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Street-scale storm surge load impact assessment using fine-resolution numerical modelling: a case study from Nemuro, Japan

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Abstract

Due to gradual sea level rise and changes in the climate system, coastal vulnerability to storm surge hazards is expected to increase in some areas. Studies regarding the effect of storm surge inundation on buildings and human lives, especially when it comes to relatively low-threat level events, have been few, however. In this research, storm surge load impact around coastal residential areas was quantitatively assessed, through fine-resolution numerical modelling. Meso- and street-scale simulation results for a storm surge event in Nemuro, Japan, were comprehensively validated against observations and field measurements, and the simulation results showed good accuracy for sea level, significant wave height and inundation area. A fine-resolution, street-scale coastal flood simulation was carried out with individual and grouped buildings, created with a building block model, and the results showed the significant role of buildings by realistically capturing inundation dynamics. Hydrodynamic results showed that coastal flood impact on buildings was insignificant (consistent with surveys). Lastly, the potential flood impact on people in the streets was investigated, using five human instability equations, where the most pessimistic results showed average values between 0.0 and 0.2 (max 0.6–0.7), and slightly below 0.4 for children and the elderly, respectively. These values indicated that threat levels during the Nemuro storm event were low, which corresponded with observations (no fatalities). This study framework could be applied wherever an accurate local storm surge threat estimate was required.

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  • 26 September 2019

    To: Street-scale storm.

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Acknowledgements

This study was financially supported by: the Strategic Young Researcher fund from Toyohashi University of Technology; a Grant-in-Aid for a Research Activity Start-up (No. 17H06760) and for Early-Career Scientists (No. 19K15098), from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Research Institute of Sustainable Future Society, Waseda University; and a Strategic Research Foundation Grant-aided Project for Private Universities, from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (Waseda University: No. S1311028). The authors express an appreciation to officers in the Nemuro City Government and the Hokkaido Development Bureau, for providing data on sea levels and coastal levee heights. Finally, we would like to thank Editage (www.editage.com) for English language editing.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, Niigata University, 8050 Ninocho, Ikarashi, Nishi-ku, Niigata-shi, Niigata, 950-2181, Japan

    Ryota Nakamura

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Creative Science and Engineering, Waseda University, 3-4-1, Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8555, Japan

    Martin Mäll

  3. Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University, 3-4-1, Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8555, Japan

    Tomoya Shibayama

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  1. Ryota Nakamura
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Correspondence to Ryota Nakamura.

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Nakamura, R., Mäll, M. & Shibayama, T. Street-scale storm surge load impact assessment using fine-resolution numerical modelling: a case study from Nemuro, Japan. Nat Hazards 99, 391–422 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03746-6

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