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Research on the economic abatement pathway of carbon peaking in China based on marginal abatement costs and abatement tasks allocation

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Abstract

China needs to achieve its carbon peaking target with minimal economic costs. This paper proposes a framework for achieving the carbon peaking target that emphasizes economic effects. Based on the prediction, the parametric directional distance function (DDF) is adopted to calculate the total factor carbon emission efficiency and marginal carbon abatement cost in each region of China before 2030, and the allocation scheme of the abatement tasks necessary for carbon peaking is optimized from the perspective of least cost. The empirical results show the following: (1) The predicted rapid growth of China’s economy from 2020 to 2030 will lead to a rapid increase in marginal abatement costs, with the average marginal carbon abatement cost increasing from 8,833 yuan/ton to 15,077 yuan/ton. The cost of carbon emission reduction in the future is very expensive. (2) The measured marginal abatement costs in China are positively correlated with carbon emission efficiency. In order to ensure economic development, developed regions should try to maintain the development trend, while the central and western regions take on more emission reduction tasks. (3) The emission efficiency is improved by optimizing the allocation scheme of the abatement tasks required to reach the peak, and the scientific and orderly path to reach the peak of each province and the corresponding lowest economic cost are obtained. This paper are of great theoretical and practical significance for the initial quota allocation in carbon trading market and ensuring the achievement of carbon peaking target under economic effect.

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Data availability

The datasets analyzed during the current study are available in the Statistical Yearbook Of China, China Energy Statistical Yearbook and the China Financial Statistical Yearbook.

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Acknowledgements

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit section.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, No.619 Yonghua Street, Baoding, 071003, Hebei, China

    Wei Li, Hongqing Ma & Can Lu

  2. Energy and Economic Development & Philosophy and Social Science Research Base of Hebei Province, North China Electric Power University), No.689 Hua Dian Road, Baoding, 071003, Hebei, China

    Wei Li & Can Lu

Authors
  1. Wei Li
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  2. Hongqing Ma
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  3. Can Lu
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Contributions

Wei Li contributed to the conceptualization, supervision and investigation.

Hongqing Ma was involved in the data curation, methodology and software.

Can Lu helped in writing—original draft preparation, writing—reviewing and editing and validation.

All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hongqing Ma.

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Highlights

• A parametric non-radial directional distance function is adopted considering the resource input dimension.

• The future carbon emission efficiency and marginal abatement cost are estimated.

• The allocation scheme of carbon emission reduction tasks required for carbon peak target is optimized.

• From the perspective of the lowest economic cost, the path of realizing the total carbon peak scientifically and orderly in 30 provinces of China is obtained.

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 Appendix A. Data Prediction Results (XLSX 53 KB)

Supplementary file2 Appendix B. Table B.1. CO2 emission estimation results (million tons) for 2010-2019 (XLSX 14 KB)

11356_2022_22641_MOESM3_ESM.xlsx

Supplementary file3 Appendix C. Table C1. MACs (Yuan/ton CO2-e) and carbon emission efficiency (Eb) results for 2020-2030 (XLSX 21 KB)

11356_2022_22641_MOESM4_ESM.xlsx

Supplementary file4 Appendix D. Table D.1. Results of carbon emission reduction task allocation (CR-thousand tons CO2-e) and efficiency improvement (Ei) and final carbon emission quota (CQ-thousand tons CO2-e) for 2020-2030 (XLSX 28 KB)

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Li, W., Ma, H. & Lu, C. Research on the economic abatement pathway of carbon peaking in China based on marginal abatement costs and abatement tasks allocation. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 7956–7972 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22641-5

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