Abstract
Changes in land management and climate alter vegetation dynamics; however, the factors driving vegetation changes remain elusive at multiple spatiotemporal levels. Here, we assess the drivers of changes in greenness from 2000 to 2015 in Northwest China (NW China). We used multiple stepwise linear regression (MSLR), redundancy analysis (RDA), and 12 other models to quantify the impacts of precipitation and temperature metrics, gross domestic product (GDP), population, and grazing intensity on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at three administrative levels (county, town, and village), four temporal levels (yearly, May, July, and September), two vegetation types (woodland and grassland), and at annual precipitation gradients of <200, 200–400, and >400 mm. The results suggest that NW China underwent vegetation greening from 2000 to 2015. Precipitation and temperature were the most influential factors contributing to the NDVI change. Population was the main determinant of NDVI under the precipitation gradient of <200 mm, and the effect of GDP on NDVI was moderate. On the temporal scale, annual precipitation, precipitation before the previous year, and precipitation in the current year determined the NDVI in May, July, and September, respectively, for both woodland and grassland. At multiple scales, climate change was the primary driver of vegetation change in NW China, rather than human disturbance. These findings expand our understanding on drivers of NDVI at multiple levels over a long period. Measures to manage decreasing vegetation coverage may be more effective and could be implemented sooner based on predicted climate change in drylands worldwide.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
References
Bardgett R, Wardle DA (2013) Aboveground-belowground linkages: biotic interactions, ecosystem processes, and global change. EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 92(26):222–222. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011EO260011
Cao X, Gu ZH, Chen J, Liu J, Shi PJ (2006) Analysis of human-induced steppe degradation based on remote sensing in Xilin Gole, Inner Mongolia, China. J Plant Ecol 30(2):268–277. https://doi.org/10.17521/cjpe.2006.0036
Chen T, Zhang Y, Christensen M, Li C, Hou F (2018) Grazing intensity affects communities of culturable root - associated fungi in a semiarid grassland of northwest China. Land Degrad Dev 29(2):361–373. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2773
Chuai SW, Huang XJ, Wang WJ, Bao G (2013) NDVI, temperature and precipitation changes and their relationships with different vegetation types during 1998–2007 in Inner Mongolia, China. Int J Climatol 33(7):1696–1706. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3543
Dolezal J, Fibich P, Altman J, Leps J, Uemura S, Takahashi K, Hara T (2020) Determinants of ecosystem stability in a diverse temperate forest. Oikos 129(11):1692–1703. https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.07379
Dong J, Liu J, Zhang G, Basara JB, Greene S, Xiao X (2013) Climate change affecting temperature and aridity zones: a case study in eastern Inner Mongolia, China from 1960–2008. Theor Appl Climatol 113(3-4):561–572. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0804-x
Esau I, Miles V, Davy R, Miles M, Kurchatova A (2016) Trends in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) associated with urban development in northern West Siberia. Atmos Chem Phys 16(15):9563–9577. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-51
Evans DM, Villar N, Littlewood NA, Pakeman RJ, Evans SA, Dennis P, Skartveit J, Redpath SM (2015) The cascading impacts of livestock grazing in upland ecosystems: a 10-year experiment. Ecosphere 6(3):1–15. https://doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00316.1
Fensholt R, Langanke T, Rasmussen K, Reenberg A, Prince SD, Tucker C, Scholes RJ, le QB, Bondeau A, Eastman R, Epstein H, Gaughan AE, Hellden U, Mbow C, Olsson L, Paruelo J, Schweitzer C, Seaquist J, Wessels K (2012) Greenness in semi-arid areas across the globe 1981–2007 — an earth observing satellite based analysis of trends and drivers. Remote Sens Environ 121:144–158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2012.01.017
Forbes BC, Ebersole JJ, Strandberg B (2011) Anthropogenic disturbance and patch dynamics in circumpolar Arctic ecosystems. Conserv Biol 15(4):954–969. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2001.015004954.x
Gherardi LA, Sala OE (2019) Effect of interannual precipitation variability on dryland productivity: a global synthesis. Glob Chang Biol 25(1):269–276. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14480
Gomiero T (2016) Soil degradation, land scarcity and food security: reviewing a complex challenge. Sustainability 8(2):281. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8030281
Guan Q, Yang L, Pan N, Lin J, Xu C, Wang F, Liu Z (2018) Greening and browning of the hexi corridor in northwest China: spatial patterns and responses to climatic variability and anthropogenic drivers. Remote Sens 10(8):1270. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10081270
Guo Y, Zeng J, Wu W, Hu S, Bryant CR (2021) Spatial and temporal changes in vegetation in the Ruoergai region, China. Forests 12(1):76. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12010076
Han JC, Huang Y, Zhang H, Wu X (2019) Characterization of elevation and land cover dependent trends of NDVI variations in the Hexi region, northwest China. J Environ Manag 232:1037–1048. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.11.069
Hao ZZ, Jiang WJ, Ju Q, Li L, Wang JH, Lu CY, Chang JJ (2010) Characteristics of climate change in the headwaters of Qinghai Tibet Plateau. Glaciers Permafrost 32(6):1130–1135
He N, Wen D, Zhu J, Tang X, Xu L, Zhang L, et al (2017) Vegetation carbon sequestration in Chinese forests from 2010 to 2050. Glob Chang Biol 23:1575–1584
Hopfner C, Scherer D (2011) Analysis of vegetation and land cover dynamics in north-western Morocco during the last decade using MODIS NDVI time series data. Biogeosciences 8(98):3359–3373. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-3359-2011
Huang J, Yu H, Guan X, Wang G, Guo R (2015a) Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change. Nat Clim Chang 6(2):166–171. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2837
Huang J, Sun S, Xue Y, Zhang J (2015b) Changing characteristics of precipitation during 1960–2012 in Inner Mongolia, northern China. Meteorol Atmosph Phys 127(3):257–271. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-014-0363-z
Huang K, Xia J, Wang Y, Ahlström A, Chen J, Cook RB, Cui E, Fang Y, Fisher JB, Huntzinger DN, Li Z, Michalak AM, Qiao Y, Schaefer K, Schwalm C, Wang J, Wei Y, Xu X, Yan L et al (2018) Enhanced peak growth of global vegetation and its key mechanisms. Nature Ecol Evol 2(12):1897–1905. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0714-0
Huang SW, Li XS, Wu BF, Pei L (2012) The distribution and drivers of land degradation in the Three-North Shelter Forest Region of China during 1982-2006. Acta Geograph Sin 67(5):589–598. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-011-0280-z
Humphrey C, Sneath D (1999) The end of nomadism? Society, state, and the environment in inner Asia. Duke University Press, Durham https://isbn.org/1874267367
Jiang L, Xiao Y, Zheng H, Ouyang Z (2016) Spatio-temporal variation of wind erosion in Inner Mongolia of China between 2001 and 2010. Chin Geogr Sci 26(2):155–164. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-016-0797-y
Kumpula T, Pajunen A, Kaarlejärvi E, Forbes BC, Stammler F (2011) Land use and land cover change in arctic Russia: ecological and social implications of industrial development. Glob Environ Chang 21(2):550–562. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.12.010
Lafuente A, Berdugo M, Ladrón de Guevara M, Gozalo B, Maestre FT (2018) Simulated climate change affects how biocrusts modulate water gains and desiccation dynamics after rainfall events. Ecohydrology 11(6):1935. https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.1935
León-Sánchez L, Nicolás E, Goberna M (2017) Poor plant performance under simulated climate change is linked to mycorrhizal responses in a semiarid shrubland. J Ecol 106(3):960–976. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12888
Lepš J, Šmilauer P (2003) Multivariate analysis of ecological data using CANOCO. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1442-9993.2005.01433.x
Li GY, Chen SS, Yan Y, Yu C (2014) Effects of urbanization on vegetation degradation in the Yangtze River delta of China: assessment based on SPOT-VGT NDVI. J Urban Plan Develop 141:05014026. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000249
Li H, Cai YL, Chen RS, Chen Q, Yan X (2011) Effect assessment of the project of grain for green in the karst region in Southwestern China: a case study of Bijie Prefecture. Acta Ecol Sin 31(12):3255–3264. https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1011.2011.00338
Li X, Guo R, Yang L, Hou Q (2009) Changes of precipitation and temperature and its impacts on agriculture in recent 50 years in Eastern Inner Mongolia. Sci Grograph Sinica 29(5):755–759. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1003-6326(09)60084-4
Li Y, Xie Z, Qin Y, Zheng Z (2019) Estimating relations of vegetation, climate change, and human activity: a case study in the 400 mm annual precipitation fluctuation zone, China. Remote Sens 11(10):1159. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11101159
Lu N, Wilske B, Ni J, John R, Chen J (2009) Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales. Environ Res Lett 4(4):045006 (6pp). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045006
Ma M, Collins SL, Du G (2020a) Direct and indirect effects of temperature and precipitation on alpine seed banks in the Tibetan Plateau. Ecol Appl 30(5):e02096. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2096
Ma Z, Guo J, Li W, Cai Z, Cao S (2020b) Regional differences in the factors that affect vegetation cover in China. Land Degrad Dev 32:1961–1969. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3847
Meng C, Xu Y, Li Q, Ma Y, Feng Q, Ma W, Pan J, Li K (2019) Analyses of observed features and future trend of extreme temperature events in Inner Mongolia of China. Theor Appl Climatol 139(1-2):577–597. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02969-8
Miao L, Sun Z, Ren Y, Schierhorn F, Müller D (2020) Grassland greening on the Mongolian Plateau despite higher grazing intensity. Land Degrad Dev 32(2):792–802. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3767
Moinardeau C, Mesléard F, Ramone H, Dutoit T (2020) Extensive horse grazing improves grassland vegetation diversity, seed bank and forage quality of artificial embankments (Rhône River - southern France). J Nat Conserv 56:125865. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2020.125865
Murthy K, Bagchi S (2018) Spatial patterns of long-term vegetation greening and browning are consistent across multiple scales: implications for monitoring land degradation. Land Degrad Dev 29(8):2485–2495. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3019
Nandintsetseg B, Shinoda M (2014) Multi-decadal soil moisture trends in Mongolia and their relationships to precipitation and evapotranspiration. Arid Land Res Manag 28(3):247–260. https://doi.org/10.1080/15324982.2013.861882
Nasar-u-Minallah M (2020) Exploring the relationship between land surface temperature and land use change in Lahore using Landsat data. Relat Between Land Surf Land Use Data 63A(3):188–200
Pan Q, Fan WY, Yu HQ et al (2012) Temporal and spatial variation of normalized difference vegetation index and its influencing factors in Beijing. J Beijing Univ 34(2):26–33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-011-0280-z
Peng Y, Mi K, Qing FT, Xue DY (2016) Identification of the main factors determining landscape metrics in semi-arid agro-pastoral ecotone. J Arid Environ 124:249–256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.08.009
Peng Y, Wang QH, Fan M (2017) Identification of the key ecological factors influencing vegetation degradation in semi-arid agro-pastoral ecotone considering spatial scales. Acta Oecol 85:62–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actao.2017.09.011
Peñuelas J, Gordon C, Llorens L, Nielsen T, Tietema A, Beier C, Gorissen A (2004) Nonintrusive field experiments show different plant responses to warming and drought among sites, seasons, and species in a north–south European gradient. Ecosystems 7(6):598–612. https://doi.org/10.2307/3658739
Pettorelli N, Vik JO, Mysterud A, Gaillard JM, Tucker CJ, Stenseth NC (2005) Using the satellite-derived NDVI to assess ecological responses to environmental change. Trends Ecol Evol 20(9):503–510. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2005.11.006
Pinzon JE, Tucker CJ (2014) A non-stationary 1981–2012 AVHRR NDVI3g time series. Remote Sens 6(8):6929–6960. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6086929
Rook AJ, Dumont B, Isselstein J, Osoro K, Wallisdevries MF, Parente G, Mills J (2004) Matching type of livestock to desired biodiversity outcomes in pastures – a review. Biol Conserv 119(2):137–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2003.11.010
Sardans J, Peñuelas J (2012) The role of plants in the effects of global change on nutrient availability and stoichiometry in the plant-soil system. Plant Physiol 160(4):1741–1761. https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.112.208785
Sardans J, Rivas-Ubach A, Peñuelas J (2012) The C: N: P stoichiometry of organisms and ecosystems in a changing world: a review and perspectives. Perspect Plant Ecol Evol Syst 14(1):33–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2011.08.002
Sellers P, Schimel D (1993) Remote sensing of the land biosphere and biogeochemistry in the EOS era: Science priorities, methods and implementation-EOS land biosphere and biogeochemical cycles panels. Glob Planet Chang 7(4):279–297. https://doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(93)90002-6
Song CQ, You SC, Ke LH, Liu GH, Zhong XK (2011) Spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau with responses to climate change. Chin J Appl Ecol 22(8):2091–2097. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1671-2927(11)60313-1
Sternberg T, Rueff H, Middleton N (2015) Contraction of the Gobi Desert, 2000-2012. Remote Sens 7(2):1346–1358. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70201346
Sun Y, Yang Y, Zhang L, Wang Z (2015) The relative roles of climate variations and human activities in vegetation change in north china. Phys Chem Earth 87-88:67–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2015.09.017
UN. (2011). Global drylands: A UN system-wide response. Prepared by the Environment Management Group of the United Nations. Retrieved from http://www.unccd.int/ListseDocumentLibrary/Publications/Global_Drylands_Full_Report.pdf
Verbyla D (2008) The greening and browning of Alaska based on 1982–2003 satellite data. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 17(4):547–555. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2008.00396.x
Wang C, Yang J, Zhang Q (2010) Soil respiration in six temperate forests in china. Glob Chang Biol 12(11):2103–2114
Wang J, Brown D, Agrawal A (2013) Climate adaptation, local institutions, and rural livelihoods: a comparative study of herder communities in Mongolia and inner Mongolia, China. Glob Environ Chang 23(6):1673–1683. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.014
Wang J, Guo N, Cai DH, Deng ZY (2009) The effect evaluation of the program of restoring grazing to grasslands in Maqu Country. Acta Ecol Sin 29(3):1276–1284. https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1000-0933.2009.03.023
Wang LW, Wei YX, Niu Z (2008) Quantitative analysis of spatial and temporal changes of overlapping coverage in Qinghai Province based on re analysis. Environ Sci 33(6):1754–1760. https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0250-3301.2008.06.052
Wang SP, Li YH, Feng JY, Wang JS, Wang J (2014) Characteristics of dry and wet change and its influencing factors in Gansu Province from 1961 to 2012. Desert China 34(6):1624–1632. https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00014
Warner K, Hamza M, Oliver-Smith A, Renaud F, Julca A (2010) Climate change, environmental degradation and migration. Nat Hazards 55(3):689–715. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9419-7
Wu DH, Wu H, Zhao X, Zhou T, Tang BJ, Zhao WQ, Jia K (2014) Evaluation of spatiotemporal variations of global fractional vegetation cover based on GIMMS NDVI data from 1982 to 2011. Remote Sens 6(5):4217–4239. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6054217
Yang D, Wang H, Cheng JQ, Guo PP (2013) Climate change in Qinghai and its relationship with ENSO in the recent 50 years. Acta Ecol Sin 22(4):547–553
Yu H, Luedeling E, Xu J (2010) Winter and spring warming result in delayed spring phenology on the Tibetan plateau. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 107(51):22151–22156. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1012490107
Zhang G, Biradar CM, Xiao X, Dong J, Thomas RJ (2018) Exacerbated grassland degradation and desertification in Central Asia during 2000–2014. Ecol Appl 28(2):442–456. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1660
Zhang ZX (2009) Geography of Qinghai. Science Press, Beijing
Zhao MX, Zhao HF, Li RQ, Zhang LY, Zhao FX, Liu LX, Shen RC, Xu M (2017) Assessment on grassland ecosystem services in Qinghai Province during 1998-2012. J Nat Resour 32(3):418–433
Zheng K, Wei JZ, Pei JY, Cheng H, Zhang XL, Huang FQ, Li FM, Ye JS (2019) Impacts of climate change and human activities on grassland vegetation variation in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Sci Total Environ 660:236–244
Zhou ZY, Li FR, Chen SK, Zhang HR, Li GD (2011) Dynamics of vegetation and soil carbon and nitrogen accumulation over 26 years under controlled grazing in a desert shrubland. Plant Soil 341(s1-2):257–268. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-010-0641-6
Zhu Q, Guo JX, Guo X et al (2019) Spatial variation of ecological environment quality and its influencing factors in Poyang Lake area, Jiangxi, China. Chin J Appl Ecol 30(12):4108–4116. https://doi.org/10.13287/j.1001-9332.201912.035
Zhuo L, Cao X, Chen J, Chen ZX, Shi PJ (2007) Assessment of grassland ecological restoration project in Xilin Gol grassland. Acta Geograph Sin 62(5):471–480
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the editors and reviewers for their constructive comments.
Funding
The National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC0505606); the Top Discipline and First-class University Construction Project (ydzxxk201818) of Minzu University of China.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
YP devised the project. YP, JS, and YZ developed the research questions and study design. JS, YZ, YH, LZ, ZW, JW, and YC collected, processed, and analyzed data. All authors contributed to the manuscript writing and editing.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Philippe Garrigues
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Shang, J., Zhang, Y., Peng, Y. et al. Climate change drives NDVI variations at multiple spatiotemporal levels rather than human disturbance in Northwest China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 13782–13796 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16774-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-16774-2