Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Paleoclimate analogues and the threshold problem

  • Original Research
  • Published:
Synthese Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Abstract: Climate models calibrated exclusively with observations from the 19th through 21st centuries are unsuitable for assessing many important hypotheses about the future. Many systems in the modern climate are expected to cross dynamic thresholds in the near future, requiring more than the instrumental record for adequate calibration. In this paper I argue that paleoclimate analogues from earth’s past can mitigate this threshold problem, even if the modern climate exhibits features that make it historically unique. While this requires that paleoclimatologists be increasingly discriminate in the past systems they target for modern analogues, the upshot is a practice of climate model construction that improves the reliability of future projections. All of this is achieved by integrating features of past climate systems discovered by the study of earth deep in the past. My analysis synthesizes important empirical work done by climate modelers and paleoclimatologists with relevant philosophical work on analogical reasoning in science.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. My reasoning here echoes Humphreys objection to the overlap argument (Humphreys, 2004). That a simulation “overlaps” some data set does not alone imply it will overlap with other data sets.

  2. Snow-albedo processes include positive feedbacks in two directions. Increases in snow cover lead to increased albedo and lower temperatures, which leads to further increases in snow cover. Decreases in snow cover lead to decreased albedo and higher temperatures, which leads to further decreases in snow cover.

  3. For a detailed discussion of EC, see Klein and Hall (2015).

  4. Bartha himself articulates a causal analogy for life on mars. For the sake of simplicity, I have put forward a streamlined correlative analogy.

  5. There was a slight dip in carbon emissions in the first half of 2020 as a result of Covid-19 response, but emission rates have since rebounded (Liu et al., 2020, 2022).

  6. A controversy surrounding rates and temporal scaling has, under some interpretations, allowed carbon release rates for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) consistent with modern rates (Gingerich, 2019; Kemp 2015). That being said, the rates collected from such techniques are “poorly constrained” for a number of reasons, including the presumption of a single onset event for the PETM (Gingerich, 2019, p. 332–333). As such, a variety of carbon release rates are possible given our understanding of PETM, and we should withhold judgment regarding specific rates until they can be further constrained. That being said, if PETM carbon release rates turn out to resemble modern rates, the more plausible it is that PETM will afford useful partial analogies. (See Watkins (2023) for a discussion of some important philosophical challenges involved in temporal scaling.)

  7. I argue in a later Sect. (6) that despite the apparent disavowal of analogy, the processes considered in Schmidt’s paleoclimate priorities are appropriately understood as partial analogues for the modern climate.

  8. While it would seem odd for Currie to call the construction of a model on present and future climate a “historical” reconstruction, I don’t see that using such a descriptor generates any immediate problems. It is likely that the exquisite corpse method simply finds more application in the reconstruction of historical (understood as ‘past’) targets.

  9. Remember that ocean circulation is driven by a number of factors, including temperature, salinity, the rotation of the earth, wind, and tidal forces. The flourishing of marine life is dependent on temperature conditions, but also the availability of oxygen, nitrogen, and other nutrients, as well as conditions pertaining to the alkalinity or acidity of the ocean.

References

  • Bartha, P. (2010). By parallel reasoning. Oxford University Press.

  • Bokulich, A. (2021). Using models to correct data: Paleodiversity and the fossil record. Synthese, 198(24), 5919–5940.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G., & Saba, V. (2018). Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature, 556(7700), 191–196. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chapman, R., & Wylie, A. (2018). Evidential reasoning in archaeology. Bloomsbury Publishing.

  • Crowley, T. J. (1990). Are there any satisfactory geologic analogs for a future greenhouse warming? Journal of Climate, 3(11), 1282–1292.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Currie, A. (2016). Ethnographic analogy, the comparative method, and archaeological special pleading. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 55, 84–94.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Currie, A. (2018). Rock, bone, and ruin: An optimist’s guide to the historical sciences. MIT Press.

  • Currie, A. (2021). Science & speculation. Erkenntnis, 1–23.

  • Dardashti, R., Thébault, K. P., & Winsberg, E. (2017). Confirmation via analogue simulation: What dumb holes could tell us about gravity. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.

  • de Abreu, L., Abrantes, F. F., Shackleton, N. J., Tzedakis, P. C., McManus, J. F., Oppo, D. W., & Hall, M. A. (2005). Ocean climate variability in the eastern North Atlantic during interglacial marine isotope stage 11: A partial analogue to the Holocene? Paleoceanography, 20(3).

  • Dresow, M. (2021). Measuring time with fossils: A Start-Up Problem in Scientific Practice. Philosophy of Science, 88(5), 940–950.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • During, M. A., Smit, J., Voeten, D. F., Berruyer, C., Tafforeau, P., Sanchez, S., & van der Lubbe, J. H. (2022). The mesozoic terminated in boreal spring. Nature, 603(7899), 91–94.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dutton, A., Carlson, A. E., Long, A., Milne, G. A., Clark, P. U., DeConto, R., Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., & Raymo, M. E. (2015). Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods. Science, 349(6244), aaa4019.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Friedlingstein, P., Houghton, R. A., Marland, G., Hackler, J., Boden, T. A., Conway, T. J., Canadell, J. G., Raupach, M. R., Ciais, P., & Le Quéré, C. (2010). Update on CO 2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, 3(12), 811.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gibbs, S. J., Bown, P. R., Murphy, B. H., Sluijs, A., Edgar, K. M., Pälike, H., Bolton, C. T., & Zachos, J. C. (2012). Scaled biotic disruption during early Eocene global warming events. Biogeosciences, 9(11), 4679–4688.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gill, J. L., Williams, J. W., Jackson, S. T., Lininger, K. B., & Robinson, G. S. (2009). Pleistocene megafaunal collapse, novel plant communities, and enhanced fire regimes in North America. Science, 326(5956), 1100–1103.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gingerich, P. D. (2019). Temporal scaling of Carbon Emission and Accumulation Rates: Modern anthropogenic emissions compared to estimates of PETM Onset Accumulation. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 34(3), 329–335. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018PA003379

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hall, A., & Qu, X. (2006). Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(3).

  • Hausfather, Z., Drake, H. F., Abbott, T., & Schmidt, G. A. (2020). Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(1), e2019GL085378.

  • Hay, W. (2017). LEARNING ABOUT PAST CATASTROPHES FROM THE PRESENT PERTURBATION. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.20155.41765

  • Hoffman, J. S., Carlson, A. E., Winsor, K., Klinkhammer, G. P., LeGrande, A. N., Andrews, J. T., & Strasser, J. C. (2012). Linking the 8.2 ka event and its freshwater forcing in the Labrador Sea. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(18).

  • Humphreys, P. (2004). Extending ourselves: Computational science, empiricism, and scientific method. Oxford University Press.

  • Kemp, D. B., Eichenseer, K., & Kiessling, W. (2015). Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record. Nature Communications, 6(1), 8890. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms9890

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klein, S. A., & Hall, A. (2015). Emergent constraints for cloud feedbacks. Current climate change reports, 1(4), 276–287.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee, C. T. A., Jiang, H., Dasgupta, R., & Torres, M. (2019). A Framework for understanding whole-earth Carbon Cycling. Deep Carbon: Past to Present (pp. 313–357). Cambridge University Press.

  • LeGrande, A. N., Schmidt, G. A., Shindell, D. T., Field, C. V., Miller, R. L., Koch, D. M., Faluvegi, G., & Hoffmann, G. (2006). Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103(4), 837–842.

  • Li, Q., Gao, K. Q., Vinther, J., Shawkey, M. D., Clarke, J. A., D’alba, L., & Prum, R. O. (2010). Plumage color patterns of an extinct dinosaur. science, 327(5971), 1369–1372.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu, Z., Ciais, P., Deng, Z., Lei, R., Davis, S. J., Feng, S., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2020). Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature communications, 11(1), 1–12.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu, Z., Deng, Z., Davis, S. J., Giron, C., & Ciais, P. (2022). Monitoring global carbon emissions in 2021. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 3(4), 217–219.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pachauri, R. K., Allen, M. R., Barros, V. R., Broome, J., Cramer, W., Christ, R., Church, J. A., Clarke, L., Dahe, Q., & Dasgupta, P. (2014). Climate change 2014: Synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Ipcc.

  • Parker, W. S. (2009). II—Confirmation and adequacy-for‐purpose in climate modelling. Aristotelian society supplementary volume (83 vol., pp. 233–249). Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 1.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parker, W. (2011). When Climate Models agree: The significance of robust model predictions. Philosophy of Science, 78(4), 579–600.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parker, W. (2020). Model evaluation: An adequacy-for-purpose view. Philosophy of Science, 87(3), 457–477. https://doi.org/10.1086/708691

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruddiman, W. F., Fuller, D. Q., Kutzbach, J. E., Tzedakis, P. C., Kaplan, J. O., Ellis, E. C., Vavrus, S. J., Roberts, C. N., Fyfe, R., & He, F. (2016). Late Holocene climate: Natural or anthropogenic? Reviews of Geophysics, 54(1), 93–118.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmidt, G. A. (2010). Enhancing the relevance of palaeoclimate model/data comparisons for assessments of future climate change. Journal of Quaternary Science, 25(1), 79–87.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmidt, G. A., Annan, J. D., Bartlein, P. J., Cook, B. I., Guilyardi, E., Hargreaves, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., LeGrande, A. N., Konecky, B., Lovejoy, S., Mann, M. E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Thompson, D., Timmermann, A., Tremblay, L. B., & Yiou, P. (2014). Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5. Climate Of The Past, 10, 221–250. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sluijs, A., Bowen, G. J., Brinkhuis, H., Lourens, L. J., & Thomas, E. (2007). In M. Williams, et al. (Eds.), Deep-time perspectives on Climate Change: Marrying the Signal from Computer Models and Biological Proxies (pp. 323–349). London: Geological Society of London.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Suarez, C. A., Edmonds, M., & Jones, A. P. (2019). Earth catastrophes and their impact on the Carbon Cycle. Elements: An International Magazine of Mineralogy Geochemistry and Petrology, 15(5), 301–306.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tierney, J. E., Poulsen, C. J., Montañez, I. P., Bhattacharya, T., Feng, R., Ford, H. L., & Zhang, Y. G. (2020). Past climates inform our future. Science, 370(6517), eaay3701.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner, D. (2007). Making prehistory: Historical science and the scientific realism debate. Cambridge University Press.

  • Watkins, A. (2023). “Is Contemporary Climate Change Really Unprecedented?”, Extinct: The Philosophy of Paleontology Blog: http://www.extinctblog.org/extinct/2023/3/24/is-contemporary-climate-change-really-unprecedented

  • Wilson, J. (2021). Two exploratory uses for general circulation models in Climate Science. Perspectives on Science, 29(4), 493–509.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, J., & Boudinot, F. G. (2022). Proxy measurement in paleoclimatology. European Journal for Philosophy of Science, 12(1), 1–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wing, S. L., Gingerich, P. D., Schmitz, B., & Thomas, E. (Eds.). (Geol. Soc. Am. Spec. Pap. 369, Boulder, Colorado, 2003). Causes and Consequences of Globally Warm Climates in the Early Paleocene

  • Winsberg, E. (2018). Philosophy and Climate Science. Cambridge Core: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108164290

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Wylie, A. (2017). How archaeological evidence bites back: Strategies for putting old data to work in new ways. Science Technology & Human Values, 42(2), 203–225.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zachos, J. C., Dickens, G. R., & Zeebe, R. E. (2008). An early cenozoic perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics. nature, 451(7176), 279–283.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

For helpful suggestions and discussion throughout the development of this paper, my appreciation goes to anonymous referees, F. Garrett Boudinot, Carol Cleland, Wendy Parker, Eric Winsberg, Brian Talbot, and Caleb Pickard.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Philosophy Department, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA

    Joseph Wilson

Authors
  1. Joseph Wilson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Joseph Wilson.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

I declare that I have no competing interests/conflicts of interest.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wilson, J. Paleoclimate analogues and the threshold problem. Synthese 202, 17 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-023-04202-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-023-04202-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation