Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Landscape Ecology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Land-use/cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. A common approach to analyse and simulate LUCC as the result of individual decisions is agent-based modelling (ABM). However, ABM is often applied to simulate processes at local scales, while its application in regional studies is limited. This paper describes first a conceptual framework for ABM to analyse and explore regional LUCC processes. Second, the conceptual framework is represented by combining different concepts including agent typologies, farm trajectories and probabilistic decision-making processes. Finally, the framework is illustrated through a case study in the Netherlands, where processes of farm cessation, farm expansion and farm diversification are shaping the structure of the landscape. The framework is a generic, straightforward approach to analyse and explore regional LUCC with an explicit link to empirical approaches for parameterization of ABM.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aarts N, van Woerkum CCMJ (eds) (2000) Communication in nature management policy making. European Centre for Nature Conservation, Tilburg

    Google Scholar 

  • Acosta-Michlik L, Espaldon V (2008) Assessing vulnerability of selected farming communities in the Philippines based on a behavioural model of agent’s adaptation to global environmental change. Glob Environ Change 18:554–563

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beratan KK (2007) A cognition-based view of decision processes in complex social–ecological systems. Ecol Soc 12(1):27

    Google Scholar 

  • Batty M, Torrens PM (2001) Modeling complexity: the limits to prediction. CASA, UCL, London, p 36

    Google Scholar 

  • Benenson I, Torrens PM (2004) Geosimulation: automata-based modeling of urban phenomena. Wiley, West Sussex

    Google Scholar 

  • Berger T, Schreinemachers P (2006) Creating agents and landscapes for multiagent systems from random samples. Ecol Soc 11(2):19

    Google Scholar 

  • Bonabeau E (2002) Agent-based modeling: methods and techniques for simulating human systems. PNAS 99:7280–7287

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Bousquet F, Le Page C (2004) Multi-agent simulations and ecosystem management: a review. Ecol Model 176:313–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bradshaw GA, Borchers JG (2000) Uncertainty as information: narrowing the science-policy gap. Conserv Ecol 4:7

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown DG, Page SE, Riolo R, Zellner M, Rand W (2005) Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 19:153–174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Busck AG (2002) Farmers’ landscape decisions: relationships between farmers’ values and landscape practices. Sociologia Ruralis 42:233–249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clarke KC, Hoppen S, Gaydos L (1997) A self-modifying cellular automaton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area. Environ Plan B 24:247–261

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Couclelis H (2002) Why I no longer work with agents. In: Parker DC, Berger T, Manson SM (eds) Proceedings of the special workshop on agent-based models of land-use/land-cover change, Santa Barbara, 2001

  • Crooks A, Castle C, Batty M (2008) Key challenges in agent-based modelling for geo-spatial simulation. Comput Environ Urban Syst 32:417–430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Groot WT (1992) Environmental science theory: concepts and methods in a one-world, problem-oriented paradigm. Elsevier, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • de Groot R (2006) Function-analysis and valuation as a tool to assess land use conflicts in planning for sustainable, multi-functional landscapes. Landsc Urban Plan 75:175–186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Foley JA, DeFries R, Asner GP, Barford C, Bonan G, Carpenter SR, Chapin FS, Coe MT, Daily GC, Gibbs HK, Helkowski JH, Holloway T, Howard EA, Kucharik CJ, Monfreda C, Patz JA, Prentice IC, Ramankutty N, Snyder PK (2005) Global consequences of land use. Science 309:570–574

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Gasson R (1973) Goals and values of farmers. J Agric Econ 24:521–542

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gorton M, Douarin E, Davidova S, Latruffe L (2008) Attitudes to agricultural policy and farming futures in the context of the 2003 CAP reform: a comparison of farmers in selected established and new Member States. J Rural Stud 24:322–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grimm V, Berger U, Bastiansen F, Eliassen S, Ginot V, Giske J, Goss-Custard J, Grand T, Heinz SK, Huse G (2006) A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models. Ecol Model 198:115–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grube JW, Mayton DM, Ball-Rokeach SJ (1994) Inducing change in values, attitudes, and behaviors: belief system theory and the method of value self-confrontation. J Soc Issues 50:153–173

    Google Scholar 

  • Huigen MGA (2004) First principles of the MameLuke multi-actor modelling framework for land use change, illustrated with a Philippine case study. J Environ Manag 72:5–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ilbery BW (1978) Agricultural decision-making: a behavioural perspective. Prog Hum Geogr 2:448–466

    Google Scholar 

  • Janssen MA, Ostrom E (2006) Empirically based, agent-based models. Ecol Soc 11:37

    Google Scholar 

  • Jollivet M (1965) D’une méthode typologique pour l’étude des sociétés rurales. Revue Française de Sociologie 6:33–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jongeneel R, Polman NN, Slangen L (2005) Multifunctional alternatives for agriculture in changing landscapes. In: Conference multifunctionality of landscapes: analysis, evaluation and decision support, Justus-Liebig University, Germany, 18–19 May 2005

  • Jongeneel RA, Polman NBP, Slangen LHG (2008) Why are Dutch farmers going multifunctional? Land Use Policy 25:81–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Köbrich C, Rehman T, Khan M (2003) Typification of farming systems for constructing representative farm models: two illustrations of the application of multi-variate analyses in Chile and Pakistan. Agric Syst 76:141–157

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lambin EF, Geist HJ (2003) Regional differences in tropical deforestation. Environment 45:22–36

    Google Scholar 

  • Lambin EF, Turner BL, Geist HJ, Agbola SB, Angelsen A, Bruce JW, Coomes OT, Dirzo R, Fischer G, Folke C (2001) The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths. Global Environ Change 11:261–269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Le QB (2005) Multi-agent system for simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a theoretical framework and its first application for an upland watershed in the Central Coast of Vietnam29. Cuvillier Verlag Göttingen, Göttingen, p 283

    Google Scholar 

  • Le QB, Park SJ, Vlek PLG, Cremers AB (2008) Land-use dynamic simulator (LUDAS): a multi-agent system model for simulating spatio-temporal dynamics of coupled human-landscape system. I. Structure and theoretical specification. Ecol Informatics 3:135–153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ligtenberg A, Wachowicz M, Bregt AK, Beulens A, Kettenis DL (2004) A design and application of a multi-agent system for simulation of multi-actor spatial planning. J Environ Manag 72:43–55

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Dietz T, Carpenter SR, Folke C, Alberti M, Redman CL, Schneider SH, Ostrom E, Pell AN, Lubchenco J, Taylor WW, Ouyang Z, Deadman P, Kratz T, Provencher W (2007) Coupled human and natural systems. Ambio 36:639–649

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Matthews R, Gilbert N, Roach A, Polhill J, Gotts N (2007) Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications. Landscape Ecol 22:1447–1459

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKinney JC (1950) The role of constructive typology in scientific sociological analysis. Soc Forces 28:235–240

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Messina JP, Evans TP, Manson SM, Shortridge AM, Deadman PJ, Verburg PH (2008) Complex systems models and the management of error and uncertainty. J Land Use Sci 3:11–25

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Sullivan D, Manson SM, Messina JP, Crawford TW (2006) Space, place, and complexity science. Environ Plan A 38:611–617

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Overmars KP, Verburg PH, Veldkamp T (2007) Comparison of a deductive and an inductive approach to specify land suitability in a spatially explicit land use model. Land Use Policy 24:584–599

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parker DC, Manson SM, Janssen MA, Hoffmann MJ, Deadman P (2003) Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 93:314–337

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parker DC, Brown D, Polhill J, Deadman PJ, Manson SM (2008) Illustrating a new ‘conceptual design pattern’ for agent-based models of land use via five case studies—the Mr. Potatohead framework. In: López Paredes A, Hernández Iglesias C (eds) Agent-based modelling in natural resource management. Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, pp 23–51

    Google Scholar 

  • Petersen SO, Sommer SG, Béline F, Burton C, Dach J, Dourmad JY, Leip A, Misselbrook T, Nicholson F, Poulsen HD, Provolo G, Sørensen P, Vinnerås B, Weiske A, Bernal MP, Böhm R, Juhász C, Mihelic R (2007) Recycling of livestock manure in a whole-farm perspective. Livest Sci 112:180–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pijanowski BC, Brown DG, Shellito BA, Manik GA (2002) Using neural networks and GIS to forecast land use changes: a land transformation model. Comput Environ Urban Syst 26:553–575

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pontius R, Boersma W, Castella J-C, Clarke K, de Nijs T, Dietzel C, Duan Z, Fotsing E, Goldstein N, Kok K, Koomen E, Lippitt C, McConnell W, Mohd Sood A, Pijanowski B, Pithadia S, Sweeney S, Trung T, Veldkamp A, Verburg P (2008) Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change. Ann Reg Sci 42:11–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rindfuss RR, Walsh SJ, Turner BL II, Fox J, Mishra V (2004) Developing a science of land change: challenges and methodological issues. PNAS 101:13976–13981

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Rindfuss RR, Entwisle B, Walsh SJ, An L, Badenoch N, Brown DG, Deadman P, Evans TP, Fox J, Geoghegan J, Gutmann M, Kelly M, Linderman M, Liu J, Malanson GP, Mena CF, Messina JP, Moran EF, Parker DC, Parton W, Prasartkul P, Robinson DT, Sawangdee Y, Vanwey LK, Verburg PH (2008) Land use change: complexity and comparisons. J Land Use Sci 3:1–10

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Robinson DT, Brown DG, Parker DC, Schreinemachers P, Janssen MA, Huigen M, Wittmer H, Gotts N, Promburom P, Irwin E, Berger T, Gatzweiler F, Barnaud C (2007) Comparison of empirical methods for building agent-based models in land use science. J Land Use Sci 2:31–55

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rokeach M (1968) A theory of organization and change within value-attitude systems. J Soc Issues 24:13–33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Santner TJ, Williams BJ, Notz WI (2003) The design and analysis of computer experiments. Springer, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  • Sawyer RK (2003) Artificial societies: multiagent systems and the micro-macro link in sociological theory. Sociol Methods Res 31:325–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siebert R, Toogood M, Knierim A (2006) Factors affecting European farmers’ participation in biodiversity policies. Sociologia Ruralis 46:318–340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simon HA (1955) A behavioral model of rational choice. Q J Econ 69:99–118

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stoate C, Boatman ND, Borralho RJ, Carvalho CR, de Snoo GR, Eden P (2001) Ecological impacts of arable intensification in Europe. J Environ Manag 63:337–365

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Thenail C, Baudry J (2004) Variation of farm spatial land use pattern according to the structure of the hedgerow network (bocage) landscape: a case study in northeast Brittany. Agric Ecosyst Environ 101:53–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner BL II, Lambin EF, Reenberg A (2007) Land change science special feature: the emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability. Proc Natl Acad Sci 104:20666–20671

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Valbuena D, Verburg PH, Bregt AK (2008) A method to define a typology for agent-based analysis in regional land-use research. Agric Ecosyst Environ 128:27–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg PH (2006) Simulating feedbacks in land use and land cover change models. Landscape Ecol 21:1171–1183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vitousek PM, Mooney HA, Lubchenco J, Melillo JM (1997) Human domination of Earth’s ecosystems. Science 277:494–499

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Willemen L, Verburg PH, Hein L, van Mensvoort MEF (2008) Spatial characterization of landscape functions. Landsc Urban Plan 88:34–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willock J, Deary IJ, Edwards-Jones G, Gibson GJ, McGregor MJ, Sutherland A, Dent JB, Morgan O, Grieve R (1999) The role of attitudes and objectives in farmer decision making: business and environmentally-oriented behaviour in Scotland. J Agric Econ 50:286–303

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson GA (2007) Multifunctional agriculture: a transition theory perspective. Cromwell, Trowbridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Wooldridge M, Jennings NR (1995) Intelligent agents: theory and practice. Knowledge Eng Rev 10:115–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zellner ML (2008) Embracing complexity and uncertainty: the potential of agent-based modeling for environmental planning and policy. Plan Theory Practice 9:437–457

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Sytze de Bruin and Erez Hatna for their suggestions on an early draft of this paper. We also wish to thank two anonymous reviewers for their useful comments to improve this paper. Many thanks to Nico Polman, Roel Jongeneel, Tom Kuhlman, the LEI and the Province of Gelderland for allowing us the use of their data. This research is endorsed to the GLP project.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Diego Valbuena, Peter H. Verburg, Arnold K. Bregt & Arend Ligtenberg

Authors
  1. Diego Valbuena
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Peter H. Verburg
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Arnold K. Bregt
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Arend Ligtenberg
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Diego Valbuena.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Valbuena, D., Verburg, P.H., Bregt, A.K. et al. An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale. Landscape Ecol 25, 185–199 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-009-9380-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-009-9380-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation