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Water resources planning and management based on system dynamics: a case study of Yulin city

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Abstract

Water security is an integral aspect of the socio-economic development in China. Nevertheless, water resources are under persistent pressures because of the growing population, heavy irrigation, climate change effects and short-term policies. Traditional management approaches narrowly focus on increasing supply and reducing demand without considering the complex interactions and feedback loops that govern water resource behaviour. Whereas these approaches may provide quick fix solutions, they often lead to unanticipated, sometimes catastrophic, delayed outcomes. Therefore, water management needs to take a holistic approach that caters to the interdependent physical (e.g. water inflows, outflows) and behavioural (e.g. decision rules, perceptions) processes in the system. Unlike reductionist approaches, System Dynamics (SD) takes a system-level view for modelling and analysing the complex structure (cause–effect relationships, feedback loops, delays) that generates the systemic behaviour. Simulating the SD model allows assessing long-term system-wide impacts, exploring leverage points and communicating results to decision makers. In this paper, we follow an SD modelling approach to examine the future of water security in Yulin City. First, we present a conceptual model for integrating water supply and demand. Based on this, we build an SD model to simulate and analyse the dynamics of water resource over time. The model output is tested to ensure that it satisfactorily replicates the historical behaviour of the system. The model is used to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of various supply/demand management options. Three scenarios are designed and examined: business-as-usual, supply management, and demand management. Results show that current management regime cannot effectively meet the future water demand. Whereas supply acquisition provides short-term benefits, it cannot cope with the growing population. A combination of conservation measures and demand-management instruments is regarded the most effective strategy for balancing supply and demand.

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2010CB951104), (No. 2010CB951103) and Non-profit Industry Program of the Ministry of Water Resource of the People’s Republic of China (No. 200801001) for financial support of this research. Thanks also to the helpful comments received from the anonymous reviewers and the editors.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, 210029, Nanjing, China

    Xiao-jun Wang & Jiu-fu Liu

  2. Research Centre for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, 210029, Nanjing, China

    Jian-yun Zhang, Guo-qing Wang & Rui-min He

  3. Urban Water Balance, Climate and Water Division, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, 3008, Australia

    Amgad Elmahdi

  4. Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management (iCAM), Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

    Sondoss Elsawah

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  1. Xiao-jun Wang
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  2. Jian-yun Zhang
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  3. Jiu-fu Liu
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  4. Guo-qing Wang
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  5. Rui-min He
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  6. Amgad Elmahdi
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Xiao-jun Wang.

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Appendices

Appendices

1.1 Appendix 1

See Table 2.

Table 2 Abbreviations of variables and parameters in the YulinSD model
Full size table

1.2 Appendix 2: Main equations of the YulinSD model

  1. (1)

    GRGDP = (0.09 + RAMP(−0.05, 10, 20) · (1 − WSR · 5))

  2. (2)

    GR1GDP = MAX(GRGDP, 0.08)

  3. (3)

    GGDP = GDP · GR1GDP

  4. (4)

    GDP = INTEG(GGDP, 72879)

  5. (5)

    TIO = GDP · PIT

  6. (6)

    TPIT([(1980, 0) − (2050, 1)] , (1980, 0.17), (1985, 0.2), (1990, 0.3), (1995, 0.35), (2000, 0.31), (2005, 0.28), (2010, 0.35), (2020, 0.38), (2030, 0.4))

  7. (7)

    PIT = TPIT(Time)

  8. (8)

    TPIO([(1980, 0) − (2050, 1)], (1980, 0.195), (1985, 0.193), (1990, 0.21), (1995, 0.36), (2000, 0.5), (2005, 0.67), (2010, 0.6), (2020, 0.55), (2030, 0.5))

  9. (9)

    PIO = TPIO(Time)

  10. (10)

    IO = GDP · PIO

  11. (11)

    TQIWD([(1980, 0) − (2050, 500)] , (1980, 468), (1985, 411), (1990, 389), (1995, 170), (2000, 118 ), (2005, 52), (2010, 46), (2020, 43), (2030, 37))

  12. (12)

    QIWD = TQIWD(Time)

  13. (13)

    QTIWD = 13

  14. (14)

    CRP = 0.0166

  15. (15)

    CHP = TP · CRP

  16. (16)

    TP = INTEG(CHP, 233.1)

  17. (17)

    TUR([(1980, 0) − (2050, 1)] , (1980, 0.07), (1985, 0.092), (1990, 0.096), (1995, 0.115), (2000 , 0.15), (2005, 0.165), (2010, 0.201), (2020, 0.288), (2030, 0.375))

  18. (18)

    UR = TUR(Time)

  19. (19)

    UP = UR · TP

  20. (20)

    RP = TP − UP

  21. (21)

    TQU([(1980, 60) − (2050, 150)], (1980, 67.6), (1985, 74.8), (1990, 83.3), (1995, 88.7), (2000, 98.6), (2005, 101), (2010, 97), (2020, 105), (2030, 110))

  22. (22)

    QU = TQU(Time)

  23. (23)

    TQUE([(1980, 0) − (2050, 30)] , (1980, 5), (1985, 6), (1990, 7), (1995, 6), (2000, 7), (2005, 8 ), (2010, 10), (2020, 13), (2030, 15))

  24. (24)

    QUE = TQUE(Time)

  25. (25)

    TQR([(1980, 30) − (2050, 60)], (1980, 33), (1985, 34), (1990, 45), (1995, 45), (2000, 47), (2005, 34), (2010, 46), (2020, 51), (2030, 56))

  26. (26)

    QR = TQR(Time)

  27. (27)

    GRWI = 0.015

  28. (28)

    GWI = GDP · GRWI

  29. (29)

    WI = INTEG(GWI, 2550)

  30. (30)

    CO = WI · 0.3

  31. (31)

    CP = WI · 0.15

  32. (32)

    CD = WI · 0.15

  33. (33)

    CM = WI · 0.2

  34. (34)

    CWT = IF THEN ELSE(Time > 2008, WI · 0.2, 0)

  35. (35)

    ERP = CWT/TW

  36. (36)

    P = TWS · 0.8

  37. (37)

    S = P · 0.45

  38. (38)

    T = P · 0.05

  39. (39)

    ENP = (S + CO + T)/TWS

  40. (40)

    REP = (CD + CM + CP)/TWS

  41. (41)

    WP = ENP + ERP + REP

  42. (42)

    CRPFA = 0.0131

  43. (43)

    CPFA = PFA · CRPFA

  44. (44)

    PFA = INTEG(CPFA, 98.39)

  45. (45)

    TQPFWD([(1980, 0) − (2050, 400)], (1980, 390), (1985, 362), (1990, 322), (1995, 294), (2000, 273), (2005, 255), (2010, 140), (2020, 129), (2030, 122))

  46. (46)

    QVPWD = TQVPWD(Time)

  47. (47)

    PFWD = QPFWD · PFA

  48. (48)

    CRIFA = −0.04

  49. (49)

    CIFA = IFA · CRIFA

  50. (50)

    IFA = INTEG(CIFA, 4.14)

  51. (51)

    TQIFWD([(1980, 0) − (2050, 2000)], (1980, 1066), (1985, 1024), (1990, 972), (1995, 911), (2000, 809), (2005, 1187), (2010, 1057), (2020, 0), (2030, 0))

  52. (52)

    QIFWD = TQIFWD(Time)

  53. (53)

    IFWD = QIFWD · IFA

  54. (54)

    PUWD = NR · 0.05

  55. (55)

    IEWD = BF + PUWD

  56. (56)

    UEWD = UP · QUE

  57. (57)

    GRRWS = 0.015

  58. (58)

    GRWS = RWS · GRRWS

  59. (59)

    RWS = INTEG(GRWS, 155)

  60. (60)

    GRDWS = −0.0008

  61. (61)

    GDWS = DWS · GRDWS

  62. (62)

    DWS = INTEG(GDWS, 26194)

  63. (63)

    GRPWS = 0.0035

  64. (64)

    GPWS = GRPWS · PWS

  65. (65)

    PWS = INTEG (GPWS, 7601)

  66. (66)

    SWS = DWS + PWS + RWS

  67. (67)

    GROWS = IF THEN ELSE (Time > 2005, 0.03, 0.01)

  68. (68)

    GOWS = GROWS · OWS

  69. (69)

    OWS = INTEG (GOWS, 20)

  70. (70)

    TWT([(1980, 0) − (2100, 100000)] , (1980, 0), (2019, 0), (2020, 4500), (2030, 92000))

  71. (71)

    WT = TWT (Time)

  72. (72)

    GRGWS = 0.0025

  73. (73)

    GGWS = GWS · GRGWS

  74. (74)

    GWS = INTEG(GGWS, 8882)

  75. (75)

    TWS = OWS + GWS + SWS + WT

  76. (76)

    GRDFA = 0.1

  77. (77)

    GDFA = DFA · GRDFA

  78. (78)

    DFA = INTEG(GDFA, 20)

  79. (79)

    DFWD = DFA · QDFWD/10000

  80. (80)

    OEWD = UEWD + DFWD

  81. (81)

    EWD = IEWD + OEWD

  82. (82)

    GRFIPA = 0.00041

  83. (83)

    GFIPA = FIPA · GRFIPA

  84. (84)

    FIPA = INTEG (GFIPA, 0.55)

  85. (85)

    TQFIWD([(1980, 0) − (2050, 1500)] , (1980, 906), (1985, 1099), (1990, 1192), (1995, 890), (2000, 888), (2005, 1285), (2010, 1278), (2020, 1218), (2030, 1165))

  86. (86)

    QFIWD = TQFIWD (Time)

  87. (87)

    FIWD = QFIWD · FIPA

  88. (88)

    CRVFA = 0.1

  89. (89)

    CVFA = VFA · CRVFA

  90. (90)

    VFA = INTEG(CVFA, 1.94)

  91. (91)

    TQVFWD([(1980, 0) − (2050, 1000)], (1980, 989), (1985, 900), (1990, 874), (1995, 843), (2000, 808), (2005, 327), (2010, 318), (2020, 308), (2030, 300))

  92. (92)

    QVFWD = TQVFWD(Time)

  93. (93)

    VFWD = QVFWD · VFA

  94. (94)

    IRWD = IFWD + PFWD +WWD

  95. (95)

    CRGA = 0.024

  96. (96)

    CGA = GA · CRGA

  97. (97)

    GA = INTEG(CGA, 0.65)

  98. (98)

    TQGWD([(1980, 0) − (2050, 400)], (1980, 382), (1985, 370), (1990, 352), (1995, 223), (2000, 217), (2005, 238), (2010, 205), (2020, 195), (2030, 187))

  99. (99)

    QGWD = TQGWD(Time)

  100. (100)

    GWD = QGWD · GA

  101. (101)

    CRFOA = 0.06

  102. (102)

    CFOA = FOA · CRFOA

  103. (103)

    FOA = INTEG(CFOA, 1.32)

  104. (104)

    TQFOWD([(1980, 0) − (2050, 400)] , (1980, 384), (1985, 379), (1990, 389), (1995, 240), (2000, 199), (2005, 193), (2010, 178), (2020, 168), (2030, 159))

  105. (105)

    QFOWD = TQFOWD(Time)

  106. (106)

    FOWD = QFOWD · FOA

  107. (107)

    CRSAA = 0.00064

  108. (108)

    CSAA = SAA·CRSAA

  109. (109)

    SAA = INTEG(CSAA, 272.69)

  110. (110)

    TQSAWD([(1980, 5) − (2050, 40)], (1980, 9), (1985, 10), (1990, 11), (1995, 11), (2000, 11), (2005, 12), (2010, 12), (2020, 14), (2030, 16))

  111. (111)

    QSAWD = TQSAWD(Time)

  112. (112)

    SAWD = SAA·QSAWD · 365/1000

  113. (113)

    CRBAA = 0.00039

  114. (114)

    CBAA = BAA · CRBAA

  115. (115)

    BAA = INTEG(CBAA, 34.23)

  116. (116)

    TQBAWD([(1980, 10) − (2050, 50)] , (1980, 19), (1985, 24), (1990, 26), (1995, 26), (2000, 28), (2005, 19), (2010, 30), (2020, 33), (2030, 36))

  117. (117)

    QBAWD = TQBAWD(Time)

  118. (118)

    BAWD = BAA · QBAWD · 365/1000

  119. (119)

    AHWD = BAWD + SAWD

  120. (120)

    FAFWD = FOWD + FIWD + AHWD + GWD

  121. (121)

    AWD = IRWD + FAFWD

  122. (122)

    IWD = IO · QIWD/10000

  123. (123)

    IW = IWD · 0.3

  124. (124)

    PWD = AWD + IWD + TIWD

  125. (125)

    UDWD = UP · QU · 365/1000

  126. (126)

    RDWD = RP · QR · 365/1000

  127. (127)

    DWD = RDWD + UDWD

  128. (128)

    TW = IW + DW

  129. (129)

    DW = DWD · 0.8

  130. (130)

    TWD = (3/WP)^(((63317 − (PWD + EWD + TDWD))/(1 − WP))·(WP/(PWD + EWD + TDWD)))·63317

  131. (131)

    WSR = IF THEN ELSE( TWS − TWD < 0, (TWD − TWS)/TWD, 0)

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Wang, Xj., Zhang, Jy., Liu, Jf. et al. Water resources planning and management based on system dynamics: a case study of Yulin city. Environ Dev Sustain 13, 331–351 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-010-9264-6

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