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Examining a Hypothesized Causal Chain for the Effects of the 2007 Repeal of the Permit-to-Purchase Licensing Law in Missouri: Homicide Guns Recovered in State and within a Year of Purchase

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Abstract

Firearm-related deaths are a leading cause of death in the USA. Webster et al. (2014) found an association between Missouri’s repeal of a permit-to-purchase handgun licensing law and an increase in firearm-related homicides. The evidence for causality of this association would be strengthened by finding that the increase occurred through the hypothesized mechanism of increasing the ease with which those with violent intent could obtain guns. This study examines two measures: (1) proportion of guns recovered and purchased in-state and (2) time between firearm purchase and recovery by police following criminal use. The repeal was associated from 2008 to 2019 with a 0.05 increase in the proportion own-state gun trace (p < 0.0001, 95% confidence interval: 0.08,0.13) and a 0.10 increase in the proportion of guns recovered prior to 1 year after purchase (p = 0.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.20, 1.90). Our study provides supportive evidence for the repeal increasing firearm-related homicides.

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Fig. 1

Data Availability

The data used in this study are available in the Missouri_PTP_Repeal dataset, which can be accessed at the Harvard Dataverse repository (https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/V4K3HA). The dataset is provided by Michelle Li and is cited as Li, Michelle, 2023, ‘Missouri_PTP_Repeal’, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:FMeoDdXTwsL9GaHaKqaYOw== [fileUNF].

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Penn Undergraduate Research Mentoring program and the Wharton Dean’s Research Fund.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Statistics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA

    Michelle Li & Dylan Small

  2. Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Ting Ye

  3. Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA

    Yuzhou Lin

  4. Department of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA

    Daniel Webster

Authors
  1. Michelle Li
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  2. Dylan Small
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  3. Ting Ye
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  4. Yuzhou Lin
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  5. Daniel Webster
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Correspondence to Michelle Li.

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Li, M., Small, D., Ye, T. et al. Examining a Hypothesized Causal Chain for the Effects of the 2007 Repeal of the Permit-to-Purchase Licensing Law in Missouri: Homicide Guns Recovered in State and within a Year of Purchase. J Urban Health 100, 425–430 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-023-00739-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-023-00739-6

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