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Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective

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Abstract

In order to estimate the possible parameters of future extreme extratropical cyclones (ETCs), a pseudo-climate modelling study of three historical storms originating from the Atlantic Ocean and one from the Black Sea area was performed using multi-model approach considering IPCC emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the twenty-first century. Applying Weather Research and Forecasting atmosphere model (WRF), Finite Volume Community Ocean model (FVCOM-SWAVE) and the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model, the changes in initial conditions in atmospheric air temperature, sea surface temperature and relative humidity were considered on the basis of 14 CMIP5 general circulation models ensemble. According to the future scenario results, no notable changes are expected in minimum atmospheric pressure within the ETCs of the future; however, the low pressure area was slightly larger and the strong wind zone was extending further south with greater peak wind speeds in the future (year 2081–2100) simulations. This, in turn, yielded a small surge height increase at Pärnu under RCP4.5 scenario; however, under RCP8.5 scenario the surge increase was up to 22–59 cm. Westerly approaching ETCs will bring more precipitation to the Baltic Sea area in the (warmer) future. In case of a southerly cyclone, the results were more mixed. An insignificant increase in wave heights during extreme storm conditions occurred. Although RCP8.5 future scenario is usually considered as unrealistic, the results of this study still suggest that the extreme ETCs may become more dangerous in the future, although probably not as certainly as tropical cyclones.

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Acknowledgements

The present work was performed as a part of activities of Research Institute of Sustainable Future Society, Waseda Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University. The study was financially supported by the Estonian Research Council Grant PUT1439, by Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity start-up (No. 17H06760) from Japan Society for the Promotion of Science and by Penta-Ocean Construction Co. Ltd. We also acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups (listed in Table 2) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8555, Japan

    Martin Mäll & Tomoya Shibayama

  2. Civil Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, Niigata University, 8050, Ninocho, Nishi-ku , Niigata-shi, Niigata, 950-2181, Japan

    Ryota Nakamura

  3. Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, 12618, Tallinn, Estonia

    Ülo Suursaar

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  1. Martin Mäll
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Mäll, M., Nakamura, R., Suursaar, Ü. et al. Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective. Nat Hazards 102, 67–99 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03911-2

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