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New predictive equations for Arias intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand

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Abstract

Arias Intensity (Arias, MIT Press, Cambridge MA, pp 438–483, 1970) is an important measure of the strength of a ground motion, as it is able to simultaneously reflect multiple characteristics of the motion in question. Recently, the effectiveness of Arias Intensity as a predictor of the likelihood of damage to short-period structures has been demonstrated, reinforcing the utility of Arias Intensity for use in both structural and geotechnical applications. In light of this utility, Arias Intensity has begun to be considered as a ground-motion measure suitable for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and earthquake loss estimation. It is therefore timely to develop predictive equations for this ground-motion measure. In this study, a suite of four predictive equations, each using a different functional form, is derived for the prediction of Arias Intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand. The provision of a suite of models is included to allow for epistemic uncertainty to be considered within a PSHA framework. Coefficients are presented for four different horizontal-component definitions for each of the four models. The ground-motion dataset for which the equations are derived include records from New Zealand crustal earthquakes as well as near-field records from worldwide crustal earthquakes. The predictive equations may be used to estimate Arias Intensity for moment magnitudes between 5.1 and 7.5 and for distances (both rjb and rrup) up to 300 km.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ, UK

    Peter J. Stafford

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand

    John B. Berrill

  3. Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand

    Jarg R. Pettinga

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  1. Peter J. Stafford
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  2. John B. Berrill
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  3. Jarg R. Pettinga
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Correspondence to Peter J. Stafford.

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Stafford, P.J., Berrill, J.B. & Pettinga, J.R. New predictive equations for Arias intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand. J Seismol 13, 31–52 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-008-9114-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-008-9114-2

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