Abstract
With the continuous emission of greenhouse gases, climate issues such as global warming have attracted widespread attention. As the largest CO2 emitter, China proposes the target of reaching the CO2 emissions peak by 2030 at the 75th United Nations General Assembly. To determine whether China can realize the goal, we construct an assessment system consisting of a new discrete grey prediction model on the basis of a rolling mechanism and an improved IPCC method. First, the new grey prediction model is used to predict the CO2 emissions and GDP from 2021 to 2030, and then, the enhanced IPCC method is used to obtain the carbon intensity from 2021 to 2030. In line with the direct judgment based on CO2 emissions and the indirect judgment based on the comparison between the AADR of carbon intensity and the AAIR of GDP, we find that China faces great challenges and difficulties in achieving its carbon peaking target by 2030. Finally, based on the forecast data and China’s current situation, some policy recommendations are put forward to accelerate China’s CO2 peak goal.
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Data availability
The datasets used or analyzed in the current study can be obtained from China Statistical Yearbook and IEA database.
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Funding
This work was financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 22162007), the Science and Technology Supporting Project of Guizhou Province ( [2021]480), the Science and Technology Supporting Project of Guizhou Province ([2023]379), and the Wengfu (Group) Co., Ltd. Technology Development Project (WH-220787(YF)). Project from Guizhou Institute of Innovation and development of dual-carbon and new energy technologies (DCRE-2023-05)
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HL: model establishment, conceptualization, investigation, and writing—original draft; YX: data curation and formal analysis; WW: writing—review and editing; JZ: conceptualization; GL: investigation; and MT: supervised the project, funding acquisition, methodology, manuscript design, and writing—review and editing. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Lu, ., Xu, Y., Wang, W. et al. Can China reach the CO2 peak by 2030? A forecast perspective. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 123497–123506 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30812-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30812-1