Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The complex impacts of economic growth pressure on carbon emission intensity: an empirical evidence from city data in China

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Environmental Science and Pollution Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Excessive carbon emissions are the major challenge to global sustainable development. In the context of the coronavirus pandemic, pressure on global economic growth is gradually rising, threatening established carbon reduction targets. However, the relationship between economic growth pressures and carbon emission intensity has yet to be clearly discussed. Thus, this study quantitatively discusses the impacts of economic growth pressures from central (EGPN) and provincial (EGPP) governments on city carbon intensity. The study is based on data from China’s city panels from 2005 to 2019. This study finds that (1) there is a U-shaped correlation between economic growth pressure and a city’s carbon emission intensity, whether the economic growth pressure comes from the central government or the provincial government; (2) carbon emission intensity is more sensitive to economic growth pressure from the provincial government than it is to economic growth pressure from the central government. The findings of this study will help enhance the understanding of the relationship between economic growth pressure and carbon emission intensity, and can also provide a reference for global sustainable development that balances economic growth and environmental protection.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

References

  • Allen MR, Frame DJ, Huntingford C, Jones CD, Lowe JA, Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N (2009) Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Nature 458:1163–1166

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Arouri MEH, Youssef AB, M'Henni H, Rault C (2012) Energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Middle East and North African countries. Energy Policy 45:342–349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barbarossa V, Bosmans J, Wanders N, King H, Bierkens MFP, Huijbregts MAJ, Schipper AM (2021) Threats of global warming to the world’s freshwater fishes. Nat Commun 12:1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chai J, Hao Y, Wu H, Yang Y (2021) Do constraints created by economic growth targets benefit sustainable development? Evidence from China. Bus Strategy Environ 30:4188–4205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen H, Zhao L, Dong W, Cheng L, Cai W, Yang J, Bao J, Liang X-Z, Hajat S, Gong P, Liang W, Huang C (2022) Spatiotemporal variation of mortality burden attributable to heatwaves in China, 1979–2020. Sci Bull 67:1340–1344

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen J, Chen X, Hou Q, Hu M (2021) Haste doesn’t bring success: top-down amplification of economic growth targets and enterprise overcapacity. J Corp Financ 70:102059

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Q, Lv M, Gu Y, Yang X, Tang Z, Sun Y, Jiang M (2018) Hybrid energy system for a coal-based chemical industry. Joule 2:607–620

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Cheng J, Xu L, Wang H, Geng Z, Wang Y (2022a) How does the marginal abatement cost of CO2 emissions evolve in Chinese cities? An analysis from the perspective of urban agglomerations. Sustain Prod Consum 32:147–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheng J, Zou R, Wang H, Geng Z (2022b) How does China’s industrial wastewater shadow price evolve? The perspective of spatiotemporal characteristics and differences decomposition. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29:30363–30382

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deutch J (2017) Decoupling economic growth and carbon emissions. Joule 1:3–5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dietz T, Rosa EA, York R (2012) Environmentally efficient well-being: is there a Kuznets curve? Appl Geogr 32:21–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dong F, Yu B, Hadachin T, Dai Y, Wang Y, Zhang S, Long R (2018) Drivers of carbon emission intensity change in China. Resour Conserv Recycl 129:187–201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, Lavigne E, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Tobias A, Tong S, Rocklöv J, Forsberg B (2015) Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. The lancet 386:369–375

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grossman GM, Krueger AB (1991) Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement. National Bureau of economic research Cambridge, Mass., USA

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Guo L-Y, Feng C (2021) Are there spillovers among China’s pilots for carbon emission allowances trading? Energy Econ 103:105574

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han X, Yu J, Xia Y, Wang J (2021) Spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon emissions in energy-enriched areas and the evolution of regional types. Energy Rep 7:7224–7237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jaunky VC (2011) The CO2 emissions-income nexus: evidence from rich countries. Energy Policy 39:1228–1240

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kephart JL, Sánchez BN, Moore J, Schinasi LH, Bakhtsiyarava M, Ju Y, Gouveia N, Caiaffa WT, Dronova I, Arunachalam S (2022) City-level impact of extreme temperatures and mortality in Latin America. Nat Med 28(8):1700–1705

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Khare N, Singh D, Kant R, Khare P (2020) Global warming and biodiversity, current state and future impacts of climate change on biodiversity. IGI Global, Pennsylvania

    Google Scholar 

  • King AD, Karoly DJ, Henley BJ (2017) Australian climate extremes at 1.5 C and 2 C of global warming. Nat Clim Chang 7:412–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li D, Huang G, Zhu S, Chen L, Wang J (2021) How to peak carbon emissions of provincial construction industry? Scenario analysis of Jiangsu Province. Renew Sust Energ Rev 144:110953

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Li E, An Z, Zhang C, Li H (2022a) Impact of economic growth target constraints on enterprise technological innovation: evidence from China. PLoS One 17:e0272003

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Li F, Wang Z, Huang L (2022b) Economic growth target and environmental regulation intensity: evidence from 284 cities in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29:10235–10249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li R, Li S (2021) Carbon emission post-coronavirus: continual decline or rebound? Struct Change Econ Dynam 57:57–67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li X, Liu C, Weng X, Zhou L-A (2019) Target setting in tournaments: theory and evidence from China. Econ J 129:2888–2915

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin B, Moubarak M (2014) Mitigation potential of carbon dioxide emissions in the Chinese textile industry. Appl Energy 113:781–787

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Liu D, Xu C, Yu Y, Rong K, Zhang J (2020) Economic growth target, distortion of public expenditure and business cycle in China. China Econ Rev 63:101373

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu P, Liu L, Xu X, Zhao Y, Niu J, Zhang Q (2021a) Carbon footprint and carbon emission intensity of grassland wind farms in Inner Mongolia. J Clean Prod 313:127878

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Liu X, Wahab S, Hussain M, Sun Y, Kirikkaleli D (2021b) China carbon neutrality target: revisiting FDI-trade-innovation nexus with carbon emissions. J Environ Manage 294:113043

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Z, Deng Z, Davis SJ, Giron C, Ciais P (2022) Monitoring global carbon emissions in 2021. Nat Rev Earth Environ 3:217–219

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGlade C, Ekins P (2015) The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 C. Nature 517:187–190

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Narayan PK, Saboori B, Soleymani A (2016) Economic growth and carbon emissions. Econ Model 53:388–397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pan X, Guo S, Xu H, Tian M, Pan X, Chu J (2022) China’s carbon intensity factor decomposition and carbon emission decoupling analysis. Energy 239:122175

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pang J, Li N, Mu H, Zhang M, Zhao H (2022) Study on the spatial interaction between carbon emission intensity and shadow economy in China. Sci Total Environ 813:152616

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Peters A, Schneider A (2021) Cardiovascular risks of climate change. Nat Rev Cardiol 18:1–2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peters GP, Andrew RM, Boden T, Canadell JG, Ciais P, Le Quéré C, Marland G, Raupach MR, Wilson C (2013) The challenge to keep global warming below 2 C. Nat Clim Chang 3:4–6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raftery AE, Zimmer A, Frierson DMW, Startz R, Liu P (2017) Less than 2 C warming by 2100 unlikely. Nat Clim Chang 7:637–641

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rogelj J, McCollum DL, Riahi K (2013) The UN’s ‘Sustainable Energy for All’ initiative is compatible with a warming limit of 2 C. Nat Clim Chang 3:545–551

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shen F, Liu B, Luo F, Wu C, Chen H, Wei W (2021) The effect of economic growth target constraints on green technology innovation. J Environ Manage 292:112765

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shu C, Wang Q, Gao S, Liu C (2015) Firm patenting, innovations, and government institutional support as a double-edged sword. J Prod Innov Manag 32:290–305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shuai C, Chen X, Wu Y, Zhang Y, Tan Y (2019) A three-step strategy for decoupling economic growth from carbon emission: empirical evidences from 133 countries. Sci Total Environ 646:524–543

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Su X, Yang X, Zhang J, Yan J, Zhao J, Shen J, Ran Q (2021) Analysis of the impacts of economic growth targets and marketization on energy efficiency: evidence from China. Sustainability 13:4393

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun W, Huang C (2022) Predictions of carbon emission intensity based on factor analysis and an improved extreme learning machine from the perspective of carbon emission efficiency. J Clean Prod 338:130414

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sutherland BR (2019) Tax carbon emissions and credit removal. Joule 3:2071–2073

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson R, Hornigold R, Page L, Waite T (2018) Associations between high ambient temperatures and heat waves with mental health outcomes: a systematic review. Public Health 161:171–191

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Trisos CH, Merow C, Pigot AL (2020) The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change. Nature 580:496–501

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Turner WR, Oppenheimer M, Wilcove DS (2009) A force to fight global warming. Nature 462:278–279

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wang L, Wang H, Dong Z, Wang S, Cao Z (2021a) The air pollution effect of government economic growth expectations: evidence from China’s cities based on green technology. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28:27639–27654

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Q, Wang S, Jiang X-T (2021b) Preventing a rebound in carbon intensity post-COVID-19 – lessons learned from the change in carbon intensity before and after the 2008 financial crisis. Sustain Prod Consum 27:1841–1856

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang R, Saunders H, Moreno-Cruz J, Caldeira K (2019) Induced energy-saving efficiency improvements amplify effectiveness of climate change mitigation. Joule 3:2103–2119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Liu S, Huang L (2021c) Economic growth pressure and regional innovation — evidence from the setting of economic growth targets. China Econ Q 21:1147–1166

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu Y, Li S, Zhao Q, Wen B, Gasparrini A, Tong S, Overcenco A, Urban A, Schneider A, Entezari A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Zanobetti A, Analitis A, Zeka A, Tobias A, Nunes B, Alahmad B, Armstrong B, Forsberg B et al (2022) Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 6:e410–e421

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu L, Fan M, Yang L, Shao S (2021) Heterogeneous green innovations and carbon emission performance: evidence at China’s city level. Energy Econ 99:105269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu X, Gao Y (2015) Growth target management and regional economic growth. J Asia Pac Econ 20:517–534

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu X, Liu Y (2017) Economic growth target management. Econ Res 52(07):18–33

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang J, Cheng J, Zou R, Geng Z (2021) Industrial SO2 technical efficiency, reduction potential and technology heterogeneities of China’s prefecture-level cities: a multi-hierarchy meta-frontier parametric approach. Energy Econ 104:105626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu Y, Liu D, Gong Y (2019) Target of local economic growth and total factor productivity. Manage World 35:26–42

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang A, Deng R, Wu Y (2022) Does the green credit policy reduce the carbon emission intensity of heavily polluting industries?-Evidence from China’s industrial sectors. J Environ Manage 311:114815

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang F, Deng X, Phillips F, Fang C, Wang C (2020) Impacts of industrial structure and technical progress on carbon emission intensity: evidence from 281 cities in China. Technol Forecast Soc Change 154:119949

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Y-J, Da Y-B (2015) The decomposition of energy-related carbon emission and its decoupling with economic growth in China. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 41:1255–1266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao Q, Guo Y, Ye T, Gasparrini A, Tong S, Overcenco A, Urban A, Schneider A, Entezari A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM (2021) Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 5:e415–e425

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zheng YM, Lv Q, Wang YD (2022) Economic development, technological progress, and provincial carbon emissions intensity: empirical research based on the threshold panel model. Appl Econ 54:3495–3504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhong Q, Wen H, Lee C-C (2022) How does economic growth target affect corporate environmental investment? Evidence from heavy-polluting industries in China. Environ Impact Assess Rev 95:106799

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu B, Huang L, Yuan L, Ye S, Wang P (2020) Exploring the risk spillover effects between carbon market and electricity market: a bidimensional empirical mode decomposition based conditional value at risk approach. Int Rev Econ Financ 67:163–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge financial support from The National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No. 22CJY046), Chongqing Social Science Planning Social Organization Project, Chongqing, China (Grant No. 2022SZ05), and Research Base for Megacity's Delicacy Management, Chengdu, China (Grant No. TD2023Z01). The authors also extend great gratitude to the anonymous reviewers and editors for their helpful review and critical comments.

Funding

This research was funded by The National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No. 22CJY046), Chongqing Social Science Planning Social Organization Project, Chongqing, China (Grant No. 2022SZ05), and Research Base for Megacity's Delicacy Management, Chengdu, China (Grant No. TD2023Z01).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China

    Miao Zeng

  2. College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, China

    Kuan Zhang & Xin Deng

  3. College of Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, China

    Dingde Xu

  4. Center for Agricultural Ecology and Resource Protection of Sichuan, Chengdu, 610041, China

    Hongju Ma

Authors
  1. Miao Zeng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Kuan Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Dingde Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Hongju Ma
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Xin Deng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

Conceptualization: X.D. and M.Z.; methodology: M.Z.; software: M.Z.; formal analysis: M.Z. and X.D.; resources: D.X.; writing—original draft preparation: M.Z., K.Z., D.X., H.M., and D.X.; writing—review and editing: X.D. and M.Z.; visualization: X.D. and D.X.; funding acquisition: X.D. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Xin Deng.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval

Not applicable.

Consent to participate

Not applicable.

Consent for publication

All authors have approved the manuscript.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: Roula Inglesi-Lotz

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zeng, ., Zhang, K., Xu, D. et al. The complex impacts of economic growth pressure on carbon emission intensity: an empirical evidence from city data in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 109135–109144 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30040-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30040-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation