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A Synthesis of Hempelian and Hypothetico-Deductive Confirmation

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Abstract

This paper synthesizes confirmation by instances and confirmation by successful predictions, and thereby the Hempelian and the hypothetico-deductive traditions in confirmation theory. The merger of these two approaches is subsequently extended to the piecemeal confirmation of entire theories. It is then argued that this synthetic account makes a useful contribution from both a historical and a systematic perspective.

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Notes

  1. See Kuipers (2000) for an extended discussion of qualitative versus Bayesian confirmation theory.

  2. Definition 2 will make this notion precise in modern logical terms. See Hempel (1943) for the original account.

  3. A generalization of the content part relation to richer languages that can be used for H-D confirmation, e.g. languages with identity, is given in Gemes (1997). The definitions below are, with the exception of Definition 2, taken from Gemes (2006). Quantifiers are treated substitutionally.

  4. This example is due to Ken Gemes.

  5. See Gemes (1998) and Schurz (2005) for such criticisms. Note that (SynT) avoids the most pressing criticisms raised in these papers (e.g., Gemes 1998, 7–8).

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  1. Tilburg Center for Logic and Philosophy of Science, Tilburg University, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE, Tilburg, The Netherlands

    Jan Sprenger

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  1. Jan Sprenger
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Sprenger, J. A Synthesis of Hempelian and Hypothetico-Deductive Confirmation. Erkenn 78, 727–738 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10670-013-9487-7

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