Abstract
Land use demand change in the Huaihe River basin (HRB) and ecosystem service values (ESVs) in watersheds are important for the sustainable development and use of land resources. This paper takes the HRB as the research object, and using remote sensing images of land use as the data source adopts the comprehensive evaluation analysis method of ESVs based on equivalent factors and sensitivity analysis of the performance characteristics of ESV changes of different land use types. The PLUS model is used to predict spatiotemporal land use change characteristics to 2030 combining inertial development, ecological development, and cultivated land development. The spatial distribution and aggregation of ESVs at each scale were also explored by analyzing ESVs at municipal, county, and grid scales. Considering also hotspots, the contribution of land use conversion to ESVs was quantified. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land decreased sharply to 28,344.6875 km2, while construction land increased sharply to 26,914.563 km2, and the change of other land types was small. (2) The ESVs in the HRB were 222,019 × 1012 CNY in 2000, 235,015 × 1012 CNY in 2005, 234,419 × 1012 CNY in 2010, 229,885 × 1012 CNY in 2015, and 224,759 × 1012 CNY in 2020, with an overall fluctuation, first increasing and then decreasing. (3) The ESVs were 219,977 × 1012 CNY, 218,098 × 1012 CNY, 219,757 × 1012 CNY, and 213,985 × 1012 CNY under the four simulation scenarios of inertial development, ecological development, cultivated land development, and urban development, respectively. At different scales, the high-value areas decreased, and the low-value areas increased. (4) The hot and cold spots of ESV values were relatively clustered, with the former mainly clustered in the southeast region and the latter mainly clustered in the northwest region. The sensitivity of ecological value was lower than 1, while the ESV was inelastic to the ecological coefficient, and the results were plausible. The mutual conversion of cultivated land to water contributed the most to ESVs. Based on the multi-scenario simulation of land use in the HRB by the PLUS model, we identified the spatial distribution characteristics of ESVs at different scales, which can provide a scientific basis and multiple perspectives for the optimization of land use structure and socio-economic development decisions.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, upon reasonable request.
References
Ana PG, Ilse RG, Francesc B, Philip KR, Alberte B, Wolfgang C (2018) Impacts of urbanization around Mediterranean cities: changes in ecosystem service supply. Ecol Indic 91:589–606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.03.082
Andersson E, Langemeyer J, Borgström S, Mcphearson T, Haase D, Kronenberg J, Baró F (2019) Enabling green and blue infrastructure to improve contributions to human well-being and equity in urban systems. Bioscience 69(7):566–574. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biz058
Arowolo AO, Deng X, Olatunji OA, Obayelu AE (2018) Assessing changes in the value of ecosystem services in response to land-use/land-cover dynamics in Nigeria. Sci Total Environ 636:597–609. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.277
Assefa WW, Eneyew BG, Wondie A (2021) The impacts of land-use and land-cover change on wetland ecosystem service values in peri-urban and urban area of Bahir Dar City, Upper Blue Nile Basin Northwestern Ethiopia. Ecol Process 10(1):1–18. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-021-00310-8
Ayele AF, Atsushi T, Nigussie H, Mitsuru T, Hiroshi Y, Katsuyuki S, Jian S (2020). Cropland expansion outweighs the monetary effect of declining natural vegetation on ecosystem services in sub-Saharan Africa. Ecosyst Serv, 45, 101154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101154
Aytaç E (2022) Modeling future impacts on land cover of rapid expansion of hazelnut orchards: a case study on Samsun, Turkey. Eur J Sustain Dev Res 6(4):em0193. https://doi.org/10.21601/ejosdr/12167
Bing G, Xinqi Z, Meichen F (2016) Scenario analysis of sustainable intensive land use based on SD model. Sustain Cities Soc 29:193–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2016.12.013
Braat LC, De GR (2012) The ecosystem services agenda: bridging the worlds of natural science and economics, conservation and development, and public and private policy. Ecosyst Serv 1(1):4–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2012.07.011
Cao Y, Kong L, Zhang L, Ouyang Z (2021) The balance between economic development and ecosystem service value in the process of land urbanization: a case study of China’s land urbanization from 2000 to 2015. Land Use Policy 108:105536. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105536
Chen H, Yan W, Li Z, Wende W, Xiao S, Wan S, Li S (2022) Spatial patterns of associations among ecosystem services across different spatial scales in metropolitan areas: a case study of Shanghai, China. Ecol Indic 136:108682. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108682
Costanza R, d'Arge R, De Groot R, Farber S, Grasso M, Hannon B, Van Den Belt M (1997) The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature 387(6630):253–260. https://doi.org/10.1038/387253a0
Crossman ND, Bryan BA (2009) Identifying cost-effective hotspots for restoring natural capital and enhancing landscape multifunctionality. Ecol Econ 68(3):654–668. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.05.003
Crossman ND, Bryan BA, Summers DM (2011) Carbon payments and low-cost conservation. Conserv Biol 25(4):835–845. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01649.x
Cumming GS, Buerkert A, Hoffmann EM, Schlecht E, von Cramon-Taubadel S, Tscharntke T (2014) Implications of agricultural transitions and urbanization for ecosystem services. Nature 515(7525):50–57. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13945
Defeng Z, Yanhui W, Shuai H, Wenjing X, Leting L, & Shuai Y (2020). Spatial-temporal variation and tradeoffs/synergies analysis on multiple ecosystem services: a case study in the Three-River Headwaters region of China. Ecol Indic, 116, 106494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106494
Fan Q, Yang X, Zhang C (2022) A review of ecosystem services research focusing on China against the background of urbanization. Int J Env Res Pub He 19(14):8271. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19148271
Fenta AA, Tsunekawa A, Haregeweyn N, Tsubo M, Yasuda H, Shimizu K, Sun J (2020) Cropland expansion outweighs the monetary effect of declining natural vegetation on ecosystem services in sub-Saharan Africa. Ecosyst Serv 45:101154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101154
Gao X, Wang J, Li C, Shen W, Song Z, Nie C, Zhang X (2021) Land use change simulation and spatial analysis of ecosystem service value in Shijiazhuang under multi-scenarios. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28(24):31043–31058. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-12826-9
Gaodi X, Caixia Z, Lin Z, Leiming Z (2017) Dynamic changes in the value of China’s ecosystem services. Ecosyst Serv 26:146–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.06.010
García-Nieto AP, Geijzendorffer IR, Baró F, Roche PK, Bondeau A, Cramer W (2018) Impacts of urbanization around Mediterranean cities: changes in ecosystem service supply. Ecol Indic 91:589–606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.03.082
Gashaw T, Tulu T, Argaw M, Worqlul AW, Tolessa T, Kindu M (2018) Estimating the impacts of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem service values: the case of the Andassa watershed in the upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia. Ecosyst Serv 31:219–228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.05.001
Getis A, Ord JK (1992) The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics. Geogr Anal 24(3):189–206. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1992.tb00261.x
Groot DR, Brander L, Ploeg DVS, Constanza R et al (2012) Global estimates of the value of ecosystems and their services in monetary units. Ecosyst Services 1(1):50–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2012.07.005
Guzman LA, Escobar F, Peña J, Cardona R (2020) A cellular automata-based land-use model as an integrated spatial decision support system for urban planning in developing cities: the case of the Bogotá region. Land Use Policy 92:104445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104445
Hao X, Song M, Feng Y, Zhang W (2019) Decapacity policy effect on China’s coal industry. Energies 12(12):2331. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12122331
He T, Xiao W, Zhao Y, Deng X, Hu Z (2020) Identification of waterlogging in eastern China induced by mining subsidence: a case study of Google earth engine time-series analysis applied to the Huainan coal field. Remote Sens Environ 242:111742. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.111742
Hu S, Yang Y, Li A, Liu K, Mi C, Shi R (2022). Integrating ecosystem services into assessments of sustainable development goals: a case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China. Front Environ Sci, 629. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.897792
Huang R, Nie Y, Duo L, Zhang X, Wu Z, Xiong J (2021) Construction land suitability assessment in rapid urbanizing cities for promoting the implementation of United Nations sustainable development goals: a case study of Nanchang, China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28:25650–25663. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-12336-0
Jiang Y, Huang M, Chen X, Wang Z, Xiao L, Xu K, Shi Z (2021). Identification and risk prediction of potentially contaminated sites in the Yangtze River Delta. Sci Total Environ, 815, 151982. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151982
Jinghu P, Shimei W, Zhen L (2020). Spatiotemporal pattern of trade-offs and synergistic relationships among multiple ecosystem services in an arid inland river basin in NW China. Ecol Indic, 114, 106345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106345
Li SC (2019) Reflections on ecosystem service research. Landsc Arch Front 7(01):82–87
Lede N, Mei P, Yan Z (2020) Research on dynamic simulation and prediction of urban expansion based on SLEUTH model. Intl J Eng Syst Modell Simul 11(4):222–234. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJESMS.2020.111272
Lede N, Mei P (2021) Research on dynamic simulation of land use change based on geographical weighted CLUE-S model. Intl J Environ Technol Manag 24(1–2):49–61. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJETM.2021.115728
Leon CB, Rudolf DG (2012) The ecosystem services agenda: bridging the worlds of natural science and economics, conservation and development, and public and private policy. Ecosyst Serv 1(1):4–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2012.07.011
Li F, Zhang S, Yang J, Bu K, Wang Q, Tang J, Chang L (2016) The effects of population density changes on ecosystem services value: a case study in Western Jilin, China. Ecol Indic 61:328–337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.09.033
Li J, Dong S, Li Y, Wang Y, Li Z, Li F (2022). Effects of land use change on ecosystem services in the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor. J Clean Prod, 132175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132175
Liang X, Guan Q, Clarke KC, Liu S, Wang B, Yao Y (2021). Understanding the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model: a case study in Wuhan, China. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 85, 101569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2020.101569
Liu P, Hu Y, & Jia W (2021). Land use optimization research based on FLUS model and ecosystem services-setting Jinan City as an example. Urban Climate, 40, 100984. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100984
Maimaiti B, Chen S, Kasimu A, Mamat A, Aierken N, Chen Q (2022) Coupling and coordination relationships between urban expansion and ecosystem service value in Kashgar City. Remote Sens-Basel 14(11):2557. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14112557
Liu W, Zhan J, Zhao F, Yan H, Zhang F, Wei X (2019) Impacts of urbanization-induced land-use changes on ecosystem services: a case study of the Pearl River Delta metropolitan region, China. Ecol Indic 98:228–238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.10.054
Niu L, Pan M (2021) Research on dynamic simulation of land use change based on geographical weighted CLUE-S model. Int J Environ Technol Manag 24(1–2):49–61. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJETM.2021.115728
Pan J, Wei S, Li Z (2020) Spatiotemporal pattern of trade-offs and synergistic relationships among multiple ecosystem services in an arid inland river basin in NW China. Ecol Indic 114:106345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106345
Song W, Deng X (2017) Land-use/land-cover change and ecosystem service provision in China. Sci Total Environ 576:705–719. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.078
Pontius RG Jr, Millones M (2011) Death to Kappa: birth of quantity disagreement and allocation disagreement for accuracy assessment. Int J Remote Sens 32(15):4407–4429. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-007-0138-2
Pontius RG, Boersma W, Castella J, Clarke K, Nijs T, Dietzel C, Kok K (2008) Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change. Ann Reg Sci 42(1):11–37. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-007-0138-2
Robert C, Ralph D, Rudolf DG, Stephen F, Monica G, Bruce H, Marjan VDB (1997). The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature: International Weekly Journal of Science, 387(6630), 253–260. https://doi.org/10.1038/387253a0
Temesgen G, Taffa T, Mekuria A, Abeyou WW, Terefe T, Mengistie K (2018) Estimating the impacts of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem service values: the case of the Andassa watershed in the Upper Blue Nile basin of Ethiopia. Ecosyst Serv 31:219–228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.05.001
Tingting H, Wu X, Yanling Z, Xinyu D, Zhenqi H (2020) Identification of waterlogging in Eastern China induced by mining subsidence: a case study of Google Earth Engine time-series analysis applied to the Huainan coal field. Remote Sens Environ 242:111742. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.111742
Sun J, Li G, Zhang Y, Qin W, Wang M (2022) Identification of priority areas for afforestation in the loess plateau region of China. Ecol Indic 140:108998. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108998
Tan Z, Guan Q, Lin J, Yang L, Luo H, Ma Y, Wang N (2020) The response and simulation of ecosystem services value to land use/land cover in an oasis, Northwest China. Ecol Indic 118:106711. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106711
Wang Y, Wang X, Wang H, Zhang X, Zhong Q, Yue Q, Liang S (2022) Human health and ecosystem impacts of China’s resource extraction. Sci Total Environ 847:157465. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157465
Wei S, Xiang ZD (2017) Land-use/land-cover change and ecosystem service provision in China. Sci Total Environ 576:705–719. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.078
Xie G, Zhang C, Zhen L, Zhang L (2017) Dynamic changes in the value of China’s ecosystem services. Ecosyst Serv 26:146–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2017.06.010
Xie GD, Zhang C, Zhang L, Chen W, Li S (2015) Improvement of the evaluation method for ecosystem service value based on per unit area. J Natl Resour 30(08):1243–1254
Xie GD, Zhen L, Lu CX, Xiao Y, Chen C (2008) Expert knowledge based valuation method of ecosystem services in China. J Natl Resour 05:911–919
Xie GD, Xiao Y, Zhen L, Lu CX (2005) Study on ecosystem services value of food production in China. Chinese J Eco-Agri 03:10–13
Xie L, Wang H, Liu S (2022) The ecosystem service values simulation and driving force analysis based on land use/land cover: a case study in inland rivers in arid areas of the Aksu River Basin China. Ecol Indic 138:108828. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108828
Xueru Z, Wei S, Yanqing L, Xiaomiao F, Quanzhi Y, Jingtao W (2020) Land use changes in the coastal zone of China’s Hebei Province and the corresponding impacts on habitat quality. Land Use Policy 99:104957. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104957
Xu GH, Mei S, Yunan F, Wen Z (2019) De-capacity policy effect on China’s coal industry. Energies 12(12):2331. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12122331
Yang Y, Zhang Y, Su X, Hou H, Zhang S (2021) The spatial distribution and expansion of subsided wetlands induced by underground coal mining in eastern China. Environ Earth Sci 80(3):112. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-021-09422-y
Ye Y, Zhang J, Wang T, Bai H, Wang X, Zhao W (2021) Changes in land-use and ecosystem service value in Guangdong Province, Southern China, from 1990 to 2018. Land 10(4):426. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10040426
Yu Q, Hu Q, van Vliet J, Verburg PH, Wu W (2017) GlobeLand30 shows little cropland area loss but greater fragmentation in China. Intl J Appl Earth Observ Geoinform 66:37–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2017.11.002
Zhang X, Song W, Lang Y, Feng X, Yuan Q, Wang J (2020) Land use changes in the coastal zone of China’s Hebei Province and the corresponding impacts on habitat quality. Land Use Policy 99:104957. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104957
Zhe T, Qing YG, Jinkuo L, Liqin Y, Hai PL, Yun RM, Ning W (2020) The response and simulation of ecosystem services value to land use/land cover in an oasis Northwest China. Ecol Indic 118:106711. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106711
Zhou Y, Li X, Liu Y (2021) Cultivated land protection and rational use in China. Land Use Policy 106:105454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105454
Zhao XQ, Shi XQ, Li YH, Li YM, Huang P (2022) Spatio-temporal pattern and functional zoning of ecosystem services in the karst mountainous areas of southeastern Yunnan. Acta Geographica Sinica 77(03):736–756. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb20220301
Zheng D, Wang Y, Hao S, Xu W, Lv L, Yu S (2020) Spatial-temporal variation and tradeoffs/synergies analysis on multiple ecosystem services: a case study in the Three-River headwaters region of China. Ecol Indic 116:106494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106494
Funding
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41572333), Postgraduate Research Projects of Higher Education Institutions in Anhui Province (YJS20210408), and Huainan Closed Mine Geological Ecological Environment Assessment and Comprehensive Treatment Technology Research (HNKY-PG-WT-2021–260).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Xuyang Zhang: Methodology, investigation, writing original draft. Yuzhi Zhou: Formal analysis. Linli Long: Investigation. Pian Hu: Investigation. Meiqin Huang: Investigation. Wen Xie: Investigation. Yongchun Chen: Methodology. Xiaoyang Chen: Methodology.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval
Not applicable.
Consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
All authors reviewed and approved the manuscript for publication.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Philippe Garrigues
Publisher's note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, X., Zhou, Y., Long, L. et al. Simulation of land use trends and assessment of scale effects on ecosystem service values in the Huaihe River basin, China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 58630–58653 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26238-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26238-4