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Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 °C

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Abstract

Historically, during periods of extreme drought, food security in the drylands of the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) is under severe risk due to agricultural collapse. The drought that started in 2012 continues to highlight the vulnerability of this region, and arid conditions have been detected during the last years mainly in the central semiarid region, covering almost 2% of the NEB. Climate projections show an increase in the area under water stress condition, covering 49% and 54% of the NEB region by 2700 and 2100, respectively, with a higher likelihood with warming above 4 °C. The projections of vegetative stress conditions derived from the empirical model for Vegetation Health Index (VHI) are consistent with projections from vegetation models, where semi-desert types typical of arid conditions would replace the current semiarid bushland vegetation (“caatinga”) by 2100. Due to the impacts of the 2012–2017 drought, public policies have been implemented to reduce social and economic vulnerability for small farmers but are not enough as poor population continues to be affected. In the long term, to make the semiarid less vulnerable to drought, strengthened integrated water resources management and a proactive drought policy are needed to restructure the economy. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal climate forecasting provides means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, leading to disaster risk reduction through early warning. Lastly, there is an urgent need for integrated assessments because the possibility that under permanent drought conditions with warming above 4 °C, arid conditions would prevail in NEB since 2060.

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Fig. 1

Adapted from Vieira et al. (2016)

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 1 under the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) Grant 573797/2008-0 and the São Paulo Research Support Foundation (FAPESP) Grant 2008/57719-9; and Phase 2 under CNPq Grant 465501/2014-1, and FAPESP Grants 2014/50848-9 and 2015/50122-0; the National Coordination for High Level Education and Training (CAPES) Grant 16/2014, and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaf Grant DFG-GRTK 1740/2.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, São José Dos Campos, São Paulo, 12247-016, Brazil

    Jose A. Marengo, Ana Paula M. A. Cunha, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Luz A. Cuartas, Karinne R. L. Deusdará & Regina C. S. Álvala

  2. Institute for Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, São Paulo, 05508-060, Brazil

    Carlos A. Nobre

  3. World Resources Institute-Brazil, São Paulo, São Paulo, 05422-030, Brazil

    Carlos A. Nobre

  4. Center for Strategic Studies, CGEE, Brasilia DF, Brasilia, 70308-200, Brazil

    Antonio R. Magalhaes

  5. Natural Resources Institute, Federal University of Itajuba, Itajuba, Minas Gerais, 37500-903, Brazil

    Roger R. Torres

  6. Earth System Science Center, National Institute for Space Research, São José Dos Campos, São Paulo, 12227-010, Brazil

    Lincoln M. Alves

  7. Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, 12230-000, Brazil

    Gilvan Sampaio & Felipe Alexandre

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Contributions

J.A.M and C.A.N. designed research; J.A.M., A.P.C., C.A.N, A.R.M., W.R.S, R.R.T., L.M.A., S.S.B., L.A.C, K.R.LD. and R.C.S.A., performed research; A.P.C, L.M.A., and G.R.N analyzed data; G. S, and F.A run the vegetation model for Northeast Brazil; J.A.M., A.P.C, A.R.M. and C.A.N wrote the paper.

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Marengo, J.A., Cunha, A.P.M.A., Nobre, C.A. et al. Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 °C. Nat Hazards 103, 2589–2611 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04097-3

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