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Mapping inundation probability due to increasing sea level rise along El Puerto de Santa María (SW Spain)

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Abstract

Global sea levels have risen through the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This rise will almost certainly continue and probably accelerate during the rest of the twenty-first century, albeit there is strong disagreement about the range of future sea level rise due to uncertainties regarding scenarios and emission of greenhouse gasses. Although the impacts of sea level rise are diverse, inundation during high tides is one of the most obvious and immediate consequences. A probabilistic methodology for mapping the inundation hazard because of sea level rise has been applied to the coast of El Puerto de Santa María in the province of Cádiz in southwest Spain. This methodology involves a step forward since represents the full range of probabilities, associated with each scenario of sea level rise considered, and thus offers a more realistic view of the probability of inundation in each area. Results show large differences in the spatial distribution of probable inundation in urban areas and wetlands leading to different consequences for management actions.

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Acknowledgements

Funding was provided by Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Grant No. CSO2010-15807).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Geografía Física y A.G.R., Universidad de Sevilla, María de Padilla, s/n, Seville, 41004, Spain

    Pablo Fraile-Jurado, José I. Álvarez-Francoso, Emilia Guisado-Pintado & José Ojeda-Zújar

  2. Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos (CESIMAR), CENPAT, CONICET, Blvd. Brown 2915, U9120ACD, Puerto Madryn, Chubut, Argentina

    Noela Sánchez-Carnero

  3. Department of Earth and Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL, 33199, USA

    Stephen P. Leatherman

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  1. Pablo Fraile-Jurado
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Correspondence to Pablo Fraile-Jurado.

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Fraile-Jurado, P., Álvarez-Francoso, J.I., Guisado-Pintado, E. et al. Mapping inundation probability due to increasing sea level rise along El Puerto de Santa María (SW Spain). Nat Hazards 87, 581–598 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2782-x

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