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Resource of energy efficiency in Russia: scale, costs, and benefits

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Abstract

This paper considers Russian economy-wide energy efficiency potential by sectors and energy carriers. The assessment shows that Russian technical energy efficiency potential exceeds 45% of 2005 primary energy consumption or 294 mtoe (excluding associated gas flaring). This is about the annual primary energy consumption in France, the UK, or Ukraine, half of that in Japan, and over 2% of the global primary energy consumption. Related CO2 emission reduction potential is 50% of the Russian 2005 emission. Special attention is given to methodological issues in aggregating potentials identified in final energy use and to the evaluation of indirect energy efficiency gains. This study found that the energy efficiency potential doubles, if associated reduction of energy use, as well as technology progress, in energy production and transformation are accounted for. Cost curves for energy efficiency improvements were developed using the incremental cost approach to identify the cost-effective part of the potential.

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Notes

  1. At some power plants, in 2005, a large part of generation equipment was not loaded. This idle equipment was not considered as requiring replacement in the estimations below.

  2. Statistics report specific energy consumption to generate a unit of heat. As CENEf’s experience in many energy audits shows, in practice, small boilers are the least energy efficient. Therefore, statistical data do not mirror the real situation.

  3. See transportation section below for more details.

  4. It was not done for sulfur, which is about exclusively produced in Astrakhan Oblast from sulfur-rich natural gas and gas condensate, and so the conditions are too unique to be compared with other producers. Besides, the potential was not assessed for synthetic ammonia for high statistical discrepancy.

  5. This structure is quite close to the one reported for the IEA: 11 for 1973 (space heating—67%; water heating—16%; cooking—5%; lighting—3%; and appliances—9%) rather than to the 1998 data (OECD/IEA 2006).

  6. They require no energy procurement for space heating using only heat released by inhabitants and appliances.

  7. One of such all electric houses has been in operation in the US since 2002. Its daily electricity bill is only $US 0.82 ($US 0.45 for heating and cooling) versus $US 4–5 for a conventional house (OECD/IEA 2006).

  8. No survey data are available for such split; so it is an entirely intuitive estimate of CENEf experts.

  9. Various electric appliances, such as motors, refrigerators, etc.

  10. If passive houses are used as benchmarks, this potential comes closer to 100%.

  11. Any assessment of the potential relies on certain assumptions. The results of assessments are to be presented in intervals. But for the purpose of aggregation, it is often not convenient. The scale of potentials presented in this paper in single numbers should be taken as the middle of the uncertainty range. The level of confidence grows as the assessed category of the energy efficiency potential comes from the technical to the economic and then to the market potential. By nature, this effort is very close to the identification of energy resources deposits where the process starts from a very uncertain evaluation of the volume of potential resources to the much more reliable amount of proven resources.

  12. Russia’s long-term economic development projections for 2007–2030 (scenarios). Russian Academy of Science, Institute for Economic Projections, Moscow, May 2007. A large part of investment in energy supply is required merely to keep current production levels.

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Acknowledgments

This paper is mainly based on a study accomplished for the World Bank. The author is grateful to the CENEf experts K. Borisov, M. Dzedzichek, I. Gritsevitch, and A. Lunin for the assistance they provided for this study, as well as to the experts of the Moscow World Bank and IFC offices G. Sargsyan, I. Gorbatenko, B. Nekrasov, K. Mokrushina, and S. Solodovnikov for their detailed comments and suggestions, which allowed it to improve the quality of the study.

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  1. The Center for Energy Efficiency (CENEf), 61 Novocheremushkinskaya Street, Moscow, 117418, Russia

    Igor Bashmakov

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  1. Igor Bashmakov
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Correspondence to Igor Bashmakov.

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Bashmakov, I. Resource of energy efficiency in Russia: scale, costs, and benefits. Energy Efficiency 2, 369–386 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-009-9050-1

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