WD, Knops JMH (2014) Cues versus proximate drivers: testing the mechanism behind masting behavior. Oikos 123:179–184. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0706.2013.00608.x
Poncet BN, Garat P, Manel S, Bru N, Sachet JM, Roques A, Despres L (2009) The effect of climate on masting in the European larch and on its specific seed predators. Oecologia 159:527–537. doi:10.1007/s00442-008-1233-5
Ranta H, Oksanen A, Hokkanen T, Bondestam K, Heino S (2005) Masting by Betula-species; applying the resource budget model to north European data sets. Int J Biometeorol 49:146–151
Rees M, Kelly D, Bjornstad ON (2002) Snow tussocks, chaos, and the evolution of mast seeding. Am Nat 160:44–59. doi:10.1086/340603
Ruscoe WA, Elkinton JS, Choquenot D, Allen RB (2005) Predation of beech seed by mice: effects of numerical and functional responses. J Anim Ecol 74:1005–1019. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2005.00998.x
Sakai S (2002) General flowering in lowland mixed dipterocarp forests of South-east Asia Biological. J Linn Soc 75:233–247. doi:10.1111/j.1095-8312.2002.tb01424.x
Sala A, Hopping K, McIntire EJB, Delzon S, Crone EE (2012) Masting in whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) depletes stored nutrients. New Phytol 196:189–199
Satake A, Iwasa Y (2000) Pollen coupling of forest trees: forming synchronized and periodic reproduction out of chaos. J Theor Biol 203:63–84. doi:10.1006/jtbi.1999.1066
Satake A, Iwasa Y (2002) The synchronized and intermittent reproduction of forest trees is mediated by the Moran effect, only in association with pollen coupling. J Ecol 90:830–838
Schauber EM et al (2002) Masting by eighteen New Zealand plant species: the role of temperature as a synchronizing cue. Ecology 83:1214–1225. doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[1214:mbenzp]2.0.co;2
Silvertown JW (1980) The evolutionary ecology of mast seeding in trees. Biol J Linn Soc 14:235–250
Smaill SJ, Clinton PW, Allen RB, Davis MR (2011) Climate cues and resources interact to determine seed production by a masting species. J Ecol 99:870–877. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01803.x
Stevenson MT, Shackel KA (1998) Alternate bearing in pistachio as a masting phenomenon: construction cost of reproduction versus vegetative growth and storage. J Am Soc Hortic Sci 123:1069–1075
Tachiki Y, Iwasa Y (2010) Both seedling banks and specialist seed predators promote the evolution of synchronized and intermittent reproduction (masting) in trees. J Ecol 98:1398–1408
Tanentzap AJ, Lee WG, Coomes DA (2012) Soil nutrient supply modulates temperature-induction cues in mast seeding grasses. Ecology 93:462–469
Acknowledgments
Authors would like to thank Andrea Byrom and Dave Kelly for useful discussions about this work and an anonymous referee whose comments improved the manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Holland, E.P., James, A. Assessing the efficacy of population-level models of mast seeding. Theor Ecol 8, 121–132 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-014-0238-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-014-0238-4