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Thermal hazards zonation and permafrost change over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

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Abstract

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is the largest permafrost region at low latitude in the world. Climate warming may lead to permafrost temperature rise, ground ice thawing and permafrost degradation, thus inducing thermal hazards. In this paper, the ARCGIS method is used to calculate the changes of ground ice content and active layer thickness under different climate scenarios on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, in the coming decades, thus providing the basis for hazards zonation. The method proposed by Nelson in 2002 was used for hazards zonation after revision, which was based on the changes of active layer thickness and ground ice content. The study shows that permafrost exhibits different degrees of degradation in the different climate scenarios. The thawing of ground ice and the change from low-temperature to high-temperature permafrost were the main permafrost degradation modes. This process, accompanied with thinning permafrost, increases the active layer thickness and the northward movement of the permafrost southern boundary. By 2099, the permafrost area decreases by 46.2, 16.01 and 8.5% under scenarios A2, A1B and B1, respectively. The greatest danger zones are located mainly to the south of the West Kunlun Mountains, the middle of the Qingnan Valley, the southern piedmont of the Gangdise and Nyainqentanglha Mountains and some regions in the southern piedmont of the Himalayas. The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau permafrost region is in the low-risk category. Climate warming exacerbates the development of thermal hazards. In 2099, the permafrost region is mainly in the middle-risk category, and only a small portion is in the low-risk category.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the Environmental and Ecological Science Data Center for West China, National Natural Science Foundation of China, which provided the data sets “1:100,000 soil map of The People’s Republic of China” and “1:1,000,000 vegetation map of People’s Republic of China.” This research is supported in part by the National Basic Research Program (2010CB951402), the Chinese Academy of Sciences Knowledge Innovation Key Project (KZCX2-YW-Q03-08), and the Outstanding Youth Foundation Project, Natural Science Foundation of China (40625004) to Qingbai Wu.

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  1. State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Science, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China

    Zhongqiong Zhang & Qingbai Wu

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  1. Zhongqiong Zhang
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Correspondence to Qingbai Wu.

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Zhang, Z., Wu, Q. Thermal hazards zonation and permafrost change over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Nat Hazards 61, 403–423 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9923-4

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