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A three-dimensional numerical simulation approach to assess typhoon hazards in China coastal regions

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Abstract

The paper introduces a three-dimensional numerical technique to assess typhoon hazards in China coastal regions based on a series of full-set numerical meteorology simulations. The boundary and initial conditions of the simulations are provided by adding pseudorandom fluctuations, which represent the localized, short-term meteorological variations, to synoptic fields, which show the large-scale, long-term meteorological patterns. A series of bogus typhoons are inserted into the initial field to provide the “seeds” from which the artificial typhoons could grow. The initial positions and intensities of the bogus typhoons are drawn from the random variables whose statistics agree with those derived from historical typhoon track data. In the present study, 1503 full-set meteorology simulations of artificial typhoons are conducted. The extreme wind speeds versus return periods calculated from the simulation results are compared to not only the specifications in the load code, but also the results from the previous studies. It is found that the extreme wind speeds in the Pearl-River Delta are, contradicting to the common expectation, higher than at the mainland side of the Taiwan Strait, which imply that the typhoons hitting Guangdong are, on average, more intense than those influencing Fujian. Given the possibility to improve the three-dimensional meteorology model in the future, the simulation technique proposed in the present study provides a novel direction to assess the meteorological hazards, including threads posted by typhoons.

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Notes

  1. Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China, 2016: http://www.mca.gov.cn/article/yw/jzjz/zqkb/zqhz/201609/20160900001798.shtml.

  2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts: http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-daily/levtype=sfc/.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to express their gratitude toward following organizations for financially supporting the work described in the present paper, which includes National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51608302, 51579227).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Ocean Science and Technology, Graduate School at Shenzhen, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China

    Y. Liu, D. Chen, S. Li & Q. Zhang

  2. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

    Y. Liu & D. Chen

  3. Hong Kong Observatory, 134A Nathan Road, Kowloon, Hong Kong

    P. W. Chan

  4. Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

    Q. Zhang

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  1. Y. Liu
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  2. D. Chen
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  3. S. Li
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  4. P. W. Chan
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  5. Q. Zhang
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Correspondence to S. Li.

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Liu, Y., Chen, D., Li, S. et al. A three-dimensional numerical simulation approach to assess typhoon hazards in China coastal regions. Nat Hazards 96, 809–835 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03570-y

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