Abstract
The allocation of provincial carbon emission quotas under total amount control is an effective way for China to achieve its carbon peak and neutrality targets. Firstly, in order to study the factors influencing China’s carbon emissions, the expanded STIRPAT model was constructed; and combined with the scenario analysis method, the total of national carbon emission quota under the peak scenario was predicted. Then, the index system of regional carbon quota allocation is constructed based on the principles of equity, efficiency, feasibility, and sustainability; and the allocation weight is determined by the grey correlation analysis method. Finally, the total carbon emission quota under the peak scenario is distributed in 30 provinces of China, and the future carbon emission space is also analyzed. The results show that: (1) only under the low-carbon development scenario, can China reach the peak target by 2030, with a peak carbon of about 14,080.31 million tons; (2) under the comprehensive allocation principle, China’s provincial carbon quota allocation is characterized by high levels in the west and low in the east. Among them, Shanghai and Jiangsu receive fewer quotas, while Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guizhou receive more; and (3) the future carbon emission space for the entire country is modestly surplus, with regional variations. Whereas Hainan, Yunnan, and Guangxi have surpluses, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning have significant deficits.
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Data availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Funding
This work is supported by Hunan Provincial Philosophy & Society Science Foundation of China (17YBA241,21YBA214), Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (2022JJ30203), Changsha Municipal Natural Science Foundation (kq2202304), Project of Hunan Provincial Social Science Achievement Review Committee (XSP22YBC573, XSP2023ZDI005), and Excellent Youth Funding of Hunan Provincial Education Department (20B155).
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Conceptualization: Chunguang Quan. Formal analysis: Guiju Zhu. Writing—original draft: Shiqi Ouyang. Writing—review and editing: Xiaojuan Cheng. Supervision: Chunguang Quan.
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Cheng, X., Ouyang, S., Quan, C. et al. Regional allocation of carbon emission quotas in China under the total control target. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 66683–66695 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26874-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26874-w