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Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

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Abstract

Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.

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(modified from Hessami et al. 2003; Vergés et al. 2011; Bahroudi and Talbot 2003; Zamani and Agh-Atabai 2009)

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science and Center of Excellence for Environmental Geo-hazards, and the Research Council of Shiraz University.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science, Tehran, Iran

    Sedigheh Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr

  2. Department of Geology, Shiraz Branch, Azad University, Shiraz, Iran

    Ahmad Zamani

  3. Department of Computer Science and IT, Faculty of Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

    Fatemeh Razavipour & Reza Boostani

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  1. Sedigheh Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr
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Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr, S., Zamani, A., Razavipour, F. et al. Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model. Acta Geophys. 65, 589–605 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-017-0055-4

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