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Identification and future description of warming signatures over Pakistan with special emphasis on evolution of CO2 levels and temperature during the first decade of the twenty-first century

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Abstract

Like other developing countries, Pakistan is also facing changes in temperature per decade and other climatic abnormalities like droughts and torrential rains. In order to assess and identify the extent of temperature change over Pakistan, the whole Pakistan was divided into five climatic zones ranging from very cold to hot and dry climates. Similarly, seasons in Pakistan are defined on the basis of monsoon variability as winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon. This study primarily focuses on the comparison of surface temperature observations from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) network with PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) model simulations. Results indicate that PRECIS underestimates the temperature in Northern Pakistan and during the winter season. However, there exists a fair agreement between PRECIS output and observed datasets in the lower plain and hot areas of the country. An absolute increase of 0.07 °C is observed in the mean temperature over Pakistan during the time period of 1951–2010. Especially, the increase is more significant (0.7 °C) during the last 14 years (1997–2010). Moreover, SCIAMACHY observations were used to explore the evolution of atmospheric CO2 levels in comparison to temperature over Pakistan. CO2 levels have shown an increasing trend during the first decade of the twenty-first century.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for providing PRECIS simulations and surface monitoring network datasets. Our special gratitude goes to NUST RnD research funds for MS thesis for providing financial support to conduct this study. Our list of acknowledgement will be incomplete without recognizing Mr. Michael Buchwitz from the Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Germany, for providing level-2 CO2 data retrieved from SCIAMACHY observations.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Environmental Sciences and Engineering (IESE), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), H-12 Main Campus, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    Khadija Haider & Muhammad Fahim Khokhar

  2. Institute of Space Technology (IST), Islamabad Highway, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    Farrukh Chishtie

  3. Faculty of Forestry, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400, Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia

    Waseem RazzaqKhan

  4. Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia

    Khalid Rehman Hakeem

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  1. Khadija Haider
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  2. Muhammad Fahim Khokhar
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  4. Waseem RazzaqKhan
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  5. Khalid Rehman Hakeem
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Correspondence to Muhammad Fahim Khokhar or Khalid Rehman Hakeem.

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Haider, K., Khokhar, M.F., Chishtie, F. et al. Identification and future description of warming signatures over Pakistan with special emphasis on evolution of CO2 levels and temperature during the first decade of the twenty-first century. Environ Sci Pollut Res 24, 7617–7629 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-016-8359-5

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