Abstract
As obligate scavengers, vultures are important to ecosystem health but their numbers are declining globally. A major cause may be habitat loss due to anthropogenic or natural factors. Four threatened and endangered non-Gyps vultures (Bearded, Cinereous, Egyptian, Red-headed) found in many other countries also inhabit diverse floristic landscapes of India. This study aimed to determine present habitat expanse and the projected changes in habitat in future, identify vital habitat influencing factors, and suggest conservation strategies. Species Distribution Model Maxent, presence locations and bioclimate data for the present, and short- and long-term future were used and predictions were made for these four species. To increase the accuracy, uncertainties were removed, ensemble models were created using three GCMs and data for two RCPs (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) across two future tenures. All the models had strong predictability (AUC: 0.759–0.966, TSS: 0.445–0.866, and CBI: 0.986–1.000). With respect to habitat suitability across the landscapes, in the present-day scenario, 5%, 10%, 18% and 48% of the area were found suitable for Bearded, Cinereous, Red-headed, and Egyptian vultures, respectively, against 3.28 million km2. This expanse fluctuated due to the changing climate in future scenarios, considerably large patches undergoing either loss or gain in suitability. The three most vital bioclimatic variables for habitat prediction were bio19 (Precipitation of coldest quarter), bio01 (Mean annual temperature), and bio07 (Temperature annual range). The data generated could be useful in developing conservation strategies. Consistently suitable area could be used for establishing vulture protection area and vulnerable areas for habitat improvement.
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The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available in the manuscript and supplementary.
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Jha, R., Jha, K.K. Prediction of habitat suitability dynamics and environmental factors of non-Gyps vultures for conservation in floristic landscapes of India. Landscape Ecol Eng 20, 19–31 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11355-023-00575-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11355-023-00575-5