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Potential carbon impacts of smart grid development in six European countries

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Abstract

This paper examines reports on work carried out for the European Commission to devise a methodology for estimating the potential impact of smart grids on carbon emissions. It first identifies functionalities that enable carbon benefits to be realised. Each functionality on the demand side is assumed to be mirrored on the supply side, as when dynamic peak shifting ‘replaces’ flexible peak generation. Metrics are developed to describe the state of markets and to estimate customer response to demand response initiatives. Quantitative analysis identifies where the greatest scope for emissions reduction lies, while qualitative assessment indicates where to expect more or less impact from smart grid deployment. The impact of smart grid functionalities by 2020 is then modelled for six representative EU markets (Austria, France, Germany, Great Britain, Portugal and Spain), using a detailed pan-European market model and also a high-level ancillary services model. Three scenarios are developed: baseline, in which no smart grid rollout is assumed; feasible, based on what could be achievable in the light of technology developments and with supportive legislation; and an intermediate expected scenario, in which new technologies are introduced but nothing else changes. The findings indicate the potential for emissions reductions by 2020. They also show that the potential is very unlikely to be reached without regulatory support for user engagement in demand response and demand reduction, along with enabling technology and programmes. Development of regulatory frameworks that allow full advantage to be taken of the new technologies emerges as a challenge for smart grid development.

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Notes

  1. Similar effects were seen by EnergyAustralia in a trial in New South Wales (Strengers 2010).

  2. The second is to reduce the amount of spinning reserve needed for generation backup.

  3. Energy industry consumption is defined as electricity consumed by transformation industries for heating, traction and lighting purposes. It excludes own-use by power plant, and electricity used for heat pumps, electric boilers and pumped storage.

  4. There is some uncertainty about whether or not lignite should be included in the available capacity (in Germany and Spain), given its relative inflexibility compared to the other plant types. This means that the modelled emissions savings are higher, particularly for response, if lignite is included in the available fossil fuel capacity.

  5. The additional emissions are relatively small and result from the loss in efficiency in part-loading the plant.

  6. The additional emissions are larger as the plant has to produce at least at its minimum stable generation.

  7. Eighty per cent of the reserve potential is assumed to be held for the provision of the ancillary services, with the remaining 20 % used for dynamic peak shifting in the detailed electricity model, as noted above.

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Acknowledgments

This paper is based on work supported by the European Commission Directorate General Information Society and Media, which is gratefully acknowledged. Sarah Darby would also like to acknowledge support from the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council via two projects: SUPERGEN HiDEF (Highly Distributed Energy Future) and ADEPT (Advanced Dynamic Energy Pricing and Tariffs). The referees made useful suggestions to improve clarity. All views and any remaining errors are the authors’ own.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Lower Carbon Futures, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK

    Sarah Darby

  2. VaasaETT Global Energy Think Tank, Itämerenkatu 5, 2nd floor, 00180, Helsinki, Finland

    Jessica Strömbäck

  3. Poyry Management Consulting, King Charles House, Park End Street, Oxford, OX1 1JD, UK

    Mike Wilks

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  1. Sarah Darby
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  2. Jessica Strömbäck
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  3. Mike Wilks
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Correspondence to Sarah Darby.

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Darby, S., Strömbäck, J. & Wilks, M. Potential carbon impacts of smart grid development in six European countries. Energy Efficiency 6, 725–739 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-013-9208-8

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