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Identification of droughts over Saudi Arabia and global teleconnections

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Abstract

Drought is known as one of the most devastating climate extremes, which the world is facing in recent decades. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) lies in the water-stressed region, with high rainfall inter-annual variability, and is highly vulnerable to recurring droughts. In this study, six different drought indices, i.e., Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Deciles Index, Percentage Departure and two relatively new drought indices (aSPI and eRDI), based on effective rainfall are calculated, to determine the consensus drought years between 1985 and 2020. Based on these indices eight drought years (1990, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 and 2017) are identified, with 2007 as the extreme drought year, and the longest episode of drought (moderate to extreme intensity) was experienced during 2007–2012 (except 2010) over the region, where almost 70% of the KSA total area was under drought. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis is performed on the SPI drought index for studying the inter-annual variability of drought over KSA. A robust relationship is found between droughts and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), indicating some predictability of droughts over KSA. This study provides an overview for drought managers and disasters agencies to develop a contingency plan for climate-smart agriculture and water management toward sustainable development over the region.

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  1. National Centre for Meteorology (NCM), Jeddah, 21577, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    F. S. Syed, A. Zamreeq & A. Ghulam

  2. Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    S. Adnan

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  1. F. S. Syed
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All authors have made a substantial contribution to this research and have approved the final manuscript. F. S. Syed and S. Adnan contributed to conceptualization, design, writing, data analysis; A. Zamreeq contributed to concept and supervision. A. Ghulam contributed to data acquiring, writing and proofreading.

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Syed, F.S., Adnan, S., Zamreeq, A. et al. Identification of droughts over Saudi Arabia and global teleconnections. Nat Hazards 112, 2717–2737 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05285-z

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