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Effectiveness of non-selective evaluation test scores for predicting first-year performance in university career: a zero-inflated beta regression approach

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Abstract

The background preparation of students entering the university system is checked through evaluation tests in Italy. The test is non-selective in most degree programmes, as it does not preclude the possibility of enrolling in the student’s chosen program. However, the initial preparation and attitude of the students seem to be key issues in explaining their performance and predicting the performance outcome of their first-year in university. The evaluation test results are used to predict the students’ performance at the end of the first year by a zero inflated beta regression model. The analysis was conducted on the evaluation test carried out in September 2013 with students at the Department of Economics and Management, University of Pisa.

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Notes

  1. In this application, the maximum number of credit points during the first year is 57 and not 60 (as given in one year in most European countries), since 3 credits are dedicated to the examination test for evaluating computer skills, for which there are no grades points.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Statistical Observatory, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy

    Lucio Masserini

  2. Department of Human Sciences, European University of Rome, Rome, Italy

    Matilde Bini

  3. Department of Economics and Management, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy

    Monica Pratesi

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  1. Lucio Masserini
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  2. Matilde Bini
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  3. Monica Pratesi
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Correspondence to Lucio Masserini.

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Masserini, L., Bini, M. & Pratesi, M. Effectiveness of non-selective evaluation test scores for predicting first-year performance in university career: a zero-inflated beta regression approach. Qual Quant 51, 693–708 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-016-0433-z

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