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Livestock production planning under environmental risks and uncertainties

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Abstract

In this paper we demonstrate the need for risk-adjusted approaches to planning expansion of livestock production. In particular, we illustrate that under exposure to risk, a portfolio of producers is needed where more efficient producers co-exist and cooperate with less efficient ones given that the latter are associated with lower, uncorrelated or even negatively correlated contingencies. This raises important issues of cooperation and risk sharing among diverse producers.

For large-scale practical allocation problems when information on the contingencies may be disperse, not analytically tractable, or be available on aggregate levels, we propose a downscaling procedure based on behavioral principles utilizing spatial risk preference structure. It allows for estimation of production allocation at required resolutions accounting for location specific risks and suitability constraints. The approach provides a tool for harmonization of data from various spatial levels. We applied the method in a case study of livestock production allocation in China to 2030.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria

    Günther Fischer, Tatiana Ermolieva, Yuri Ermoliev & Harrij van Velthuizen

Authors
  1. Günther Fischer
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  2. Tatiana Ermolieva
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  3. Yuri Ermoliev
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  4. Harrij van Velthuizen
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tatiana Ermolieva.

Additional information

Günther Fischer is leader of the Land Use Change and Agriculture (LUC) Program at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria), focusing on global climate change impacts and adaptation, on selected regional analyses in Asia and Europe to support sustainable and efficient use of land and water resources, and on development of analytical tools. He earned degrees in mathematics and in data/information processing from the Technical University, Vienna, and joined IIASA in 1974. He was a major contributor to IIASA’s studies on welfare implications of trade liberalization in agriculture, on poverty and hunger, and on impacts of climate change on food production, consumption and trade. In 2002, he led a special study commissioned by the United Nations for the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg assessing ecological-economic impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability. Recently, he contributed to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment as a Lead Author on food systems responses.

Tatiana Ermolieva has MSc in applied mathematics with specialization in statistics, optimization, economics from Kiev’s State University and Ph.D. from Institute of Cybernetics, Kiev, Ukraine. Dr. Ermolieva is affiliated with the Land Use and Agriculture Program at IIASA. Her main scientific research topics include modeling of complex socio-economic, environmental, and financial systems in the presences of uncertainties and risks, in particular of extreme catastrophic nature. Recent practical applications and scientific publications cover problems of spatial estimation and downscaling of aggregate agricultural values; agricultural production planning under risks and uncertainties; fast Monte Carlo optimization for insurance and mitigation of catastrophic losses; population aging, globalization and economic growth under demographic and economic shocks. Dr. Ermolieva received the Kjell Gunnarson’s Risk Management Prize of Swedish Insurance Society and the Dr. Aurelio Peccei Award of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

Yuri Ermoliev graduated from Kiev State University, Department of Mathematics. He received his Ph.D. in applied mathematics from the same university. Dr. Ermoliev holds the State Award in Science both of the Ukraine and of the USSR. He is a Member of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. Dr. Ermoliev has been Head of the Department of Mathematical Methods of Operations Research at the Institute of Cybernetics of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, Kiev. From 1979 to 1984 he was employed at IIASA undertaking research in non-differentiable and stochastic optimization problems. In 1991 he was a visiting professor at the University of California at Davis and returned to IIASA as co-leader of the Risk, Uncertainty and Complexity Project. Dr. Ermoliev’s publications concern stochastic optimization methods and models, path-dependent adaptation processes, pollution control problems, energy and agriculture modeling, reliability theory, and optimization of discontinuous systems subject to abrupt changes and catastrophic risks.

Harrij van Velthuizen is senior scientist in the Land Use Change and Agriculture Program at IIASA. Harrij van Velthuizen is land resources ecologist and specialist in agro-ecological zoning. He was a member of the working group that developed FAO’s Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) methodology. In the capacity of senior consultant and chief technical advisor of various organizations of the United Nations he has done extensive work on agro-ecological assessments for agricultural development planning covering over twenty countries in Asia, Africa, South America and Europe. Since 1995, Dr. van Velthuizen has been engaged with the activities of the IIASA’s Land Use Change and Agriculture Program. In 2001, he joined IIASA as research scholar and worked on enhancement of the AEZ methodologies for various applications including agricultural and forest production potentials and impacts of climate variability and climate change on food security.

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Fischer, G., Ermolieva, T., Ermoliev, Y. et al. Livestock production planning under environmental risks and uncertainties. J. Syst. Sci. Syst. Eng. 15, 399–418 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-006-5018-2

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