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Seismic hazard of the Northern Apennines based on 3D seismic sources

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Abstract

Seismic hazard has been computed for the Northern Apennines in northern Italy based on a new seismogenic zonation. This zonation considers inclined (dipping) planes as seismogenic sources, defined on the basis of all the seismotectonic information available so far. Although these geometries are extremely rough because they simplify with a few inclined elements the totality of faults constituting a source, this model mimics the tectonic style better than that based on horizontal planes. Nevertheless, for a comparison between the new ground motions obtained and those available in the literature, the plane version of the zonation has been developed, where horizontal areas (the standard seismogenic zones), representing the surficial projection of the inclined planes, are used as seismogenic sources.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Servizio Geologico, Sismico e dei Suoli, Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy

    L. Martelli

  2. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Milano, c/o OGS, Trieste, Italy

    M. Santulin

  3. Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università degli Studi di Firenze, Florence, Italy

    F. Sani

  4. Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale, Trieste, Italy

    A. Tamaro, A. Rebez & D. Slejko

  5. Istituto di Geoscienze e Georisorse, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Florence, Italy

    M. Bonini & G. Corti

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  1. L. Martelli
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  3. F. Sani
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  4. A. Tamaro
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  7. G. Corti
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  8. D. Slejko
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to D. Slejko.

Appendix. Description of the seismogenic zones

Appendix. Description of the seismogenic zones

  1. 1

    Liguria: This zone corresponds to zone 911 of the ZS9, but trimmed in the northern sector (which was included in the previous zone); it maintains the main seismotectonic features of zone 911 of ZS9 (Meletti et al. 2008), with dominant strike-slip faulting along transverse structures and maximum observed MW≈5.7. The seismogenic sources in this zone have been reproduced by assuming four planes trending NE-SW and dipping at ∼90°, with strike-slip kinematics.

  2. 2

    Taro-Enza: The zone is characterised by important NE-SW transverse strike-slip structures that cross the Apennines chain, connecting the Ligurian Sea to the Po Plain (Figs. 1 and 2). However, the P axis is roughly N-S oriented according to the local slip vector. Hypocentral depths may be high (>30 km) and the historical maximum MW is ≈5.5. This zone corresponds to the western part of zones 913, 915 and 916 of ZS9. This zone has been modelled by considering strike-slip faulting on two planes trending NE-SW and dipping at ∼90°.

  3. 3

    Ferrara Folds: In this zone, we have included the entire external front of the Ferrara folds with similar tectonic features of the 912 zone of ZS904: compressive kinematics with P axes oriented N-S along 45° south-dipping thrust faults. Hypocentral depths range between 5 and 15 km, and the maximum MW is 6.1, registered during the May 2012 seismic sequence. This zone is part of the ZS9 912 zone, which has been subdivided, creating a new zone (5 in Fig. 2) that is characterised by minor density and intensity of earthquakes and scarce evidence of active structures in the field. The seismogenic sources in this area have been modelled by considering four planes, dipping to the S-SSW at ∼45° with thrust-fault kinematics.

  4. 4

    Adriatic Folds: This zone corresponds in the ZS9 to zone 917 with dominant active thrusts (Meletti et al. 2008). Geomorphologic evidence suggests the presence of active growing anticlines along the Adriatic coast (Vannoli et al. 2004). Historical maximum magnitude is MW≈6.1. This area has been modelled by assuming thrust faulting on two planes dipping to the S-SSW at ∼30°.

  5. 5

    Nonantola-Budrio: The zone is located between zone 3 and the Pede-Apennine margin. It is characterised by low seismicity and scarce evidence of active structures. It corresponds to the southern 912 zone of ZS9. The expected earthquakes should have compressive kinematics along low-angle south-dipping planes that are likely coincident with the flats of the thrusts of zone 3. Depth is expected between 10 and 35 km, with P axes roughly N-S oriented. Historical maximum magnitude is MW≈5.5. This zone has been modelled by assuming a single plane dipping to the SW at ∼20° with thrust kinematics.

  6. 6

    Emilia Margin: This zone corresponds to the central sector of zone 913 of ZS9 and it is characterised by numerous geologic evidence of recent and active tectonics mainly related to the Pede-Apennine thrust. Moderate to strong earthquakes show compressive kinematics with P axes trending N-S and associated to south, 45°–60° dipping thrust fault. Hypocentral depths range between 10 and 30 km. Historical magnitude is ≈6. The deformation in this zone has been modelled by assuming a single S-dipping plane with inclination of ∼45°–60° and thrust faulting.

  7. 7

    Emilia Apennines: This zone shows minor-intensity earthquakes but with two different kinematics: compressive with hypocentral depth of 15–35 km, with P axes trending N-S, and shallower (5–15 km) extensional events. The maximum historical magnitude is ≈5.5. Zone 7 corresponds to the southern part of zone 913 of ZS9. The seismogenic sources in this area have been modelled by considering normal faulting events on four planes, dipping to the N at ∼60°.

  8. 8

    Garfagnana: This zone includes the Lunigiana and Garfagnana basins (Fig. 1) and shows frequent and strong earthquakes (M>6). It also includes part of the Apennines divide area. Main active faults dip either to the SW or to the NE and show extensional kinematics. Transtensional, right-lateral transverse structures trending NE-SW to NNE-SSW are also present. Hypocentral depths are mainly concentrated in the range between 5 and 15 km, with a maximum historical magnitude of ≈6.5 associated with the Garfagnana 1920 event. Zone 8 coincides with the western part of zone 915 of ZS9. This zone has been modelled by assuming five NW-SE-trending planes with normal fault kinematics. Three planes dip to the SW, whereas 2 planes dip to the NE; the dip of all these planes is ∼65°.

  9. 9

    NW Coastal Sector: This zone is cut along the Tyrrhenian coast and shows low intensity and rare seismic activity. Quaternary, potentially active faults are normal and mainly dip to the SW. Hypocentral depths range between 5 and 15 km and a maximum historical MW≈5.4 has been recorded in the area. This zone includes the coastal sectors of 916 zone of ZS9. The seismogenic sources in this area have been modelled by assuming normal faulting events on four planes, dipping to the SW at ∼65°.

  10. 10

    Reno-Setta: This zone extends from the divide to the Apennine margin in the Bologna area (Figs. 1 and 2). It has a lower frequency and intensity of seismic events with hypocentral depth ranging between 5 and 35 km. The active or potentially active structures are generally transverse to the chain; along the Apennine margin, active compressive structures strongly dipping (45°–60°) to the south, may also occur. Associated to the registered events is a P axis trending N-S, with hypocentral depth of between 15 and 35 km. Historical magnitude is MW≈5.5. Zone 10 corresponds to the eastern sector of zone 913 of ZS9. This zone has been modelled by assuming strike-slip deformation on two subvertical (dip ∼90°) planes trending NNE-SWW.

  11. 11

    Pistoia-Pisa: This transverse zone includes the Pisa plain, the southern part of Garfagnana basin and the western sector of the Florence basin up to the Apennines divide. Active or potentially active structures trend NE-SW, but they usually do not show clear kinematics. Minor NW-SE-trending SW-dipping normal faults are also present. Hypocentral depths range between 5 and 15 km, and the historical maximum magnitude is MW≈5.7. Zone 11 coincides with central parts of 915 and 916 and the northern sector of 921 of the ZS9 zones. This zone has been modelled by assuming two subvertical (dip ∼90°) planes trending NE-SW with strike-slip kinematics.

  12. 12

    Romagna Margin: This zone includes another sector of the Apennines margin in an area characterised by frequent and strong earthquakes associated with active, south dipping (30–45°) thrust faults with sub-horizontal ≈N-S-trending P axes. Hypocentral depth usually ranges between 10 and 25 km, but deeper events (up to 35 km) are also present. The historical maximum magnitude is MW≈6.1. Zone 12 approximately corresponds to the northern portion of the 914 zone. Deformation in this area has been modelled with a single plane source dipping to the S at ∼30–45° and thrust faulting.

  13. 13

    Romagna Apennines: This zone shows frequent and high-intensity earthquakes with hypocentral depths of 15 and 20 km generally associated to south-dipping thrust faults. Rare transcurrent kinematics have also been registered. Shallower (<10 km) events have been registered associated to NW-SE-striking, NE-dipping normal faults. The historical maximum magnitude is MW≈6. Zone 13 approximately corresponds to the southern portion of the 914 zone. Calculations in this zone have been performed by considering three NE-dipping planes, with inclination of ∼65° and normal fault displacement.

  14. 14

    Mugello: This zone shows frequent and high-intensity seismic events. It largely corresponds to the Mugello basin area, where well-developed active and potentially active faults have been documented. Most of these structures show extensional kinematics. They are generally NW-SE striking, and dip either to the SW or to the NE. At the NW and SE ends of the Mugello basin, tranverse NE-SW-trending structures are present, although their kinematics are not yet well defined. Hypocentral depths of the registered events are usually in the 5–15 km range, and the historical maximum magnitude is MW≈6.3, associated with a 1919 earthquake. Zone 14 corresponds to the eastern part of 915 zone of the ZS9. This zone has been modelled by assuming normal faulting on four planes, two dipping to SSW and two dipping to the NNE at ∼65°.

  15. 15

    Florence-Volterra: This wide zone includes the central northern area of Tuscany up to the Florence basin, which is characterised by NW-SE-trending and SW-dipping active normal faults. Subordinately NE-SW-trending (transverse) transcurrent faults are also present with dextral and sinistral kinematics. Hypocentral depths are in the range of 5 to 15 km, and the historical maximum magnitude is M≈5.4 and has been associated with an 1895 earthquake whose epicentre was located 10 km south of Florence. This zone includes the central-eastern sector of the 916 zone and part of the northern area of zone 921 of the ZS9. Calculations in this zone have been performed by considering ten planes, dipping to the SW at ∼65° and normal fault displacement.

  16. 16

    Val di Fine: This small zone encompasses a sector of the Tuscan coast where it is likely that the strong earthquake of August 14, 1846, for which a magnitude of MW≈5.91 has been inferred, was located. The zone is included in the northern sector of zone 921 of the ZS9. The active structures responsible for this event were the NNW-SSE- striking normal faults delimiting the eastern side of the Fine Basin (Figs. 1 and 2). Hypocentral depths can likely be located between 5 and 15 km. Deformation in this area has been modelled with four planes, dipping to the WSW at ∼65° and characterised by normal faulting.

  17. 17

    Savio-Marecchia: This area is located along the external margin of the chain and reaches the main divide. It is characterised by transverse structures with strike-slip kinematics as well as by thrust faults with N-S-oriented P axes, more frequently along the Apennine margin. Hypocentral depths are between 5 and 15 km for the transversal structures, 15 and 25 km along the southern-dipping thrust faults. Historical maximum magnitude is MW≈6.0. This zone includes the south-eastern sectors of 914 and 915 zones, and the north-western parts of the 918 and 919 zones of the ZS9. This zone has been modelled by assuming strike-slip faulting on two planes, trending NNE-SSW and dipping at ∼90°.

  18. 18

    Casentino-Valdarno-Siena: This is a wide transverse zone running between central Tuscany (Siena basin) up to the Apennines divide (Casentino basin). Main active and potentially active structures trend NE-SW, likely with a dextral transtensional component. Normal faults oriented NW-SE oriented and dipping SW are also present. Hypocentral depths have been located between 5 and 15 km, and the maximum historical magnitude is MW≈5.8. This zone corresponds to the external sectors of 915 and 916 in the ZS9, to the north-western sector of zone 920 and to the central sector of zone 921. This zone has been modelled by assuming strike-slip deformation on two subvertical (dip ∼90°) planes trending NE-SW.

  19. 19

    Tusco-Latium Littoral: This zone, not previously included in the ZS9, encompasses a sector of the hinterland of Tuscany close to the Tyrrhenian coast (Figs. 1 and 2). A few potentially active normal faults are oriented NW-SE and associated with transversal NE-SW-trending strike-slip and normal faults. Part of the seismicity of the area is related to the Larderello Geothermal field (Fig. 1). Hypocentral depths are between 5 and 15 km, and the maximum historical magnitude is MW≈5.1. Deformation in this area has been modelled with four planes, dipping to the SW at ∼60° and characterised by normal faulting.

  20. 20

    Marche North: This zone coincides with zone 918 of the ZS9, but modified in its north-western part and cut in half to allow for zone 24 (see below). This zone is affected by many seismic events, including of high intensite. Active structures are essentially SW-dipping thrust faults. Hypocentral depths have been located at between 10 and 35 km, and the maximum historical magnitude is MW≈6.4. Calculations in this zone have been performed by using a single plane source dipping to the SW at 30° and thrust faulting.

  21. 21

    Umbria: This zone is characterised by frequent and high-intensity seismicity. The main active structures are W- and SW-dipping normal faults. In the southern sector NNE-SSW-trending dextral transtensional faults have been detected. Hypocentral depths are between 5 and 15 km, and the maximum historical magnitude is MW≈6.7. This zone corresponds to ZS9 919, although slightly modified in the north-western and south-eastern limits. This zone has been modelled by assuming normal faulting on nine planes, five of which dip to the SW and four to the ENE; the inclination is assumed at ∼65°.

  22. 22

    Trasimeno: This zone corresponds partially to the northern sector of zone 920 of ZS9. Few seismic events, of low to medium intensity, occur in this area. Evidence of active or potentially active structures has not been found in the field. The maximum historical magnitude is MW≈5.0. Deformation in this area has been modelled with six planes, dipping to the WSW at ∼65° and characterised by normal faulting.

  23. 23

    Amiata-Bolsena: This zone includes the Amiata Volcano and the northern part of the Roman magmatic province, including Lake Bolsena (Figs. 1 and 2). It corresponds to the south-western part of zone 921 of the ZS9. A few Quaternary and potentially active faults have been identified with extensional kinematics. Hypocentral depths are between 5 and 15 km, and the maximum historical magnitude is MW≈5.7. Calculations in this zone have been performed by assuming normal faulting on four planes, dipping to the WSW at ∼65°.

  24. 24

    Abruzzo: This zone is located in the external part of the Apennines and it is characterised by medium-frequency and -intensity seismic events. Seismogenic structures are essentially SW-dipping thrust faults. Hypocentral depths have been located mainly between 10 and 35 km, and the maximum historical magnitude is MW≈5.5. This zone corresponds to the southern part of zone 918 of the ZS9. Deformation in this area has been modelled with a single plane, dipping to the SW at ∼30° and characterised by thrust faulting.

  25. 25

    Abruzzo Apennines: This zone essentially corresponds to zone 923 of the ZS9, slightly modified in its north-western limits. The zone is affected by high-frequency and -intensity seismicity associated with active normal faults that are mainly SW-dipping. Hypocentral depths are generally in the range of between 5 and 15 km, and the maximum historical magnitude is MW≈7.1, associated with the Fucino earthquake of 1915. The zone also includes the area where on April 2009 a 6.3 earthquake struck the town of L’Aquila (Figs. 1 and 2). Deformation in this area has been modelled by assuming normal faulting on nine SW-dipping planes, with inclination of ∼65°.

  26. 26

    Latium Apennines: This zone mainly coincides with the southern part of zone 920 of ZS9. The dominant kinematics of the seismicity is extensional, with maximum historical magnitude MW≈5.5 (Meletti et al. 2008). This zone has been modelled by assuming normal faulting on five planes, dipping to the SW and with an inclination of ∼65°.

  27. 27

    Alban Hills: This SZ corresponds to zone 922 of the ZS9 and is centred in the Alban Mountains. It is characterised by seismicity associated with the activity of normal faults, oriented NE-SW and dipping NW, as documented in the DISS 3.2 (Basili et al. 2008; DISS Working Group 2015). As such, deformation in this area has been modelled by assuming six planes, dipping to the NW at ∼65° and characterised by normal faulting.

  28. 28

    Emilia Folds: This zone includes the western Emilia folds and Pede-Apennine thrust front, where strike-slip movements were also recognised. The main seismogenic structures are thrusts dipping 45° towards the south; the compression direction (P-axis) is around N-S. Hypocentral depths of the instrumental events are variable between 5 and 30 km. The maximum historical magnitude is MW=5.5. The northern part of this area was not included in any ZS9 area, the southern part was the northern sector of zone 911 of the ZS9. Calculations in this zone have been performed by using seven plane sources dipping to the SW at 30° and thrust faulting.

    For the calculation of the seismic hazard (see Chapter 3), in addition to the SZs described above, it was necessary to consider other SZs, that could influence the seismic hazard in the study area:

  29. 29

    Western Lombard Southern Alpine Margin: This zone corresponds to zone 906 of the ZS9, modified to include the main western events and the thrust fronts of the Lombard Southalpine margin. It maintains the same seismotectonic features as zone 906 (Meletti et al. 2008), i.e. south-verging thrust deformation along active faults dipping to the north. Calculations in this zone have been performed by using a single source dipping to the N at 30° and thrust faulting.

  30. 30

    Eastern Lombard Southern Alpine Margin: This zone corresponds to zone 907 of the ZS9, modified to include the main western events and the thrust fronts of the Lombard Southalpine margin. It maintains the same seismotectonic features as zone 907 (Meletti et al. 2008), i.e. S-verging thrust deformation along active faults dipping to the north. Deformation in this area has been modelled by assuming a single thrust fault, dipping to the N at ∼30°.

  31. 31

    Middle Adriatic: This zone includes major earthquakes in the central Adriatic Sea. This area was not included in ZS9. The seismogenic structures are thrusts dipping to the E-NE at 45°, with hypocenter depths between 5 and 15 km. The maximum expected magnitude is MW≈6. This zone has been modelled by assuming thrust faulting on seven planes, dipping to the E and with an inclination of ∼30°.

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Martelli, L., Santulin, M., Sani, F. et al. Seismic hazard of the Northern Apennines based on 3D seismic sources. J Seismol 21, 1251–1275 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-017-9665-1

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