Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

West African sea level variability under a changing climate –what can we learn from the observational period?

  • Published:
Journal of Coastal Conservation Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study focuses on mean sea-level variability at the West African coast in the observational period (1993–2013) and its offshore waters, investigating its decadal variability, long-term trends and the large-scale climate patterns that are connected to its variability. To achieve this objective, statistically analyses is performed on several available data sets: sea-level data from tide gauges (Takoradi, Tema and Forcados), satellite altimetry (combined TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2/OSTM), gridded sea-level reconstruction (Church et al., J Clim 17(13):2609–2625, 2004), meteorological reanalysis (NCEP), a high-resolution ocean model simulation driven by this meteorological reanalysis, and, observational data sets (The Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST1), and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index). Ghana is the only country along the West African coast with two relatively long sea-level records available (Takoradi and Tema), but with data quality concerns (Woodworth et. al., Afr J Mar Sci 29(3):321–330, 2007). Attempts are made to combine these two records, which cover different but overlapping periods, to construct a regional sea-level curve for Ghana (1929–1981) that may be regionally representative. A physical connection is identified between the AMO, sea-surface temperature and sea level in the Gulf of Guinea and mean sea-level trends and variability of the West African coast. It has been found that a stronger AMO is connected with higher mean sea-level in the Tropical Atlantic and in particular also at the Gulf of Guinea sea-level. This connection may explain the multidecadal variability of sea-level there, and in particular the negative trends between 1955 and 1975 and the positive trends thereafter. In addition, warmer sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea are also connected with higher sea-level, although a simple estimation based on reasonable assumptions of the thermal expansion of the water column is not sufficient to explain the connection between sea-surface-temperature and sea-level. More detailed modelling studies will be needed to explain this link. Although this study provides useful information for adaption strategies in Ghana, the research is unable to provide sea-level information between the years 1981 and 1993 because of lack of data.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Amlalo DS (2006) The protection, management and development of the marine and coastal environment of Ghana. Administering marine spaces, international issues. International Federation of Surveyors, Copenhagen, Denmark

  • Anthoff D, Nicholls RJ, Tol RS, and Vafeidis AT (2006) Global and regional exposure to large rises in sea-level: a sensitivity analysis. Tyndall Centre for climate change research-working paper, 96

  • Appeaning Addo K (2011) Changing morphology of Ghana’s Accra coast. J Coast Conserv 15(4):433–443. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-010-0134-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Appeaning Addo K (2013) Assessing coastal vulnerability index to climate change: the case of Accra-Ghana. In: Conley D; Masselink G; Russell P, and O’Hare T (eds.) proceedings from the international coastal symposium (ICS) (2013) volume 1. Journal of coastal research, special issue no. 65: 1892–1897

  • Appeaning Addo K, Walkden M, Mills JP (2008) Detection, measurement and prediction of shoreline recession in Accra, Ghana. ISPRS J Photogramm Remote Sens 63(5):543–558. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2008.04.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Booth BB, Dunstone NJ, Halloran PR, Andrews T, Bellouin N (2012) Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. Nature 484(7393):228–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cazenave A, Llovel W (2010) Contemporary Sea-level rise. Annu Rev Mar Sci 2:145–173. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-120308-081105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheng Y, Plag H-P, Hamlington BD, Xu Q, He Y (2015) Regional Sea-level variability in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea. Cont Shelf Res 111:95–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2015.11.005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Church JA, White NJ (2011) Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surv Geophys 32(4–5):585–602. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Church JA, White NJ, Coleman R, Lambeck K, Mitrovica JX (2004) Estimates of the regional distribution of sea-level rise over the 1950–2000 period. J Clim 17(13):2609–2625. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2609:EOTRDO>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Church JA, Clark PU, Cazenave A, Gregory JM, Jevrejeva S, Levermann A, Merrifield MA, Milne GA, Nerem RS, Nunn PD, Payne AJ, Pfeffer WT, Stammer D, Unnikrishnan AS (2013) Sea level change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds.), Climate Change (2013): The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York: Cambridge University Press, 79

  • Chylek P, Klett JD, Lesins G, Dubey MK, Hengartner N (2014) The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate. Geophys Res Lett 41(5):1689–1697. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clement A, Bellomo K, Murphy LN, Cane MA, Mauritsen T, Rädel G, Stevens B (2015) The atlantic multidecadal oscillation without a role for ocean circulation. Science 350(6258):320–324

  • Coumou D, Robinson A, Rahmstorf S (2013) Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures. Clim Chang 118(3–4):771–782. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0668-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dangendorf S, Rybski D, Mudersbach C, Müller A, Kaufmann E, Zorita E, Jensen J (2014) Evidence for long-term memory in sea-level. Geophys Res Lett 41(15):5530–5537. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060538

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dangendorf S, Marcos M, Wöppelmann G, Conrad CP, Frederikse T, Riva R (2017) Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea-level rise. Proc Natl Acad Sci 114(23):5946–5951. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1616007114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, C., Wheeler, D., & Yan, J. (2007). The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136. In Velichko (2007). Ecosystems, Their Properties, Goods, and Services. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate.

  • Evadzi P, Zorita E, Hünicke B (2017a) Quantifying and predicting the contribution of sea-level rise to shoreline change in Ghana: information for coastal adaptation strategies. Journal of coastal research, (in-press. https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00119.1)

  • Evadzi P, Zorita E, Hünicke B (2017b) Awareness of sea-level response under climate change on the coast of Ghana. Journal of coastal conservation (accepted and in-production https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-017-0569-6)

  • Feng M, Hendon HH, Xie S-P, Marshall AG, Schiller A, Kosaka Y, Caputi N, Pearce A (2015) Decadal increase in Ningaloo Niño since the late 1990s. Geophys Res Lett 42(1):104–112. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062509

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frederikse T, Jevrejeva S, Riva RE, Dangendorf S (2018) A consistent sea-level reconstruction and its budget on basin and global scales over 1958–2014. J Clim 31(3):1267–1280. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0502.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gastineau G, Frankignoul C (2015) Influence of the North Atlantic SST variability on the atmospheric circulation during the twentieth century. J Clim 28(4):1396–1416. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00424.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han G, Ma Z, Bao H, Slangen A (2014) Regional differences of relative sea-level changes in the Northwest Atlantic: historical trends and future projections. J Geophys Res Oceans 119(1):156–164. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009454

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harlaß J, Latif M, Park W (2015) Improving climate model simulation of tropical Atlantic Sea surface temperature: the importance of enhanced vertical atmosphere model resolution. Geophys Res Lett 42(7):2401–2408. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063310

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hay CC, Morrow E, Kopp RE, Mitrovica JX (2015) Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise. Nature 517(7535):481–484. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14093

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In Stocker TF, Qin D , Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V and Midgley PM (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, p 1535

  • Jayson-Quashigah P-N, Appeaning Addo K, Kufogbe SK (2013) Medium resolution satellite imagery as a tool for monitoring shoreline change. Case study of the eastern coast of Ghana. J Coastal Res Special 65:511–516. https://doi.org/10.2112/SI65-087.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jevrejeva S, Moore JC, Grinsted A, Matthews AP, Spada G (2014) Trends and acceleration in global and regional sea-level s since 1807. Glob Planet Chang 113:11–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.12.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karl TR, Melillo JM, Peterson TC, Hassol SJ (ed) (2009) Global climate change impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. global change research program. Cambridge University press, Cambridge

  • Kistler R, Kalnay E, Collins W, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Kanamitsu M, Kousky V, van den Dool H (2001) The NCEP–NCAR 50–Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD–ROM and Documentation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82(2):247–267

  • Klein RJ, Dougherty WW, Alam M, Rahman A (2005). Technology to understand and manage climate risks. In background paper for the UNFCCC seminar on the development and transfer of environmentally sound Technologies for Adaptation to climate change, Tobago 2005 Jun (pp. 14-16)

  • Knight JR, Folland CK, Scaife AA (2006) Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 33(17). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026242

  • Königlich-Niederländisches Meteorologisches Institut (KNMI) (2014) http://climexp.knmi.nl/amo.cgi. Accessed 15 Jul 2014

  • Lyu K, Zhang X, Church JA, Slangen ABA, Hu J (2014) Time of emergence for regional sea-level change. Nat Clim Chang 4(11):1006–1010. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NCEP/NCAR (2014) 40-Year Reanalysis Project 77:437–470. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html. Accessed 20 Feb 2014

  • Permanent Service for Mean Sea-level (2014) Tide gauge data. Retrieved 20 July 2014 from http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/. Accessed 20 Jul 2014

  • Rayner NA (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14). https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670

  • Stammer D, Cazenave A, Ponte RM, Tamisiea ME (2013) Causes for contemporary regional sea-level changes. Annu Rev Mar Sci 5:21–46. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-121211-172406

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Storch J-SV, Eden C, Fast I, Haak H, Hernández-Deckers D, Maier-Reimer E, Marotzke J, Stammer D (2012) An estimate of the Lorenz energy cycle for the World Ocean based on the STORM/NCEP simulation. J Phys Oceanogr 42(12):2185–2205. https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-12-079.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sung M-K, An S-I, Kim B-M, Kug J-S (2015) Asymmetric impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on El Niño and La Niña characteristics. Geophys Res Lett 42(12):4998–5004. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064381

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tano RA, Aman A, Kouadio KY, Toualy E, Ali KE, Assamoi P (2016) Assessment of the Ivorian coastal vulnerability. J Coast Res 322:1495–1503. https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-15-00228.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Thompson PR, Merrifield MA, Wells JR, Chang CM (2014) Wind-driven coastal sea-level variability in the Northeast Pacific. J Climate 27(12):4733–4751. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-1300225.1

  • Timmermann A, McGregor S, Jin F-F (2010) Wind effects on past and future Regional Sea-level trends in the southern indo-Pacific. J Clim 23(16):4429–4437. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3519.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ting M, Kushnir Y, Seager R, Li C (2011) Robust features of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and its climate impacts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38(17):n/a-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048712

  • Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT (2012) Climate extremes and climate change: the Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010. J Geophys Res 117(D17). https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018020

  • Trenberth KE, Shea DJ (2006) Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005. Geophys Res Lett 33(12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026894

  • Tsimplis MN, Josey SA (2001) Forcing of the Mediterranean Sea by atmospheric oscillations over the North Atlantic. Geophys Res Lett 28(5):803–806. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012098

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wahl T, Chambers DP (2016) Climate controls multidecadal variability in U. S extreme sea-level records. J Geophys Res Oceans 121(2):1274–1290. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011057

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wakelin SL, Woodworth PL, Flather RA, Williams JA (2003) Sea-level dependence on the NAO over the NW European continental shelf. Geophys Res Lett 30(7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017041

  • Wang C, Zhang L (2013) Multidecadal Ocean temperature and salinity variability in the tropical North Atlantic: linking with the AMO, AMOC, and subtropical cell. J Clim 26(16):6137–6162. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00721.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang J, Yang B, Ljungqvist FC, Luterbacher J, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR, Zorita E (2017) Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years. Nat Geosci 10(7):512

  • Woodworth PL, Aman A, Aarup T (2007) Sea-level monitoring in Africa. Afr J Mar Sci 29(3):321–330. https://doi.org/10.2989/AJMS.2007.29.3.2.332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woolf DK, Shaw AGP, Tsimplis MN (2003) The influence of the North Atlantic oscillation on sea-level variability in the North Atlantic region. J Atmospheric Ocean Sci 9(4):145–167. https://doi.org/10.1080/10236730310001633803

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu Z, Huang NE, Long SR, Peng C-K (2007) On the trend, detrending, and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104(38):14889–14894. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0701020104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang J, Kelly KA, Thompson L (2016) The role of heating, winds, and topography on sea-level changes in the North Atlantic. J Geophys Res Oceans 121(5):2887–2900. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011492

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This research received funding support from the Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD) and the Institute of Coastal Research (Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht). This research appreciates the support of the Ghana Survey Department, Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) and other institutions for making data available for this research.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Coastal Impacts and Paleoclimate-Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Zentrum für Material- und Küstenforschung, Max-Planck-Straße 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany

    Prosper I. K. Evadzi, Eduardo Zorita & Birgit Hünicke

  2. Brockmann Consult GmbH, Chrysanderstr. 1, D-21029, Hamburg, Germany

    Prosper I. K. Evadzi

Authors
  1. Prosper I. K. Evadzi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Eduardo Zorita
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Birgit Hünicke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Prosper I. K. Evadzi.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Evadzi, P.I.K., Zorita, E. & Hünicke, B. West African sea level variability under a changing climate –what can we learn from the observational period?. J Coast Conserv 23, 759–771 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-019-00704-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-019-00704-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation