Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Evaluating Crown Fire Rate of Spread Predictions from Physics-Based Models

  • Published:
Fire Technology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Modeling the behavior of crown fires is challenging due to the complex set of coupled processes that drive the characteristics of a spreading wildfire and the large range of spatial and temporal scales over which these processes occur. Detailed physics-based modeling approaches such as FIRETEC and the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) simulate fire behavior using computational fluid dynamics based methods to numerically solve the three-dimensional, time dependent, model equations that govern, to some approximation, the component physical processes and their interactions that drive fire behavior. Both of these models have had limited evaluation and have not been assessed for predicting crown fire behavior. In this paper, we utilized a published set of field-scale measured crown fire rate of spread (ROS) data to provide a coarse assessment of crown fire ROS predictions from previously published studies that have utilized WFDS or FIRETEC. Overall, 86% of all simulated ROS values using WFDS or FIRETEC fell within the 95% prediction interval of the empirical data, which was above the goal of 75% for dynamic ecological modeling. However, scarcity of available empirical data is a bottleneck for further assessment of model performance.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Figure 1

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Linn RR, Cunningham P (2005) Numerical simulations of grass fires using a coupled atmosphere–fire model: basic fire behavior and dependence on wind speed. J Geophys Res 110: D13107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Mell W, Jenkins MA, Gould J, Cheney P (2007) A physics-based approach to modelling grassland fires. Int J Wildl Fire 16:1–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Finney MA, Cohen JD, McAllister S, Jolly WM (2013) On the need for a theory of wildland fire spread. Int J Wildl Fire 22:25–36

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. McAllister S, Grenfell I, Hadlow A, Jolly WM, Finney M, Cohen J (2012) Piloted ignition of live forest fuels. Fire Saf J 51:133–142

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Rothermel RC (1983) How to predict the spread and intensity of forest and range fires. General Technical Report INT-RP-143, USDA Forest Service International Forest Range Experiment Station, Logan, UT

  6. Scott JD, Reinhardt ED (2001) Assessing crown Fire potential by linking models of surface and crown fire behavior. Research Paper RMRS-RP-29, USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO

  7. Rothermel RC (1991) Predicting behavior and size of crown fires in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Research Paper INT-RP-438, USDA Forest Service International Forest Range Experiment Station, Logan, UT

  8. Sullivan AL (2009) Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990–2007. 1: Physical and quasi-physical models. Int J Wildl Fire 18:349–368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Sullivan AL (2009) Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990–2007. 2: Empirical and quasi-empirical models. Int J Wildl Fire 18:369–386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Sullivan AL (2009) Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990–2007. 3: Simulation and mathematical analogue models. Int J Wildl Fire 18:387–403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Cruz MG, Alexander ME, Wakimoto RH (2005) Development and testing of models for predicting crown fire rate of spread in conifer forest stands. Can J For Res 35:1626–1639

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Chandler C, Cheney P, Thomas P, Trabaud L, Williams D (1983) Fire in forestry. Volume 1. Forest fire behavior and effects. John Wiley & Sons, New York

    Google Scholar 

  13. Subcommittee on disaster reduction, Grand Challenges for Disaster Reduction Implementation Plan: Wildland Fire (2005) A Report of the Subcommittee of Disaster Reduction, National Science and Technology Council http://www.sdr.gov/grandchallenges.html. Assessed 19 Feb 2015

  14. Morvan D, Dupuy JL, (2004) Modeling the propagation of a wildfire through a Mediterranean shrub using a multiphase formulation. Combust Flame 138:199–210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Linn RR, Reisner J, Colman JJ, Winterkamp J (2002) Studying wildfire behavior using FIRETEC. Int J Wildl Fire 11:233–246

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Zhou X, Mahalingam S, Weise D (2007) Experimental study and large eddy simulation of effect of terrain slope on marginal burning in shrub fuel beds. Proc Combust Inst 31:2547–2555

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Godfrey K (1983) Computational models and their applications. Academic Press, New York, NY

    Google Scholar 

  18. Bossel H (1994) Modeling and Simulation. A.K. Peters, LTD, Natick, MA

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  19. Morvan D (2011) Physical phenomena and length scales governing the behaviour of wildfires: a case for physical modelling. Fire Technol 47:437–460. doi:10.1007/s10694-010-0160-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Mell W, Maranghides A, McDermott R, Manzello SL (2009) Numerical simulation and experiments of burning Douglas-fir trees. Combust Flame 156:2023–2041

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Pimont F, Dupuy JL, Linn RR, Dupont S (2011) Impacts of tree canopy structure on wind flows and fire propagation simulated with FIRETEC. Ann For Sci 68:523–530

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Linn RR, Winterkamp J, Colman JJ, Edminster C, Bailey JD (2005) Modeling interactions between fire and atmosphere in discrete element fuel beds. Int J Wildl Fire 14:37–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Hoffman CM, Morgan P, Mell W, Parsons R, Strand EK, Cook S (2012) Numerical simulation of crown fire hazard immediately after bark beetle-caused mortality in lodgepole pine forests. For Sci 58:178–188

    Google Scholar 

  24. Hoffman CM, Morgan P, Mell W, Parsons R, Strand EK, Cook S (2013) Surface fire intensity influences simulated crown fire behavior in lodgepole pine forests with recent mountain pine beetle-caused tree mortality. For Sci 59:390–399

    Google Scholar 

  25. Linn RR, Sieg CH, Hoffman CM, Winterkamp JL, McMillin JD (2013) Modeling wind fields and fire propagation following bark beetle outbreaks in spatially-heterogeneous pinyon-juniper woodland fuel complexes. Agric For Meteorol 173:139–153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Hoffman CM, Linn RR, Parsons R, Sieg CH, Winterkamp JL (2015) Modeling spatial and temporal dynamics of wind flow and potential fire behavior following a mountain pine beetle outbreak in a lodgepole pine forest. Agric For Meteorol 204:79–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Parsons RA, Mell WE, McCauley P (2011) Linking 3D spatial models of fuels and fire: effects of spatial heterogeneity on fire behavior. Ecol Model 222:679–691

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Alexander ME, Cruz MG (2006) Evaluating a model for predicting active crown fire rate of spread using wildfire observations. Can J For Res 36:3015–3028

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Rykiel EJ (1996) Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation. Ecol Model 90:229–244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. American Society for Testing and Materials (2005) Standard guide for evaluating the predictive capability of deterministic fire models. ASTM E 1355-05a, American Society for Testing Materials, West Conshohocken, PA

  31. Galperin B, Orszag SA (eds) (1993) Large eddy simulation of complex engineering and geophysical flows. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  32. Pitsch H (2009) Large-eddy simulation of turbulent combustion. Ann Rev Fluid Mech 38:453–482

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  33. Linn RR (1997) A transport model for prediction of wildfire behavior. Los Alamos National Lab., Los Alamos

    Book  Google Scholar 

  34. Pimont F, Dupuy JL, Linn RR, Dupont S (2009) Validation of FIRETEC wind-flows over a canopy and a fuel-break. Int J Wildl Fire 18:775–790

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. McGrattan K, Hostikka S, Floyd JE, Mell WE, McDermott R (2013) Fire dynamics simulator, technical reference guide, volume 1: mathematical model. National Institute of Standards and Technology Special Publication 1018, Gaithersburg, MD

  36. Deardorff JW (1980) Stratocumulus-capped mixed layers derived from a three-dimensional model. Boundary Layer Meteorol 18: 495–527

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. McGrattan K, Hostikka S, McDermott, Floyd J, Weinschenk C, Overholt K (2013) Fire dynamics simulator, technical reference guide, volume 2: verification. National Institute of Standards and Technology Special Publication 1018, Gaithersburg, MD

    Book  Google Scholar 

  38. McGrattan K, Hostikka S, McDermott R, Floyd J, Weinschenk C, Overholt K (2013) Fire dynamics simulator, technical reference guide, volume 3: validation. National Institute of Standards and Technology Special Publication 1018, Gaithersburg, MD

    Book  Google Scholar 

  39. Bova AS, Mell W, Hoffman CM, Weise D, Mahalingham S, Simeoni A, Mueller E (2013) Development and evaluation of the physics based wildland-urban interface fire dynamics simulator. In: 4th Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference, Raleigh, NC, International Association of Wildland Fire

  40. Mueller E, Mell W, Simeoni A (2014) Large eddy simulation of forest canopy flow for wildland fire modeling. Can J For Res 44:1534–1544

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Castle D, Mell WE, Miller EF (2013) Examination of the wildland-urban interface fire dynamics simulator in modeling of laboratory-scale surface-to-crown fire transition. Paper # 070FR-0300, 8th U.S. Nat Combust Meet, Combustion Institute, Pittsburgh, PA

  42. Overholt KJ, Cabrera J, Kurzawski A, Koopersmith M, Ezekoye OA (2012) Characterization of fuel properties and fire spread rates for little bluestem grass. Fire Technol 50:9–38. doi:10.1007/s10694-012-0266-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Overholt KJ, Kurzawski A, Cabrera J, Koopersimith J, Ezekoye OA (2014) Fire behavior and heat fluxes for lab-scale burning of little bluestem grass. Fire Saf J 67:70–81

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Dupuy JL, Pimont F, Linn RR, Clements CB (2014) FIRETEC evaluation against the FireFlux experiment: preliminary results. In Viegas DX (Ed) Chapter 1—fire behavior and modeling. Advances in forest fire research, Coimbra University Press, Coimbra

    Google Scholar 

  45. Pimont F, Dupuy JL, Linn RR (2014) Fire Effects on the Physical Environment in the WUI using FIRETEC. In: Viegas DX (ed) Chapter 1—fire behavior and modeling. Advances in forest fire research, Coimbra University Press, Coimbra

    Google Scholar 

  46. Linn RR, Anderson K, Winterkamp J, Brooks A, Wotton M, Dupuy JL, Pimont F, Edminster C (2012) Incorporating field wind data into FIRETEC simulations of the international crown fire modeling experiment (ICFME): preliminary lessons learned. Can J For Res 42:879–898

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Alexander ME, Lanoville RA (1987) Wildfires as a source of fire behavior data: a case study from Northwest Territories, Canada. In: Conference Papers, Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, April 21–24, San Diego, CA. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA

  48. Lanoville RA, Schmidt RE (1985) Wildfire documentation in the Northwest Territories: a case study of Fort Simpson 40-1983. In: Alexander ME (ed), Proc Section West Region Fire Weather Committee Scientific and Technical Seminar, March 6, Edmonton, AB

  49. Quintilio D, Lawson BD, Walkinshaw S, Van Nest T (2001) Final documentation report–Chisholm Fire (LWF-063). Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, Forest Protection Division Report I/036, Edmonton, AB

  50. Alexander ME, Stocks BJ, Lawson BD (1991) Fire behavior in black spruce—lichen woodland: the Porter Lake Project. Canadian Forest Service Information Report NOR-X-310, Edmonton, AB

  51. Hirsch KG, Flannigan MD (1990) Meteorological and fire behavior characteristics of the 1989 fire season in Manitoba, Canada. In: Viegas DX (ed.), Proceedings of International Conference on Forest Fire Research, Nov 19–22. University Coimbra Press, Coimbra

  52. Alexander ME, Janz B, Quintilio D (1983) Analysis of extreme wildfire behavior in east-central Alberta: a case study. In: Postprint Volume, Sev Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, April 25–29, Fort Collins, Colorado. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA

  53. De Groot MJ, Alexander ME (1986) Wildfire behavior on the Canadian Shield: a case study of the 1980 Chachukew Fire, east-central Saskatchewan. In: Alexander ME (ed) Proceedings of Central Region Fire Weather Committee Scientific and Technical Seminar, April 3 Winnipeg, Manitoba. Canadian Forest Service North Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB

  54. Stocks BJ, Flannigan MD (1987) Analysis of the behavior and associated weather for a 1986 northwestern Ontario wildfire: Red Lake No. 7. In: Ninth Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, April 21–24, San Diego, CA. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA

  55. Stocks BJ (1989) Fire behavior in mature jack pine. Can J For Res 19:783–790

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. Hirsch KG (1989) Analysis of the fire behavior associated with three 1988 spring wildfires in central Canada. In: MacIver DC, Auld H, Whitewood R (eds) Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, April, 17–21, Ottawa, Ontario. For Can Environ Can, Ottawa, ON

  57. Hirsch KG (1989) Documenting wildfire behavior: the 1988 Brereton Lake Fire, Manitoba. Fire Manag Notes 50:45–48

    Google Scholar 

  58. Stocks BJ, Walker JD (1973) Climatic conditions before and during four significant forest fire situations in Ontario. Ontario Region Forest Research Laboratory, Sault Ste. Marie, ON

    Google Scholar 

  59. Van Wagner CE (1965) Story of an intense crown fire at Petawawa. Pulp Pap Mag Can 66: WR-358

    Google Scholar 

  60. Stocks BJ (1975) The 1974 wildfire situation in northwestern Ontario. Canadian Forestry Service Information Report 0-X-232, Sault Ste. Marie, ON

  61. Stocks BJ (1987) Fire behavior in immature jack pine. Can J For Res 17:80–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  62. Street RB, Stocks BJ (1983) Synoptic-scale fire weather in northwestern Ontario. In Postprint Volume, Seventh Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, April 25–29, Fort Collins, CO. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA

  63. Alexander ME (1992) The 1990 Stephan Bridge Road Fire: a Canadian perspective on the fire danger conditions. Wildfire News and Notes 6:6

    Google Scholar 

  64. National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) (1991) Stephan Bridge Road Fire case study. National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA

    Google Scholar 

  65. Simard AJ, Haines DA, Blank RW, Frost JS (1983) The Mack Lake Fire. General Technical Report NC-GTR-83. USDA Forest Service, North Central Forest Experiment Station, St. Paul, MN

  66. Kiil AD, Grigel JE (1969) The May 1968 forest conflagrations in central Alberta—A review of fire weather, fuels and fire behavior. Canadian Forest Service Information Report A-X-24, Edmonton, AB

  67. Rothermel RC, Mutch RW (1986) Behavior of the life-threatening butte fire: August 27–29, 1985. Fire Manag Notes 47:14–24

    Google Scholar 

  68. Alexander ME (1991) The 1985 Butte Fire in central Idaho: a Canadian perspective on the associated burning conditions. In Nodvin, SC, Waldrop TA (eds) (1991) Fire and the environment: ecological and cultural perspectives, proceedings of an international symposium, March 20–24; Knoxville, TN. USDA Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station. General Technical Report GTR-SE-69. Asheville, NC

  69. Windisch AG, Good RE (1991) Fire behavior and stem survival in the New Jersey pine plains. In: Hermann M, Komarek R, Myers RL, Landers LL, Neel WL (eds) (1991) High intensity fires in wildlands: management challenges and options. Proceedings of 17th Tall Timbers Fire Ecology Conferences, May 18–21, Tallahassee, FL. Timbers Research Station, Tallahassee, FL

  70. Wade DD, Ward DE (1973) An analysis of the Air Force Bomb Range Fire. Research Paper SE-RP-105. USDA Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Ashville, NC

  71. McAlpine RS, Stocks BJ, Van Wagner CE, Lawson BD, Alexander ME, Lynham TJ (1990) Forest fire behavior research in Canada. In: Viegas DX (ed) Proceedings of International Conference on Forest Fire Research, Nov 19–22, Coimbra, Portugal. University Coimbra Press, Coimbra

  72. McAlpine RS, Lawson BD, Taylor E (1991) Fire spread across a slope. In: Andrews PL, Potts DF (eds) Proceedings of 11th Conference Fire Forest Meteorology, April 16–19, Missoula, MT. The Society of American Foresters, SAF Pub No 91–04, Bethesda, MD

  73. Graham RT (2003) Hayman fire case study. General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-114. USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ogden, UT

  74. DeCoste JH, Wade DD, Deeming JE (1968) The Gaston Fire. Research Paper SE-RP-43. USDA Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Ashville, NC

  75. Sieg CH, Linn RR, Hoffman CM, McMillin J, Pimont F, Winterkamp J, Parsons RA (2014) Modeling fire behavior in heterogeneous fuel resulting from bark beetle outbreaks. In: Viegas DX (ed) Proceedings of 7th International Conference Forest Fire Research, Coimbra University Press, Coimbra

  76. Ziegler J (2014) Impacts of treatments on forest structure and fire behavior in dry western forests. MS Thesis, Co St University, Fort Collins, CO

  77. Alexander ME, Cruz MG (2013) Are the applications of wildland fire behaviour models getting ahead of their evaluation again? Environ Model Softw 41:65–71

    Article  Google Scholar 

  78. Bellocchi G, Rivington M, Donatelli M, Matthews K (2010) Validation of biophysical models: issues and methodologies. A review. Agron Sustain Dev 30:109–130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  79. Harmel RD, Smith PK (2007) Consideration of measurement uncertainty in the evaluation of goodness-of-fit in hydrologic and water quality modeling. J Hydrol 337:326–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This research was supported in part by Joint Fire Science Program project 13-1-04-53, USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, General Joint Venture Agreement No. PNW 12-JV-11261987-102, USDA Forest Service Research (both Rocky Mountain Research Station and Washington office) National Fire Plan Dollars through Research Joint Venture Agreement 11-JV-11221633-207 with Colorado State University, and Interagency Agreements 09-IA-11221633-215 and 13-IA-11221633-103 with Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA

    C. M. Hoffman & J. Ziegler

  2. Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA

    J. Canfield & R. R. Linn

  3. USDA Forest Service Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA

    W. Mell

  4. USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Flagstaff, AZ, USA

    C. H. Sieg

  5. INRA UR629, Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes, Avignon, France

    F. Pimont

  6. Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, 1472 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA

    C. M. Hoffman

Authors
  1. C. M. Hoffman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. J. Canfield
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. R. R. Linn
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. W. Mell
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. C. H. Sieg
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. F. Pimont
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. J. Ziegler
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to C. M. Hoffman.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Hoffman, C.M., Canfield, J., Linn, R.R. et al. Evaluating Crown Fire Rate of Spread Predictions from Physics-Based Models. Fire Technol 52, 221–237 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-015-0500-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-015-0500-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation